OPEC+ to increase oil production from October, prioritizing protecting market share
OPEC+ decided to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels/day from October 2025, signaling a shift to protecting market share.
Last weekend, OPEC+ surprised the market by announcing it would increase oil production in October by an additional 137,000 barrels per day. This is a rare reversal of previous production cuts that have been maintained for years to stabilize the market.
OPEC+ has been gradually restoring cuts of 2.5 million barrels per day since April. With the new decision, the eight-member group will continue to ease 1.65 million barrels per day more than a year ahead of schedule.
Aim to regain market share
Experts say the move is not just about adding production, but also a clear message: OPEC+ is willing to accept softer oil prices to protect its position in the market.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq are the countries with the most capacity to increase production, and the move to “open the valve” has more strategic significance than actual value in terms of volume.
Meanwhile, Russia needs high prices to offset its budget, which is under pressure from sanctions. It is this difference in interests that is revealing cracks within OPEC+.
Risk of oversupply and competition with US shale oil
According to Macquarie expert Walt Chancellor, the market could face a supply glut by 2026, when the US reached a record production of 13.6 million barrels/day in June. Despite the decrease in the number of rigs, US exploitation productivity is still high, and can offset the shortage if oil prices fall.
He believes that if OPEC+ continues to maintain this strategy, WTI oil prices could fall to $50–55/barrel, a level low enough to force US shale oil to cut production.
Impact on world oil prices
The OPEC+ decision coincided with macro turmoil in the US. The weak August jobs report pushed down Treasury yields and led markets to bet the Fed would cut interest rates three times before the end of the year.
OPEC+ is scheduled to meet next on October 5. The alliance said it will be flexible and can accelerate, pause or reverse production increases depending on market developments.
