Seafood exports to the Middle East face the risk of a $4,000 increase in transportation costs.
Military tensions in the Middle East have extended delivery times by 20 days and driven up logistics costs, putting pressure on the profit margins of seafood businesses.
Military conflicts in the Middle East since the end of February 2026 are putting direct pressure on Vietnam's seafood industry, particularly with increased refrigerated container shipping costs ranging from $2,000 to $4,000 per container. Shipping companies are having to adjust their routes to bypass Africa instead of the Suez Canal, extending delivery times by 7 to 20 days and disrupting the supply chain to this market, which has a trade value exceeding $401 million.
Logistics pressure and refrigerated container shipping costs are soaring.
According to export businesses, the most noticeable impact currently is not from market demand but primarily from the disruption and volatility of the global logistics system. The Middle East, with strategic bottlenecks such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal, plays a vital role in the flow of international goods. As conflict escalates, shipping companies are forced to choose longer routes, leading to increased fuel costs and surcharges related to war risks.
Specifically, the shipping cost per refrigerated container has increased by $2,000–$4,000. Not only sea freight, but domestic shipping costs are also affected by the rising price of diesel fuel. Delays in delivery schedules (from 10 to 20 days depending on the route) are particularly challenging for frozen seafood, which requires strict preservation procedures and high warehousing costs.
The impact varies across different product groups.
The Vietnam Association of Seafood Processing and Export (VASEP) assesses that the impact of geopolitical situations varies significantly across key seafood products:
- Pangasius fish:This is the largest export item to the Middle East, with a value reaching nearly $176 million in 2025. Disruptions to transportation are slowing consumption in a market that was experiencing strong growth.
- Tuna:Exports are projected to reach $94.4 million in 2025. This product is facing a double impact from rising fuel prices and logistics costs. However, demand for canned tuna may increase due to the trend of stockpiling food in uncertain conditions.
- Shrimp industry:Rising transportation costs are eroding businesses' profit margins. VASEP is concerned that if the conflict continues, the market could repeat the scenario of soaring freight rates as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Below is a table showing the growth in seafood export value to the Middle East region over different periods:
| Item | Trade turnover in 2020 (Million USD) | Trade turnover in 2025 (Million USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Pangasius fish | 79 | 176 |
| Tuna | But | 94.4 |
| Shrimp | But | 54 |
| Total industry | 197.7 | 401.1 |
Recommendations for export businesses
Although food demand in the Middle East remains stable and no orders have been canceled, the biggest challenge now is organizing transportation and controlling costs. Some businesses have had to flexibly shift their receiving ports to neighboring countries to continue transporting goods by road in order to maintain the flow of goods.
VASEP recommends that businesses closely monitor geopolitical developments and fluctuations in diesel prices. Proactive communication with import partners and shipping lines to adjust delivery plans is key to minimizing risks. In the context of highly volatile international logistics costs, diversifying transportation options will help businesses maintain competitiveness in the global market.
