10 'offspring' wars of the war against ISIS

With the territory of the terrorist organization IS rapidly shrinking, the world faces 10 war scenarios arising from the fight against IS.

The U.S. strategy to defeat the self-proclaimed "Islamic State" (IS) relies on regional allies and local armed groups that frequently clash with each other. While all consider IS an enemy, most are hostile to one another.

After entering terrorist territory, they attempt to seize those lands, creating the risk of conflict with other fighters. New wars are emerging to争夺 control in the post-ISIS era.

Fighters of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) fire "Grad" rockets at government forces in Hama province. Photo: Reuters.

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This is one of the wars that has begun, and also one of the most complex. Turkey, which is waging war against Kurdish separatists, has expressed concern that the Syrian Kurds are using US support to expand their control over northeastern Syria. Syrian Arab rebels, allies of Turkey, are also resisting this Kurdish expansion into Arab territory.

Therefore, when Türkiye recently sent troops into Syria to support rebel forces in seizing territory controlled by ISIS, it became clear that the Kurds also became targets, just like ISIS. Since then, the conflict has intensified, and although the United States has urged both sides to halt hostilities, it remains unclear whether they have the power to influence their allies to prevent further escalation.

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This conflict is similar to the first, but on a larger scale. Türkiye has now limited its troop deployments in Syria to areas occupied by ISIS, which are predominantly Arab. However, Türkiye is also uneasy about the formation of a Kurdish state along its eastern border.

The Kurds declared an autonomous region here earlier this year, and Türkiye is currently building a wall along the border to blockade that autonomous region. If tensions continue, it cannot be ruled out that Turkey will directly invade the Kurdish area, where a small number of US troops are stationed.

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The Syrian government also perceives a threat from the Kurds due to their territorial ambitions. Not long ago, they supported a complex alliance, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad boasted that, in many instances, his government had supplied weapons to the Kurds. But relations deteriorated after the Kurds declared autonomy, with both sides engaging in brief skirmishes in areas where their forces are stationed. A ceasefire remains in effect there, but the Kurds' efforts for autonomy conflict with Assad's stated goal of restoring Syrian sovereignty throughout the country.

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This war could have broken out at any time over the past five years, ever since U.S. President Barack Obama called for the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. However, this has not happened, possibly because both sides want to avoid conflict. To date, this war remains considered unlikely. But there are still some lines where the fight with ISIS could at some point lead to direct conflict between U.S.-backed rebel groups and Syrian government forces.

Among them is the IS capital in Raqqa (Syria), where in June the United States and Syria supported attacks from opposing directions. In August, the US military used aircraft to obstruct Syrian military planes from bombing Kurds.

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Currently, Türkiye's military intervention in Syria is hampered by its ongoing fight against ISIS and Kurdish forces. Türkiye has also taken steps to improve relations with Russia and Iran – Assad's most important allies (these countries appear to have given Turkey the green light to intervene in northern Syria). However, if Turkey's fight against ISIS goes smoothly, Turkish soldiers will quickly face Syrian government forces near Aleppo. The situation could then become critical.

The 6th War:Between the Kurds in Iraq and the Iraqi Government

Along IS's shrinking border to Syria's eastern flank in Iraqi territory, the situation is slightly less unstable, but no less complex and dangerous. Syrian Kurds have expanded their control by means that threaten the sovereignty of the Syrian government, while Iraqi Kurds have moved into areas of Iraq that were once under Iraqi government control.

The U.S.-backed Iraqi government has declared its intention to reclaim these territories after ISIS is completely defeated. Meanwhile, the U.S.-backed Kurdish forces have stated they will not relinquish a single piece of land they fought so hard to gain. These disputes existed until the emergence of ISIS, and they are expected to resurface and multiply after the terrorist group is defeated.

Iraqi troops are fighting ISIS with the support of the US air force in Akbar province. Photo:

The 7th War:Between the Kurds in Iraq and the Shiite militias.

This conflict may have been triggered by many of the same reasons as World War II, but it has a unique character: it has begun. Shiite fighters (many of whom are supported by Iran) are playing a role in several campaigns to seize ISIS territory. They are advancing north of Baghdad to drive out the terrorists. They are also fighting against US allies, including Kurdish Peshmerga resistance fighters advancing south from Kurdish territory. At least one area, Tuz Khurmatu, has seen clashes. However, the Kurds themselves are not united in either Syria or Iraq, so another war remains possible.

The 8th War:Between Kurds and Kurds

This is perhaps the most complex scenario of all, and it is entirely possible. The Kurds are divided on everything except the effort to establish a Kurdish state. The Kurds in Iraq are split into two groups that fought a bloody civil war in the 1990s. One of these groups is the Kurds' sworn enemy, currently controlling northern Syria. The other is an ally of the Kurds in Syria. A conflict between these Kurdish groups (both allies of the U.S.) is possible either in Iraq, or in Syria, or in both countries.

The 9th War:Sunni Arabs versus Shiites or Kurds

While fighting against IS, cities and villages with a Sunni majority were captured by Kurdish or Shiite forces. Many Sunnis rallied with them to help defeat the fighters. There was a sense of security in driving out the oppressors.

However, there are still reports that Shiites and Kurds are exploiting the Sunni communities they have liberated. For example, using violence to drive Sunnis from their homes and arresting large numbers of Sunni men. Because there is no genuine reconciliation, nor any political policies to empower Sunnis, a new Sunni insurgency could emerge.

The 10th War:The remnants of the IS organization are fighting against everyone.

ISIS still controls large swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq. Offensives to seize control of their capitals, Mosul and Raqqa, are currently being planned. If the attacking groups engage in combat with each other, these battles could drag on indefinitely.

Even if that weren't the case, other conflicts would remain unresolved. This is the cause of prolonged instability in the region. Victory in warfare cannot be determined through political means. This is precisely what previously led to chaos and problems, primarily fueling the growth of ISIS. If the current war sparks new wars, ISIS will continue to survive.

According to VOV