Global electric vehicle market sets record, putting pressure on Toyota.
IEA: EV sales exceeded 17 million and increased 35% in the first quarter. China could reach 60% of the domestic market share, Europe 25% this year. Japan saw a 33% decline; Greenpeace is pressuring Toyota.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global electric vehicle (EV) sales exceeded 17 million units last year, accounting for more than 20% of the market share. China sold 11 million units, nearly half of the total, and one in ten vehicles on the road in China is an EV. This year, global EV sales are expected to exceed 20 million units, representing more than a quarter of the market share; the first quarter alone saw a 35% increase year-on-year. With continued incentives and falling prices, EVs could reach approximately 60% of the Chinese domestic market share this year, and around 25% in Europe. With current policies, the IEA estimates that the global EV market share will exceed 40% by 2030, with China accounting for around 80% and Europe around 60%. Conversely, Japan saw EV sales decline by 33% to 59,736 units, less than 2% of total new vehicle sales. At the same time, Greenpeace Japan released a report putting pressure on Toyota's BEV strategy.
Global EV sales accelerate: reaching 17 million and outlook for this year.
The IEA notes that the EV market continues to expand, with a 35% increase in the first quarter of this year compared to the same period last year. This growth is supported by incentive policies in many countries and reduced production costs, which in turn drive down prices. China remains the main driver of the market, consuming 11 million units last year; the adoption rate is so high that on average, one in ten vehicles on the road is an EV.
Short-term prospects suggest global EV sales this year could exceed 20 million units, accounting for more than 25% of the market share. The IEA also provides a forecast framework for 2030: EVs could potentially surpass 40% of the global market share if current policies are maintained; China could reach around 80% and Europe around 60%.
| The International Economic Expertise Index (IEA) | Data |
|---|---|
| Global EV sales last year | Over 17,000,000 (over 20% market share) |
| China's EV sales last year | 11,000,000 (almost half of the total market) |
| EV growth in the first quarter of this year. | +35% compared to the same period |
| Global EV forecast for this year | Over 20,000,000 (more than 1/4 of the market share) |
| Forecast of China's EV market share (this year) | Approximately 60% domestically |
| European EV market share forecast (this year) | Approximately 25% |
| Global EV market share forecast (2030) | Over 40% |
| Forecast of China's EV market share (2030) | Approximately 80% |
| European EV market share forecast (2030) | Approximately 60% |
Japan falters: EV sales drop 33%, market share below 2%.
Last year, Japan sold 59,736 EVs, a 33% decrease from the previous year and accounting for less than 2% of total new car sales. The domestic market still favors hybrid vehicles (HVs), while the high price and limited new EV models contribute to lingering reservations. The lack of home charging infrastructure is also a significant barrier due to the characteristics of apartment living; coupled with concerns about future electricity prices in a context where most journeys are short and medium-distance, HVs continue to hold an advantage.
Nevertheless, EV imports in Japan increased by 5.7%, reaching 24,198 units and setting a record. BYD sold 2,223 units (a 54% increase), surpassing Toyota's EV sales in this market for the first time.
Pressure on Toyota increases following a report by Greenpeace Japan.
On October 27, Greenpeace Japan released a report titled “Toyota at a Crossroads – The World’s Largest Automaker’s BEV Strategy and its Alignment with the 1.5°C Target.” The report argues that there is a significant gap between Toyota’s current BEV plans and the emissions reductions needed to keep global average temperature increase at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and calls for setting targets to reduce total emissions and phasing out internal combustion engine vehicles.
According to the report, 98.9% of the total 436.28 million tons of CO2 equivalent from Toyota vehicles sold in 2023 came from internal combustion engine (ECU) vehicles and high-performance vehicles (HVs). On average, ECUs emitted 45.99 tons, more than three times higher than BEVs (13.06 tons). HVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) emitted 30.79 tons and 23.66 tons, respectively. The report also noted that in Thailand, the proportion of internal combustion engine vehicle sales remains high, driving emissions more than four times higher than in Norway.
BEV plan and estimated emissions consequences by Greenpeace
According to Greenpeace, Toyota's adjustment of its 2026 BEV sales plan from 1.5 million to 800,000 units misses the opportunity to cut 11.7–22.6 million tonnes of emissions, equivalent to the annual emissions of approximately 4.5–8.7 million average households in Japan. Toyota announced a target of producing 3.5 million BEVs by 2030; however, this figure is reportedly still 8.2% higher than the Science-Based Target Initiative (SBTi) standard and about twice the emissions benchmark based on Greenpeace's carbon budget. The report concludes that Toyota's BEV plan is not in line with the decarbonization pace of the Paris Agreement.
Mariko Shiohata, head of climate change and energy at Greenpeace Japan, commented: “As automakers face increasing demands for sustainable practices, Toyota should accelerate its climate change mitigation efforts to maintain competitiveness in a warming world.”
Summary
IEA data shows that EVs are entering an acceleration phase, with China leading the way and Europe maintaining its momentum. Japan is contrasting, reflecting differences in infrastructure, costs, and consumer preferences. In this context, Greenpeace Japan's assessments highlight the pressure on Toyota's BEV strategy as the automotive industry moves closer to low-emission targets.
