UOB forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth in 2026 to reach 7%, and the USD/VND exchange rate to hit 26,300.

Growth may slow down in 2026.

According to the latest report from UOB Bank, the Vietnamese economy is projected to grow by approximately 7% in 2026, a slight adjustment after the surge in growth in 2025. This forecast is based on a high comparison to the previous year and a slowdown in export activity following a period of accelerated growth to cope with tariff changes.

In the first nine months of 2025, Vietnam's real GDP grew by 7.85%. UOB forecasts that growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 will slow to 7.2% due to the high base of the same period in 2024 and challenges from trade tensions. Accordingly, full-year growth in 2025 is projected to reach 7.7%. UOB believes the government's growth target of 8.3-8.5% is quite challenging, requiring Q4 GDP growth to be between 9.7-10.5%.

One of the main risks mentioned is the 20% "reciprocal" tariff from the United States, which could put pressure on global trade in 2026 as import costs rise.

Interest rates are expected to remain stable.

Regarding inflation, the report indicates that the consumer price index has not shown significant signs of cooling down. Average inflation for the first 10 months of 2025 reached 3.3%, mainly due to rising costs of housing, construction materials, and healthcare.

With stable economic growth prospects and downward pressure on the VND, UOB expects the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to maintain the refinancing interest rate at 4.50% to keep monetary policy stable.

Forecast of USD/VND exchange rate and gold price

The Vietnamese Dong has depreciated against the US Dollar for the fourth consecutive year; however, the year-to-date decline has been modest at only 3.5% thanks to strong GDP growth and the State Bank of Vietnam's foreign exchange intervention measures. UOB maintains a cautious view on the USD/VND exchange rate for the coming year.

Against the backdrop of a predicted weakening US dollar in global markets due to expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), UOB has released detailed forecasts for the currency and gold markets in 2026.

UOB's forecast for 2026

UOB maintains its positive outlook on gold, revising its price forecast for the precious metal upwards throughout 2026, expecting it to reach $4,600/oz by the end of the year.