Vietnam could go to penalties against Malaysia if they win 4-0.
Malaysia has 15 points, Vietnam 12. If Vietnam wins 4-0 in the final match in March 2026, both teams, based on all other criteria and according to AFC regulations, will compete for a penalty shootout to determine who advances.
A rare scenario in continental qualifiers: if the Vietnamese national team defeats Malaysia by the exact same score of 4-0 in the final match in March 2026, the two teams will be tied in all aspects, and according to AFC regulations for the 2027 Asian Cup qualifiers, the match will have to be decided by a penalty shootout immediately after the final whistle.
Group F standings after matchday 5: a 3-point gap.
After the fifth round of matches in the 2027 Asian Cup qualifiers, Malaysia leads Group F with 15 points, while Vietnam is second with 12 points. Both teams won their matches in this round; a 2-0 victory against Laos helped Vietnam maintain their second place position and continue to chase the title.
| Team | Score after round 5 |
|---|---|
| Malaysia | 15 |
| Vietnam | 12 |
Why is there a penalty shootout scenario?
To advance, the Vietnamese team must win against Malaysia by a minimum of 4 goals to overcome the 0-4 defeat in the first leg. If the second leg score is 4-0, the two teams will be tied in all aspects: number of goals scored, number of goals conceded, goal difference, and head-to-head record (both 4-0).
Normally, when all professional indicators are equal, the fair-play indicator is considered next. However, according to AFC regulations for the 2027 Asian Cup qualifiers, if two teams are tied on all goal differences and meet in the final match, a penalty shootout will be held to determine which team advances.
Disciplinary variable: the possibility of Malaysia being handed a forfeit loss and the timeline.
The penalty shootout scenario is only considered if Malaysia has not already forfeited their two matches against Nepal and Vietnam in the 2027 Asian Cup qualifiers. Currently, despite evidence presented by FIFA, Malaysia remains determined to appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS). Only after receiving full conclusions from FIFA and CAS will the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) make a final decision.
If Malaysia is handed a loss, they will have 6 points deducted (from 15 to 9), while Vietnam will gain 3 points (from 12 to 15) and move to the top of Group F. With a 6-point lead, Vietnam will officially qualify for the 2027 Asian Cup finals, regardless of the result of the return match against Malaysia in March 2026. According to the AFC announcement, the deadline for making a decision on the possibility of a forfeit loss against Malaysia is March 31, 2026.
| Script | Malaysia | Vietnam |
|---|---|---|
| Current point | 15 | 12 |
| If Malaysia loses the game. | 9 | 15 |
Key points before the final round
- Technical requirement: Vietnam needs to beat Malaysia by a margin of 4 goals or more to have their own chance of advancing to the next round.
- In the case of a 4-0 score: all indicators are balanced; according to AFC regulations for the 2027 Asian Cup qualifiers, the two teams will go to a penalty shootout to determine who advances.
- Disciplinary variable: if Malaysia is handed a forfeit in the two aforementioned matches, Vietnam will gain 15 points and qualify directly for the 2027 Asian Cup Finals; Malaysia will have 9 points.
- Timeline: The deadline for disciplinary decisions related to Malaysia is March 31, 2026.
With a match potentially decided by a penalty shootout, the outcome of Group F will depend not only on the pitch but also on disciplinary decisions. Vietnam has the power to save itself with a sufficiently large victory, while the entire scenario will become clearest after the deadline set by the AFC.
