OPEC+ will increase its production quota by an additional 188,000 barrels of oil per day starting in July 2026.
The OPEC+ group has just agreed to increase oil production for the fourth consecutive month in an effort to restore energy supply, despite geopolitical obstacles in the Strait of Hormuz region.
At a meeting held on June 7, 2026, member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) agreed to increase oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day, effective from July 2026. This marks the fourth consecutive month that the alliance has eased its production cut commitments, reflecting an effort to stabilize the global energy market.
Challenges arising from shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz
The decision to adjust quotas comes amid ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, causing serious disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. This is a strategic shipping lane that handled approximately 20% of the world's energy supply before the outbreak of hostilities.
Despite the relaxed quotas, actual data shows that the group's production is declining due to logistical problems in the Gulf region. Specifically, OPEC+ crude oil production in April 2026 reached only 33.19 million barrels per day, significantly lower than the 42.77 million barrels per day recorded in February 2026. Analysts believe that the increased quotas are now more symbolic than having a real impact, as export capacity through the Strait of Hormuz has not been fully restored.
Roadmap for restoring oil production and price fluctuations.
This increase in quotas is part of a plan to restore the 1.65 million barrels per day that were cut in 2023. According to Reuters' calculations, after the UAE leaves the organization on May 1, 2026, OPEC+ will have approximately 567,000 barrels per day to bring back to the market. If the growth rate of 188,000 barrels per day is maintained in the following months, the alliance could complete the production restoration roadmap by the end of the third quarter of 2026.
On the global market, Brent crude oil prices fluctuated around $93 per barrel at the end of last week. This price level reflects investor optimism about the possibility of controlling the conflict in the Middle East, although it remains significantly higher than the $72 per barrel recorded at the end of February 2026.
Exploitation plans of member states
Under the new agreement, Iraq will be allowed to increase its production by an additional 26,000 barrels per day starting in July. Previously, between April and June 2026, the seven core members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, increased their total quota by nearly 600,000 barrels per day.
Overall, OPEC+ ministers maintained their common production policy until the end of 2026. The group also reaffirmed that reassessing the production capacity of each member country will be a key basis for establishing new production quotas from 2027.
