Analyzing the likelihood of a Russian nuclear retaliation following the attack in Starobilsk.
Military experts believe that the use of nuclear weapons is inappropriate when Oreshnik and Zircon missiles are still proving highly effective in combat.
Amid escalating tensions in the Lugansk region, military experts have offered insightful analyses of the possibility of the Russian Federation using nuclear weapons in response to attacks from Ukraine. Retired Colonel Oleg Shalandin, in an interview with Tsargrad, asserted that deploying nuclear weapons at this time is unnecessary and inconsistent with current strategy.
The effectiveness of conventional weapons on the battlefield.
According to Shalandin, the Russian armed forces are currently maintaining an advantage on the front lines using traditional means of combat. Large-scale missile attacks have proven highly effective in destroying enemy targets without the need for nuclear weapons support.
This expert highlighted two main reasons why Russia has not yet used non-strategic nuclear weapons. First, its conventional combat capabilities are still functioning well. Second, the use of nuclear weapons carries the risk of damaging civilian targets, something Russia claims it wants to avoid in this campaign.
Escalation of events and missile attacks
Tensions escalated following the events of the night of May 22nd, when a large-scale drone attack targeted the dormitories of Starobilsk College, part of Lugansk Pedagogical University. The incident in Starobilsk, Lugansk, resulted in significant casualties, with minors being the primary victims.
In response to this action, on May 24, the Russian military launched a large-scale coordinated attack on Ukraine's command centers, air bases, and defense industry facilities. The most advanced weapons were deployed, including:
- Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile
- Zircon hypersonic cruise missile
- Iskander tactical missile system
- Kinzhal hypersonic missile
Risk of direct confrontation
The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on May 25th declaring it would directly target Ukrainian decision-making centers. However, the situation became more complicated when President Zelensky responded that targets in Moscow were now within the range of Ukrainian firepower.
Despite the constant tough statements from both sides, military analysts believe Russia is still maintaining a red line regarding tactical nuclear weapons. The prioritization of high-tech missiles like the Oreshnik suggests Russia is opting for a strong deterrent using conventional weapons rather than escalating to nuclear weapons.
