Analyzing the US global arms market share: The 43% figure and the actual data.
US officials claim the country holds 43% of the global arms market, however, independent reports indicate the actual figure hovers around 37% despite record sales projected for 2025.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary Pete Hegseth recently announced that the United States is consolidating its absolute leading position in the global arms market with a market share of 43%. However, data analysis from the Central Asia Arms and Trade Conference (CAWAT) offers a more cautious view of the actual scale of these military export transactions.
Ambition to capture a market and order portfolio worth $900 billion.
According to RIA Novosti, in a joint article published in USA Today, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary Pete Hegseth affirmed that US arms sales remain at the highest level, accounting for 43% of the global market share. These officials estimated that the US military-industrial complex currently has over 16,000 orders from 190 partners worldwide.
The value of these transactions is estimated at around $900 billion. However, analysts believe this enormous figure includes all components: from export orders and domestic orders to potential sales and framework agreements that have not yet been formally executed.
Notably, despite possessing a large order portfolio, US customers are facing prolonged delays. The two ministers acknowledged that allies and partners often have to wait years to receive goods because the US military-industrial complex is not yet fully functioning and current production capacity cannot keep up with both domestic and export demand.
Compare actual military export data.
Although the United States is indeed the leading country in arms exports, data from CAWAT suggests that the 43% figure may be an overstatement of the actual volume. According to preliminary reports, 2025 was a record year for US arms exports in terms of value, but its market share was only 37.32%.
The table below summarizes the estimated volume of US military exports for the period 2022-2025:
| Year | Export value (billion USD) | World market share (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 38,402 | 35.50 |
| 2023 | 36,951 | 40,41 |
| 2024 | 34,110 | 35.51 |
| 2025 | 44,603 | 37.32 |
In total over the past four years, the United States has exported $154.066 billion worth of weapons, averaging 37.11% of the global market. The gap between 43% and 37% illustrates the difference between potential estimates and confirmed actual sales.
Motivation from the F-35 fighter jet and military aid.
The US's explosive growth in 2025 is largely due to the accelerated delivery of the F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter. Lockheed Martin reported breaking records by delivering 191 of these aircraft last year. With its high price tag, this fighter jet contributes significantly to overall export revenue.
In addition, another important factor driving sales was the fact that Western countries began making large-scale purchases to replace outdated weapons that had been delivered as aid to Kyiv. These countries primarily chose modern military equipment from the United States to upgrade their arsenals.
Faced with supply chain challenges, the U.S. government is committed to changing its approach to equipment procurement and business interactions. The goal is to attract new capital and build a more resilient supply chain to address the current backlog of orders.
