The world holds its breath waiting for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner

The name of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner will be announced today (October 10), as the world watches US President Donald Trump's months-long campaign to win what is considered the most prestigious award on the planet.

Mr. Trump has publicly expressed his desire to win this award many times, following in the footsteps of his four predecessors: Barack Obama (2009), Jimmy Carter (2002), Woodrow Wilson (1919) and Theodore Roosevelt (1906).

However, when Mr. Joergen Watne Frydnes, Chairman of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, stepped out to announce the decision at 11:00 a.m. (local time), experts believed that the possibility of Donald Trump's name being honored was very low.

Gaza deal may be 'too late'

One of Mr. Trump's recent notable achievements was the announcement on October 8 of a ceasefire and hostage exchange agreement in the first phase of an initiative to end the war in Gaza.

However, according to the Norwegian daily VG, the Nobel Committee had already made its final decision on October 6, before the agreement was announced. Even if the five members of the committee knew about the agreement, they would hardly have rushed to change a decision that had been carefully considered for months.

Experienced Nobel observers say a Trump victory is unlikely, pointing to his perceived efforts to disrupt the international order established after World War II – an order the Nobel Committee has always cherished.

Nina Graeger, Director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, said that Mr. Trump's withdrawal of the US from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, along with trade wars, is against the spirit of Alfred Nobel's will.

"Alfred Nobel's will emphasized three areas: mediation of peace, promotion of disarmament and strengthening of international cooperation," Ms. Graeger analyzed.

Who are other potential candidates?

Instead of a controversial figure, observers say the Committee may honor organizations or individuals with quiet but great contributions, such as: Sudan's Emergency Response Volunteer Network; United Nations agencies such as UNHCR, UNICEF or the International Court of Justice (ICJ); Humanitarian organizations such as the Red Cross or Doctors Without Borders.

Another possibility is that this year’s prize will honor journalists, after a year in which a record number of journalists were killed on the job, most of them in Gaza. In that case, the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) or Reporters Without Borders (RSF) are likely candidates.

Strict approval process

According to the procedure, nominations for the award must be submitted to the Committee by January 31. Committee members can also nominate themselves but must do so before the first meeting in February.

The committee then meets about once a month. The final decision is usually made in August or September, but this year it seems to be later.

"Every politician wants to win the Nobel Peace Prize... We acknowledge the interest from all over the world, but apart from that, we continue to work in our own way as always," Mr Frydnes, head of the Nobel Committee, told Reuters.