Why is Ukraine holding missile drills near the Crimean peninsula?

On December 1-2, Ukraine conducted missile drills in the Black Sea. During the drills, Ukraine test-fired S-300 surface-to-air missiles.

In addition, participating in the exercise are squadrons of fighter aircraft, transport aircraft, air defense missile units, radar and communications forces and drones of the Ukrainian armed forces.

A Ukrainian missile is test-fired during military exercises in the Black Sea, near Crimea. Photo: Mil.gov.ua

If Ukraine sticks to its original missile drill plan, Moscow has warned that it will respond forcefully and shoot down any missiles that threaten Crimean airspace. To confirm that this warning is serious, a day before Ukraine conducts the drills, Russia has deployed warships of the Black Sea Fleet equipped with missile defense systems to the western coast of the peninsula and is in a state of readiness for action. According to the original plan, Ukraine will launch missiles into the airspace of the Crimean peninsula (the peninsula was annexed by the Russian Federation in 2014 - Ed.). However, in response to Russia's "ready to respond" response, Ukraine changed its plan, not launching missiles into the airspace of Crimea and the Black Sea drills will take place at least 30km from the peninsula.

After Ukraine changed its plans by moving the exercise area away from the Crimean peninsula, tensions seemed to have eased and the risk of a military clash between the two countries did not occur. However, Russian experts believe that the Ukrainian government is actually trying to increase tensions with Russia to once again draw Western attention to the Crimean dispute as well as gain support from domestic public opinion.

Ukraine wants to remind the West of its existence

According to Russian political analyst Sergei Mikheyev, a new escalation of tensions in Crimea would be beneficial for Ukraine because it would once again draw international attention. According to Mikheyev, the recent disputes between Ukraine and Russia have been overshadowed by the crisis in Syria. Therefore, Ukraine needs to create an event that will attract public attention to the country.

“The prospect of improved relations between Russia and the West could push Kiev to the edge,” Mikheyev said. Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the US presidential election could undermine the alliance between the West and Ukraine. Therefore, Kiev is trying to “refuel” the conflict with Russia to emphasize its role as a “bulwark” against Russian aggression, Mikheyev analyzed.

According to Mr. Mikheyev, political and financial support from the West is one of the main factors ensuring the continued existence of the current government in Kiev. Losing the West's interest in the current crisis in Ukraine will have serious implications for the Ukrainian government.

Ukraine wants to reiterate that Crimea is Ukrainian territory.

Ukraine said that the above-mentioned exercises were completely in accordance with international law. The missile test was conducted “entirely in Ukrainian airspace”, in other words, Kiev continued to emphasize that: the Crimean peninsula belongs to Ukraine.

Yury Butusov - a Ukrainian military expert and journalist wrote on his Facebook page that: Ukraine showed that it does not recognize the border with the Crimean peninsula and that Ukraine can launch missiles at any area of ​​the Crimean peninsula.

According to expert Sergei Mikheyev, to a certain extent, the recent Ukrainian military exercises were a provocation. Ukraine hoped for a harsh response from Moscow. According to Mr. Mikheyev, the authorities in Kiev are thinking: “Maybe Russia will react harshly, will use force and then we can call Russia a bully.”

Kiev hopes to divert people's attention from internal problems

It is worth noting that Ukrainian society is currently dissatisfied with the situation in the country. According to a poll conducted by Ukrainian Rating in November, 46% of Ukrainians believe that President Petro Poroshenko should resign. Poroshenko himself recently admitted that Ukraine has not been well-governed in the past three years to “improve people’s lives and bring it closer to European standards.”

Vadim Karasyov, a political analyst and director of the Kiev-based Institute for Global Strategic Studies, said another goal of Ukraine's efforts to escalate tensions with Russia is to divert domestic public attention from the problems it is facing.

“Kiev’s latest moves are aimed at uniting society against the external threat and quelling protests,” Karasyov said in an interview with Russia’s Kommersant daily.

Commenting on the missile tests during Ukraine's military exercises, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova expressed a similar view: "Kiev needs to escalate the situation to 'steer' people's attention away from the increasingly serious political, economic and social crisis in the country"./.

According to VOV.VN