Iran conflict: An unexpected 'impact' reshapes the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical landscape.
The rapidly escalating conflict in Iran is not limited to the Middle Eastern border but is also creating powerful ripple effects, shaking global energy markets and directly reshaping the economic landscape of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
The conflict escalated after the US-Israel airstrike that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sparking Iranian retaliation against Israel and across the Gulf, and drawing in Hezbollah from Lebanon.
In Ukraine, after four years of conflict with Russia, the repercussions of the Iran conflict are beginning to take effect. Disruptions to oil and gas supplies in the Middle East and soaring energy prices have strengthened Russia's oil export capabilities.
Peace negotiation efforts have gone off track.
In an effort to secure a diplomatic victory as a mediator, U.S. President Donald Trump actively pushed Russia and Ukraine toward an agreement to end Europe's deadliest war since World War II. However, the flames of war in Iran appear to have derailed the latest round of negotiations.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said this week that the third round of trilateral talks with US and Russian officials is scheduled to take place on Thursday and Friday (March 5-6) in Abu Dhabi. However, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is among the Gulf states hit by Iranian attacks.
A source close to the Ukrainian negotiators told AFP on March 4 that there was still no specific date for the next round of talks. Zelensky said he was open to alternative locations such as Türkiye or Switzerland – places that had hosted previous meetings.
The big question is how much diplomatic resources Ukraine's allies can devote to deterring Russia while the fight with Iran is the urgent priority? Many of the American diplomats involved in the Ukraine negotiations are the same ones who led the negotiations with Iran that broke down last month.
"The war in Iran will not end negotiations on Ukraine, although for the Americans, Iran will certainly be a top priority in the near future," said Volodymyr Fesenko, a Ukrainian political analyst. However, he also emphasized that: "The scale and consequences of the Ukrainian war are too great to be forgotten."
The UAV war and the air defense challenge.
President Zelensky acknowledged that a prolonged war in Iran could affect the delivery of ammunition for the air defense systems that the West is supplying to Ukraine to protect critical infrastructure.
Notably, Kyiv stated that, based on practical battlefield experience, Ukraine has successfully developed a series of inexpensive and effective UAV interceptors, considered among the best in the world. Therefore, on March 3rd, President Zelensky made a bold "exchange" proposal to US allies in the Middle East: Ukraine would supply UAV interceptors in exchange for air defense missiles (such as PAC-3) to better protect the Gulf region against Iranian attacks.
However, analysts suggest there are few indications that the Iranian conflict will directly impact the situation on the front lines stretching across Ukraine.
In an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, President Zelensky stated that Ukraine might have difficulty acquiring the missiles and weapons that the US itself needs for its campaign against Iran. He also supported US and Israeli attacks on Iran, calling them "the right decision."
According to Zelensky, Ukraine had faced delays in aid deliveries in 2025 due to the 12-day war between Israel and Iran. However, he affirmed that planned deliveries were not reduced and aid from partners was proceeding on schedule.
There are currently no official reports indicating that the US or European countries may reconsider military aid programs to Ukraine due to the Iran crisis. US President Donald Trump has stated that the military campaign against Tehran could last longer than the initial estimate of four to five weeks.
The Ukrainian newspaper Strana reported on the potential risks to Ukraine due to events related to Iran. The article stated: "Ukraine could completely lose its supply of missiles for its air defense system." Accordingly, Zelensky expressed concern about increasing pressure from the US in negotiations with Russia, which is why he declared his support for military action against Iran. "Pressure could increase at any time... That is why the Ukrainian authorities welcome the start of a war with Iran," the article emphasized.
Increase Russia's oil exports.
Since the start of the conflict, Ukraine has relentlessly escalated long-range attacks on Russian oil and gas facilities to cripple its revenue streams. Western sanctions have also directly targeted Moscow's energy export capabilities.
According to AFP, events in Iran, particularly the drone attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, have caused market panic, driving up oil prices and creating opportunities for Moscow to reap greater profits. Providing evidence, AFP reports that the price of Russian export oil has risen from below $40 per barrel (in December) to around $62 per barrel currently.
This increase stems from fears of war and disruptions to oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – a vital artery for transporting 20% of global oil consumption. Furthermore, Qatar's temporary suspension of seaborne liquefied natural gas (LNG) production will intensify competition for available shipments – including those from Russia.
