OPEC+ will increase oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day starting in July 2026.
The OPEC+ alliance continued its production easing program for the fourth consecutive month despite supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iran conflict.
OPEC+ continues its roadmap for easing production quotas.
At their meeting on June 7, 2026, OPEC+ member countries agreed to increase oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day starting in July 2026. This marks the fourth consecutive month the group has eased its production cut commitments, reflecting an effort to maintain supply amidst a volatile energy market.
This decision comes as the conflict between the US and Iran continues to severely impact shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic waterway handled approximately 20% of the world's energy supply before hostilities broke out in late February 2026.
The difference between the quota and the actual output.
Despite the upward adjustment of quotas, the bloc's actual production has shown a sharp downward trend. The seven core members – Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman – increased their total quota by nearly 600,000 barrels per day between April and June 2026. However, OPEC+'s actual crude oil production in April 2026 is only 33.19 million barrels per day, significantly lower than the 42.77 million barrels per day recorded in February 2026.
The main reason is the disruption to exports from Gulf countries. Under the new agreement, Iraq alone will receive an additional quota of 26,000 barrels per day starting in July 2026. Analysts believe that this quota increase is more symbolic than having a real impact, as access to the market via the Strait of Hormuz has not yet been fully restored.
Oil price trends and production recovery plans
In financial markets, Brent crude oil prices are currently fluctuating around $93 per barrel due to optimism about a potential de-escalation of geopolitical tensions. However, this price remains significantly higher than the $72 per barrel level seen before the conflict erupted.
This increase in quotas is part of a roadmap to restore the 1.65 million barrels per day of production cuts made in 2023. After the UAE leaves OPEC in May 2026, the group will have approximately 567,000 barrels per day left to bring back to the market. If the current pace is maintained, OPEC+ could complete the production restoration process by the end of the third quarter of 2026.
In the long term, OPEC+ ministers confirmed that the overall production policy will remain unchanged until the end of 2026. The group is focusing on reassessing the production capacity of its members to determine new production quotas for the period from 2027 onwards.
