Commodity markets showed mixed performance, with silver and coffee moving in opposite directions.
Commodity markets are experiencing mixed movements, with silver prices soaring to new highs, contrasting sharply with coffee prices plummeting. The influx of money into metals is helping silver maintain its upward momentum.
Silver prices become the focus as the metal leads the market.
The trading session on November 12th closed with mixed results in global commodity markets. While industrial raw materials weakened sharply, silver prices surged impressively, reaching a new record high of $53.46 per ounce. This consecutive upward trend has made silver a focal point for investors, drawing capital towards the precious metal amid increasing economic uncertainty.
The MXV-Index fell 0.4% to 2,365 points, mainly due to strong selling pressure at the end of the session. Nevertheless, the upward trend in silver prices shows that the precious metal still holds a more prominent position compared to agricultural and industrial commodities.
Coffee prices plummet as US tariff policies impact the entire market.
Among industrial raw materials, coffee was the biggest loser. Arabica prices fell by more than 4.5% to $8,898 per ton, while Robusta dropped nearly 5.5% to $4,366 per ton. This development plunged the industrial sector into the red.
News from US President Donald Trump about reducing import tariffs on coffee for several countries is putting significant pressure on prices. Previously, he had mentioned the possibility of exempting coffee imports from Vietnam – the world's number one supplier of Robusta coffee – from tariffs. The combined impact of tariff policy and recovering supply is putting strong pressure on coffee prices, a stark contrast to the upward trend in silver prices.
StoneX forecasts Brazil's coffee production for the 2026-2027 season at 70.7 million bags, a 13.5% increase from the previous year, further driving down prices. The strongest growth is expected in Arabica, while Robusta will see a slight decline. However, uncertain weather conditions mean this figure remains subject to significant risks.
In Vietnam, coffee prices remained stable around 118,000–119,000 VND/kg. Harvesting progressed in the Central Highlands, but this was not enough to offset the sharp fluctuations in the global market.
Silver prices surged after the US designated silver as a key mineral.
One of the biggest drivers behind the rise in silver prices is the US designation of silver as a vital mineral. This has led to a continued surge in demand for physical silver in the US – which accounts for 35% of global demand. Simultaneously, the US is also the second-largest consumer of industrial silver, after China.
Approximately 65% of the US's silver needs are met through imports, so the possibility of imposing import tariffs on silver has raised concerns about supply shortages. The direct impact has been a continuous surge in international silver prices over the past few trading sessions.
According to the USGS, demand for silver primarily comes from electronics and physical investments, each accounting for approximately 30% of total consumption. In addition, the solar panel manufacturing industry – which accounts for about 12% of demand – also contributes to the upward trend in silver prices.
Expectations of a Fed interest rate cut continue to support silver prices.
Signals from the US job market are reinforcing expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates for the third time this year. The latest report from ADP shows that private businesses cut an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending October 25 – the sharpest decline since the end of August.
If interest rates fall, the strength of the US dollar could weaken, supporting a stronger rise in silver prices. When the USD weakens, assets priced in USD, especially silver, become more attractive to investors holding other currencies. Low interest rates also facilitate industrial expansion – a factor that boosts demand for silver.
Silver prices are projected to continue reaching new highs, but there are risks regarding demand.
A survey by the London Precious Metals Market Association (LBMA) suggests that silver prices could reach $59 per ounce within the next 12 months. Since the beginning of the year, silver prices have risen 80%, far outpacing gold and platinum.
However, such a sharp increase could also lead the photovoltaic industry to reduce its use of silver to save costs, especially since silver accounts for about 15% of the cost of producing solar panels. This is a factor that could make silver prices unpredictable in the near future.
