4 scenarios for the US government to reopen.

According to CNN, typically, in crises like this, things seem deadlocked until one side unexpectedly makes a concession and everything is resolved. However, this situation is unusual: Intertwined political factors and interests suggest that this budget crisis could last longer than previous ones.

Against this backdrop, CNN presents four scenarios that could soon lead to the end of the US government shutdown.

Scenario 1:The Democratic Party making concessions – this is probably the most likely scenario.

CNN explains this by stating: Firstly, history shows that government shutdowns almost always end this way: the party making the demands usually doesn't get what they want, because the American people generally don't support using budget crises as a political bargaining tool.

Secondly, cracks have begun to appear on the Democratic front. Three Democratic senators voted in favor of the temporary bill that Republicans called "clean"—meaning it included no political conditions. If just five more senators waver, the Democrats will no longer be able to maintain their tactic of preventing the vote through prolonged debate.

Third, the situation is becoming increasingly unfavorable for the Democratic Party. While initial polls showed a majority of Americans blaming Trump and the Republicans, this is unusual, given that it was the Democrats who refused to vote to pass the budget.

Over time, as the real impact of the government shutdown becomes clearer—for example, soldiers not receiving their pay on October 15th—public patience with the Democrats' tactics may gradually run out, even though they may still sympathize with the goal of maintaining expanded health care benefits under the Obamacare program.

Second scenario,An agreement for future Obamacare negotiations. CNN suggests this is perhaps the most viable way for the Democrats to achieve something from the current crisis.

It's not that the Republicans will concede to all of the Democrats' demands in the budget bill, but they may offer a commitment to later discussions regarding extending the expanded health care benefits of Obamacare.

In fact, the Republican Party also has political reasons to maintain these subsidies, at least in some form. According to a KFF poll, 78% of Americans, including 57% of voters who support the MAGA movement, approve of extending the subsidies, and many of the beneficiaries live in Republican states.

Some Republican senators have also proposed compromise options, creating pressure from within the party to end the deadlock sooner. And President Trump might support this option, because although he once opposed Obamacare, he is not as strict about budget deficits as many other members of the party.

However, this solution remains met with skepticism. Democrats argue that merely promising “future discussions” is insufficient, while Republicans are reluctant to predetermine the limits of negotiations while the government remains paralyzed. Furthermore, making any commitment now could be seen as a “victory” for the Democrats, forcing Republicans to swallow a bitter pill in exchange for ending the crisis.

The third scenario,Another concession from the Republican party. Obamacare subsidies are perhaps the most likely."This is the easiest card to concede in the current political climate, but it's not the only option at the negotiating table.

Part of the reason Democrats are reluctant to pass the budget is that they no longer trust the Trump administration and the Republican Party to abide by the terms approved by Congress. That trust has been eroded by the Trump administration's repeated unilateral invalidation of congressionally approved spending, disregarding legislative will.

Alternatively, the Democrats might seek another form of concession—symbolic or political—simply to save face and justify the decision to reopen the government.

Scenario 4,The Republican party is making concessions. This is probably the case.The least likely scenario, almost unprecedented in recent history. However, if the Democrats persist to the end, and the Republicans are ultimately forced to accept their demands, how might that unfold?

One possibility iscThe crisis dragged on, while opinion polls consistently showed people blaming Trump and the Republican Party. At that point, political pressure mounted, forcing them to seek a way out.

Or perhaps, the American people have clearly expressed their desire to maintain Obamacare subsidies, giving the Democrats grounds to hold their ground and demand a more concrete agreement instead of vague promises.

Another scenario: The Republican Party begins to fear its image being tarnished, as they are seen as the party wanting to cut off healthcare benefits for millions of people. Or, more simply, President Trump loses patience, believing that this concession is insignificant, especially since the Republicans may have to do so later, whether they like it or not. It's also possible that the Trump administration goes too far with retaliatory cuts, causing the crisis to backfire and harm them – something some Republican lawmakers have warned about beforehand.

However, this scenario is almost entirely hypothetical. If it were to actually happen, it would mark a major turning point in the balance of power in Washington, and that is precisely why President Trump would do everything he could to avoid bowing down and making concessions.