Why is Ukraine conducting missile exercises near the Crimean Peninsula?

Over the past two days, December 1-2, Ukraine conducted missile exercises in the Black Sea. During these exercises, Ukraine test-fired S-300 surface-to-air missiles.

In addition, the exercise also involved squadrons of fighter jets, transport aircraft, anti-aircraft missile units, radar and communications forces, and drones of the Ukrainian armed forces.

Ukrainian missiles are test-fired during military exercises in the Black Sea, near Crimea. Photo: Mil.gov.ua

If Ukraine proceeds with its missile exercises as originally planned, Moscow warns it will respond forcefully and shoot down any missiles threatening Crimean airspace. To confirm this warning, a day before Ukraine began its exercises, Russia deployed Black Sea Fleet warships equipped with missile defense systems to the western coast of the peninsula and placed them on high alert. The original plan was for Ukraine to fire missiles into the airspace of the Crimean Peninsula (annexed by the Russian Federation in 2014). However, in response to Russia's "readiness to retaliate," Ukraine changed its plans, refraining from firing missiles into Crimean airspace, and the Black Sea exercises took place at least 30km away from the peninsula.

After Ukraine changed its plans by moving the military exercises away from the Crimean Peninsula, tensions seemed to have eased and the risk of a military clash between the two countries averted. However, Russian experts believe that the Ukrainian authorities are actually trying to escalate tensions with Russia to once again draw Western attention to the Crimean dispute and garner domestic public support.

Ukraine wants to remind the West of its existence.

According to Russian political analyst Sergei Mikheyev, a new escalation of tensions on the Crimean Peninsula would benefit Ukraine because it would once again draw international attention. Mikheyev argues that recent disputes between Ukraine and Russia have been overshadowed by the Syrian crisis. Therefore, Ukraine needs to create an event to draw public attention to its situation.

“The prospect of improving relations between Russia and the West could push Kyiv to the sidelines,” Mikheyev said. Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the recent US presidential election could destroy the alliance between the West and Ukraine. Therefore, Kyiv is trying to “re-energize” the conflict with Russia to emphasize its role as a “bulwark” against Russian aggression, Mikheyev analyzed.

According to Mikheyev, political and financial support from the West is one of the main factors ensuring the continued existence of the current government in Kyiv. The loss of Western interest in the current crisis in Ukraine would have serious consequences for the Ukrainian government.

Ukraine wants to reiterate that Crimea is Ukrainian territory.

The Ukrainian side maintains that the aforementioned military exercises are entirely in accordance with international law. The missile tests were conducted "entirely within Ukrainian airspace," in other words, Kyiv continues to emphasize that the Crimean Peninsula belongs to Ukraine.

Yury Butusov, a Ukrainian military expert and journalist, wrote on his Facebook page that Ukraine has shown it does not recognize the border with the Crimean Peninsula and that it can launch missiles at any area of ​​the Crimean Peninsula.

According to expert Sergei Mikheyev, to a certain extent, Ukraine's recent military exercises were a provocation. Ukraine hopes Moscow will respond strongly. According to Mikheyev, authorities in Kyiv are thinking along these lines: "Perhaps Russia will react strongly, will use force, and then we can call Russia a bully."

Kyiv hopes to divert people's attention from internal problems.

Notably, Ukrainian society is currently dissatisfied with the domestic situation. According to a poll conducted by Ukrainian Rating last November, 46% of Ukrainians believe that President Petro Poroshenko should resign. Poroshenko himself recently admitted that Ukraine has not been well-governed in the past three years in order to "improve the lives of its citizens and move closer to European standards."

Vadim Karasyov, a political analyst and director of the Kyiv-based Institute for Global Strategic Studies, argues that another objective of Ukraine's attempts to escalate tensions with Russia is to divert domestic public attention from the problems it faces.

"Kyiv's latest moves are aimed at uniting society against the external threat and suppressing protests," Karasyov said in an interview with the Russian daily Kommersant.

Commenting on the missile tests during Ukraine's military exercises, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova expressed a similar view: "Kyiv needs to escalate tensions to 'steer' people's attention away from the increasingly serious political, economic, and social crisis in the country."

According to VOV.VN