3 big questions as US-North Korea summit is canceled in Trump's hands

People watch news about US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at Seoul Railway Station, South Korea on May 24. North Korea destroyed its nuclear test site on Thursday, with a series of explosions over several hours in front of foreign reporters. Photo: AP

It must be reaffirmed that Mr. Trump's sudden decision was both surprising and predictable.

The reason why the withdrawal from the meeting was so surprising was because it seemed that Mr. Trump had invested quite a lot in this event, right from the moment he staged the dramatic announcement of the meeting by South Korean officials visiting the White House. Indeed, the US President often said that the meeting could be a failure. But he also showed it by “praising” it as a major event that his predecessors could not do. Most recently, on May 10, when announcing that the meeting would be held in Singapore, Trump posted on Twitter: “We will work together to make it a very special moment for World Peace!”

But the summit’s eventual collapse was predictable, given how quickly things moved. High-level meetings between world leaders are highly choreographed events, with agendas and logistics worked out in advance. In this case, Trump rushed to accept North Korea’s request for a meeting, and then agreed to a “face-to-face” summit within weeks. As it became clear that Pyongyang and the White House had vastly different understandings of what “denuclearization” of North Korea meant, the prospects for the meeting faded.

North Korean state media said on May 25 that the demolition of the country's only known nuclear test site demonstrated its "peace-loving" efforts and pursuit of a "complete cessation" of nuclear tests. Photo: CNN

As a result, public attention is now focused on a few important questions:

Will either side make any concessions?

There is a view that neither side has made any concessions, since negotiations have yet to take place—so the US and North Korea are still “marking time” in their often-fraught relationship. If anything, the North Koreans have made some concessions here. After all, they did release three American prisoners as a sweetener.

“It was a beautiful gesture and greatly appreciated,” Trump wrote in a letter to Kim canceling the June 12 summit.

Another way to look at it is that Kim got what he wanted. By agreeing to this one-on-one meeting, Trump treated him as an equal on the world stage. Kim’s nuclear arsenal—a “treasured sword,” as North Korea puts it—forced the United States to the negotiating table. He met with South Korean President Moon Jae-in in an emotional summit that seemed like a reunion. He traveled to China to consult with officials from North Korea’s most powerful friend. The very prospect of a summit with the United States seemed to ease North Korea’s isolation. Will that now be reversed?

Mr Trump's letter to leader Kim Jong-un, emphasizing that now is "inappropriate" time to hold the long-planned summit, has sparked concerns from many countries, especially from South Korea. Photo: Twitter

How does the cancellation of the summit affect US relations with other countries?

If the Trump-Kim summit had a midwife, it was South Korea. President Moon was elected as a peace candidate and has worked tirelessly to bring the two sides together. The handshake and crossing the border with Kim was an emotional one in Moon’s homeland. For him, the cancellation of the June 12 summit was certainly a difficult development.

North Korea could now use the situation to try to drive a wedge between South Korea and the United States. That has been a long-standing strategic goal for Pyongyang. After all, South Korea cannot enthusiastically support Trump’s move. At the same time, Trump can blame South Korea for exaggerating the chances that North Korea might actually put its nuclear technology on the negotiating table.

Then there is China. Trump has reined in his confrontational trade policy toward China, in part to try to persuade his Chinese counterparts to push North Korea toward disarmament talks. If that doesn’t happen, will US tariffs on China be next?

What happens next?

South Korea's Foreign Ministry said on May 25 that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo affirmed that Washington remains committed to dialogue with North Korea, despite President Donald Trump's decision to cancel summit talks with Pyongyang's leader next month. Photo: Yonhap

Trump’s letter to Kim asserted that the meeting was canceled because of “tremendous anger and open hostility” from North Korea’s recent statements about US Vice President Mike Pence and the prospects for denuclearization. At the same time, the letter seemed vague about what might happen. “If you change your mind regarding this most important summit, please do not hesitate to call or write,” Trump wrote.

Perhaps Kim will tone down the North Korean rhetoric, and a rescheduled meeting will follow later this year. But if it does, the core issue here has been made clear. The Trump administration continues to talk about denuclearization as something that must be comprehensive, and done quickly. North Korea rejects that approach. Meanwhile, Trump has returned to thinly veiled threats.

Our military is “ready if needed,” he said in a statement from the White House on May 24. “Hopefully positive things will unfold with respect to the future of North Korea — but if they don’t, we are more ready than ever.”