German exports increased by 4.0% in December 2025, resulting in a trade surplus of 17.1 billion euros.
Germany's exports surged beyond expectations thanks to demand from the US and China, but a decline in industrial production leaves the prospect of recovery uncertain.
Official figures released on February 6th showed that German exports in December 2025 grew more strongly than expected. This result was achieved thanks to a significant increase in shipments to the US and China, which played a crucial role in boosting Europe's largest economy.
Export growth exceeded forecasts.
Specifically, Germany's exports in December 2025 recorded a 4.0% increase compared to the previous month. This figure far exceeded the 1.0% increase forecast by economists in a Reuters survey. Total imports also increased by 1.4% compared to November 2025.
Due to slower import growth compared to export growth, Germany's trade surplus widened to €17.1 billion, up from €13.6 billion the previous month. This is a positive sign indicating the country's ability to maintain its trade position amidst volatile global markets.
Segmenting key markets
The US and Chinese markets saw contrasting movements but overall contributed positively to the December growth momentum. Below are the details of the fluctuations in each region:
| Market | Change compared to the previous month | Important note |
|---|---|---|
| China | +10.7% | Imports from China increased by 4.1%. |
| America | +8.9% | Compared to December 2024, there was a decrease of 12.9% due to the 15% tax. |
| European Union (EU) | +3.1% | Intra-regional trade plays a supporting role. |
| Outside the EU | +5.0% | The global market maintains high demand. |
Volker Treier, Head of Global Trade at the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK), believes that trade in 2025 will be partly supported by demand from within the European Union. However, he stressed that Germany and Europe need economic policies focused on enhancing long-term competitiveness.
Challenges arising from a decline in industrial production.
In stark contrast to the bright export picture, German industrial production in December 2025 fell sharply by 1.9%. This was a much deeper decline than analysts' forecasts of a negative 0.3%. This contrast highlights a disconnect between export orders and actual production capacity.
Franziska Palmas, chief European economist at Capital Economics, said the decline has dimmed hopes for a rapid industrial recovery. While industrial orders had previously seen their strongest increase in two years (primarily driven by volatile large orders), actual production has yet to catch up.
Sharing this view, Ralph Solveen, chief economist at Commerzbank, believes that the industrial sector is unlikely to contribute significantly to Germany's GDP growth in the early part of this year. The recovery of the eurozone's largest economy is still facing many uncertainties, both domestically and internationally.
