China faces three waves of Covid-19 infections

As many Covid-19 prevention measures are lifted, Chinese health experts say the country will face three waves of the epidemic before, during and after the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday.

Chinese medical experts interviewed by China Daily on December 18 said that the number of Covid-19 infections in the country will increase in the coming time, but the epidemic situation is "still under control".

“The proportion of people infected with Covid-19 who became severely ill has decreased year by year, from 16.47% in 2020 to 3.32% in 2021. As of December 5, the proportion of people infected with severe illness was only 0.18%. For the Chinese medical sector, the past three years have been a very difficult time. We have had to “wait” for the virus to become less virulent and less threatening to human health,” said epidemiologist Wu Zunyou of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Chinese medical staff take samples from Beijing residents. Photo: THX

According to Mr. Ngo, with many strict Covid-19 prevention measures being lifted by the central government, China seems to "have to face three 'waves' of infections in the coming time".

“Urban areas will experience the first wave of Covid-19 cases between mid-month and mid-January 2023. The second wave will occur when people from urban areas return to their hometowns for the Lunar New Year. Finally, the third wave will occur when people from many rural areas return to the cities after the Lunar New Year, expected to occur between late February and mid-March next year. In my opinion, 10-30% of China’s population will be infected this winter, and the mortality rate will be between 0.09-0.16%,” Mr. Ngo said.

According to expert Ngo, China needs to step up Covid-19 vaccination for the people, recommend people to wash their hands regularly and wear masks in public places as well as "strengthen protection measures for the elderly, pregnant women and children".

Medical expert Liang Wannian of China's National Health Commission also made a similar assessment about the risk that the "billion-people country" will face many new "waves" of Covid-19 during the Lunar New Year.

“In my opinion, the urgent tasks of the Chinese health sector at present are to step up vaccination for the elderly and those with underlying diseases; increase medical equipment reserves as well as improve hospital treatment capacity. At the same time, health authorities also need to closely monitor the mutation of Covid-19 variants,” said expert Liang.