Opta identifies Morocco as the top contender for AFCON 2025.
Opta's supercomputer rates Morocco as the top contender for AFCON 2025 with a 19.1% probability, but powerhouses like Egypt, Senegal, Algeria, and Nigeria all have a chance in a tournament known for its unpredictability.
The 2025 African Cup of Nations (AFCON 2025) is about to kick off in Morocco, with the host nation ranked as the top contender for the title by the Opta supercomputer. However, the history of the tournament always reminds us that in AFCON, no scenario is certain.
With only days left before kick-off, Opta has released its predictions for the teams most likely to lift the trophy in Morocco. The percentages reflect the data model's assessment of the strength, form, and context of each team, from hosts Morocco to former champions like Egypt and Algeria, and current runners-up Nigeria.
Top contenders for the championship according to the Opta supercomputer.
| Team | Probability of winning the championship according to Opta |
|---|---|
| Oregon | 19.1% |
| Egypt | 12.4% |
| Senegal | 12.3% |
| Algeria | 12.0% |
| Nigeria | 7.3% |
Looking at the predictions, home advantage and current form give Morocco a slight edge over the rest. Close behind are familiar names in African football such as Egypt, Senegal, Algeria, and Nigeria, creating a broad and balanced group of competitors.
Morocco: The host nation leads with 19.1%
Morocco enters AFCON 2025 in ideal circumstances: playing at home and boasting an impressive 18-match winning streak. According to Opta, this gives them the highest probability of winning the tournament, at 19.1%.
Coach Walid Regragui's team is built on a foundation of tactical discipline, combined with attacking speed. Players like Brahim Diaz, Youssef En-Nesyri, and goalkeeper Yassine Bounou bring quality to all three lines, from playmaking and goal-scoring ability to defensive solidity.
Their defensive solidity and consistent form make the Atlas Lions a team every side wants to avoid. However, even as the top contender, Morocco must face the reality that AFCON rarely lives up to predictions.
Egypt: 12.4% for the experienced king.
The most successful team in AFCON history returns to the tournament with unsettled debts, especially after recent tournaments that have failed to meet expectations. According to Opta, Egypt has a 12.4% chance of winning the championship, placing them in close pursuit of Morocco.
Egypt still relies heavily on Mohamed Salah. The attacking star continues to crave his first continental title, despite periods of inconsistent form at club level. Coupled with the experience of a team that has won the title seven times in the past, this provides a solid foundation for their ability to go far.
For the Pharaohs, their winning history, their tenacity in knockout matches, and Salah's moments of brilliance are the factors reflected in Opta's 12.4% rating.
Senegal: 12.3% for the 2021 champions.
Following closely behind Egypt is Senegal, with a 12.3% probability of winning according to Opta. The 2021 champions arrive at this tournament with renewed energy under coach Pape Thiaw.
Led by Sadio Mane and supported by energetic attacking players like Ismaila Sarr and Iliman Ndiaye, the Teranga Lions combine physical strength with tactical balance. They are considered one of the most well-rounded teams in the tournament.
Having recently won the tournament, Senegal enters AFCON 2025 with confidence and experience, making them a direct contender that Morocco and Egypt cannot afford to underestimate.
Algeria: 12.0% and the journey to rediscover the winning formula.
Algeria has a 12.0% chance of winning the tournament according to Opta, only slightly behind Egypt and Senegal. Despite recent disappointments, they remain a formidable opponent.
Riyad Mahrez continues to be a creative cornerstone of the team's play, while striker Mohamed Amoura has brought goals and excitement since the World Cup qualifiers. Being drawn into a tough group means the Foxes must quickly rediscover the formula that helped them win the title in 2019.
The 12.0% figure reflects both the potential and the question marks surrounding Algeria: if they can resolve their recent problems, they are capable of returning to the top.
Nigeria: 7.3% for the reigning runner-up.
With a 7.3% chance of winning the title, Nigeria ranks fifth in Opta's predictions. The AFCON 2023 runner-up boasts one of the most explosive attacking lineups in the tournament, led by Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman.
However, the shortage of personnel in defense and a tough group could make their journey difficult. The squad of players accustomed to playing in major leagues means the Super Eagles remain a real threat in every match.
For Nigeria, the challenge at AFCON 2025 is to maximize their attacking strength while minimizing the risks from gaps in their defense – a factor that could determine whether they are eliminated early or advance further.
The challengers can spring surprises.
Besides the top five contenders mentioned above, AFCON 2025 also features several teams with the potential to go far. Defending champions Ivory Coast, along with Tunisia, Mali, Cameroon, South Africa, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, are all strong contenders.
The tournament's history shows that at least one of these teams usually exceeds expectations. Exciting surprises, upsets, and pivotal matches are always a hallmark of AFCON.
AFCON 2025: A tournament worth watching for Vietnamese fans.
In Vietnam, AFCON has not received as much attention as European tournaments like EURO. However, it is a long-standing tournament with many attractive elements both on and off the field, from the playing style to the atmosphere in the stands.
With Morocco considered the top contender by Opta, but many other big names also having grounds to dream of the title, AFCON 2025 promises to be an unpredictable race. All information and developments of the tournament will be continuously updated on BongDa.Com.Vn.
