Vietnam and Malaysia could go to a penalty shootout to decide the top spot.
Malaysia leads Group F with 15 points, Vietnam with 12. If both teams win 4-0 in the final match, the two teams will be tied on goal difference and will have to go to a penalty shootout; the AFC ruling could still reverse the race.
A rare scenario awaits the Vietnam vs. Malaysia match: if Vietnam wins exactly 4-0 in the final match of the 2027 Asian Cup qualifiers, the two teams will be tied on all goal differences and will have to go to a penalty shootout on the field to determine the top team in Group F. However, if Vietnam wins by a margin of 5 goals or more, they will take the top spot in the group without needing a penalty shootout.
A penalty shootout only occurs when all other scores are tied.
According to the qualifying rules, a penalty shootout is only used when two teams meet in the final match and are tied in all ranking criteria. This situation is very rare, as qualifying tournaments usually have multiple layers of criteria to determine the winner. The Vietnam - Malaysia match on March 31, 2026, could therefore become a memorable exception, if Vietnam manages to equalize the score at 4-0 from the first leg.
The picture of Group F before the decisive round.
Malaysia is leading, with Vietnam close behind. The gap in points and goal difference presents a clear challenge for coach Kim Sang-sik's team in the final match.
| Team | Point | Difference | Goal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malaysia | 15 | +14 | 15 |
| Vietnam | 12 | +6 | 11 |
If Vietnam wins 4-0, the two teams will be tied on points, head-to-head record, goal difference, and number of goals scored. In that case, as it's the final match of the group, a penalty shootout will be used to determine the top spot in Group F. However, if Vietnam wins by a margin of 5 goals, they will move to the top of the group and qualify for the 2027 Asian Cup finals.
Effective score range and pressure
Vietnam's tactical focus lies in the scoreline: 4-0 to force a penalty shootout, or 5 goals to secure first place. These are the minimum and optimal goals based on current statistics. However, this presents a significant challenge because Malaysia, even without naturalized players, still demonstrates strength with their emphatic victory over Laos and recent win against Nepal.
Off-field factors: AFC ruling pending
Vietnam's hopes are also tied to the legal developments related to the naturalization irregularities of the Malaysian national team. According to sources, the scandal involving seven naturalized players has resulted in the Football Association of Malaysia being heavily penalized by FIFA, and the group of players being banned from competing for one year starting September 26, 2025. Malaysia is currently awaiting the final ruling.
If the appeal is rejected by the Court of Arbitration for Sport, Malaysia could face a 0-3 forfeit loss in matches where they used ineligible players, including their 2-0 win against Nepal and their 4-0 win against Vietnam. In that case, Malaysia would only have 9 points, while Vietnam would move to the top of the table with 15 points and would be guaranteed qualification regardless of the result of their final match.
Mindset before the big moment
Vietnam's morale was boosted by their 2-0 victory over Laos, thus maintaining their hopes of catching up. Conversely, Malaysia admitted to facing immense psychological pressure. Striker Faisal Halim shared that the entire team had considered the possibility of elimination or losing points due to a penalty, but their goal remained to fight to the end.
The final match was full of dramatic twists and turns.
Group F is currently one of the most unpredictable groups in the 2027 Asian Cup qualifiers. From the possibility of a penalty shootout to the risk of changes in rankings due to disciplinary decisions, the door remains wide open for Vietnam. The final 90 minutes could end in a tense penalty shootout – or be decided early on paper, depending on the ruling Malaysia is awaiting.
