General Cương analyzes the US presidential election.

(Baonghean) - On November 8, 2016, the United States held its 45th presidential election. While this is an internal affair, as the sole superpower and one that has had and continues to have a particularly significant impact on global development, US presidential elections always attract the attention of the international community.

Key features of the 2016 US Presidential election

The 2016 US presidential election had two unique aspects compared to all previous elections: For the first time in 240 years, the United States had a female presidential candidate – Hillary Clinton – and real estate billionaire Donald Trump, a person with no prior political experience, ran for president.

Of the two notable points mentioned above, billionaire Donald Trump's candidacy for President of the United States created a particularly striking impression that overshadowed the entire 2016 US presidential election, making it strangely difficult to explain. At the beginning of 2015, few Americans thought that Donald Trump would run for president. On June 16, 2015, he delivered his official speech announcing his candidacy for President of the United States.

Candidate Hillary Clinton greets voters at an early voting location in Lauderhill, Florida, USA. November 2, 2016. Photo: REUTERS

For over a year, throughout his election campaign, Trump has consistently made shocking public statements that have stirred up American society and heated up the American political atmosphere, such as: "We have serious problems, we (America) have no victory," "China is killing America," "I will build a wall separating the US from Mexico in the South to stop illegal immigration," or "ban Muslim immigration"...

During his campaign, D. Trump repeatedly and publicly insulted other Republican candidates, called Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton an "evil woman," and disparaged various American communities, including Mexican immigrants, women, and African Americans.

In particular, on October 7, 2016, a video clip of Donald Trump from 11 years prior (in 2005) surfaced on social media, in which he crudely boasted about sexually abusing women and claimed he was given permission to do so because he was a "star."

Following this scandal, many senior members of the Republican Party angrily demanded that Donald Trump withdraw his candidacy. Such events were unprecedented in the 44 US presidential elections over the past 240 years. Donald Trump is a unique presidential candidate in American history, and he has left behind the most scandals not only in American society but also in international public opinion.

The "Donald Trump phenomenon" emerged under the following conditions: Americans in general, and American voters in particular, lost faith in the leadership from the traditional elite, most of whom were high-ranking officials of the Republican and Democratic parties, and of the government apparatus from the state to the federal level.

Americans believe that the traditional elite talk a lot but do little, or even just talk without acting; they are a group of useless officials. As a result, Americans and American voters feel uncomfortable and stifled, demanding change even though they don't know where that change will lead America. In other words, in the presidential election year (2015-2016), American society was in a very serious crisis of confidence.

Furthermore, the internal political crisis within the American Republican Party manifested itself in two major ways: party members distrusted Republican leadership at both the state and federal levels, and internal divisions within the Republican Party; deep-seated conflicts arose within the top leadership of the Republican Party, with factions and divisions at the highest levels regarding policies, assessments of the issues facing America, and the selection of the party's presidential candidate. The "Donald Trump phenomenon" emerged under these two political and social conditions.

Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?

American voters typically favor candidates who possess two fundamental strengths: a clean record for the candidate and their family, ideally one from a prestigious family; and a platform that aligns with the interests of the majority of voters, meaning it addresses pressing social issues.

Mr. Trump at a campaign rally in Warren, Michigan. Photo: REUTERS

However, in the 2016 US presidential election, it could be said that American voters were dissatisfied with both presidential candidates, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. But whether they liked it or not, they still had to choose one of the two candidates to be the 45th President of the United States.

Polls conducted at the end of October 2016 showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by about 7 percentage points. Approximately 20% of American voters had yet to express their support for either candidate. Therefore, a 7 percentage point lead is quite precarious for Hillary Clinton.

Unless something unexpected happens between now and November 8, 2016, Hillary Clinton could become the 45th President of the United States. However, if either of the following two events occurs between now and November 8, 2016: a major terrorist attack shakes the entire country, or the FBI releases significant information about Hillary Clinton's violations of US law, then Donald Trump could potentially become the 45th President. Nevertheless, American society and politics are always full of surprises and unpredictable events…

Associate Professor, Doctor, Major General Le Van Cuong
(Former Director of the Institute of Strategy and Science, Ministry of Public Security)