4 mistakes the US President should avoid when meeting the North Korean leader
(Baonghean.vn) - In the context of the upcoming summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, it is more important than ever that President Donald Trump enters the negotiating table not only with a comprehensive policy plan, but also with a strategy that avoids the mistakes made by previous administrations.
 |
| North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump. Photo: AP |
If Mr. Trump presents a coherent, clear-eyed proposal that does not follow the path of past mistakes and offers satisfactory solutions, he will have hit the target of complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization.
1. Lack of unshakable determination
Former President Obama’s “strategic patience” strategy of turning a blind eye to North Korea’s accelerating nuclear program has been a historic success. In contrast to the hawkish approach of the George W. Bush administration, President Obama’s less provocative strategy has been welcomed by the six-party talks participants: the United States, North Korea, South Korea, China, Russia and Japan.
President Donald Trump’s recent success in coaxing Kim out of isolation suggests that more patience is needed to force Pyongyang to consider reaching a lasting deal to give up its nuclear weapons.
However, determination and persistence will not be enough to achieve denuclearization. President Trump must continue to demonstrate his willingness to effectively apply tough strategic and political pressure (in the form of joint military exercises, maritime blockades, and reports of human rights violations) alongside the harsh economic sanctions imposed by China.
2. Abuse of negotiation tools
Based on the failed Agreed Framework that President Bill Clinton signed with North Korea in 1994, a strategy of “winning hearts” alone would be unlikely to achieve the goal of eliminating the entire nuclear program. Similarly, a policy of addressing the threat alone would be ineffective, as it would suggest that the policy has no chance of surviving without nuclear weapons.
 |
| North Korea's nuclear weapons are not just intended to deter real or potential military threats. Photo: Getty |
Therefore, President Trump needs to outline a policy that carefully calculates the costs and benefits of denuclearization from North Korea’s vantage point. Because the nuclear program is intrinsically linked to the survival of the North Korean regime, Kim will never accept giving it up unless the costs are extremely high, forcing the regime to change, while the benefits bring a high chance of survival.
Therefore, President Trump needs to apply a “carrot and stick” policy: the threat of sanctions coupled with a commitment to economic modernization and sustainable growth.
3. Lack of absolute support from relevant countries
According to analysis by Mr. Scott Snyder, director of US-Korea policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, previous administrations failed to deal with North Korea because they put their own security concerns above collective needs, implementing selfish policies that did not take into account the interests of the countries involved, so these policies did not receive widespread support.
The experience of the Bush administration is that with the support of parties (especially Russia and China) to implement global sanctions, North Korea can hardly reject it, otherwise it will face regime change.
4. Failure to acknowledge the true nature of the nuclear program
North Korea’s nuclear weapons are not only a deterrent against actual or potential military threats, but also a cornerstone of the regime’s legitimacy. The development of nuclear weapons directly fulfills the wishes of North Korea’s late leader Kim Jong-il and its founder, Kim Il-sung. As such, the weapons program cannot simply be dismantled, even in the face of the threat of mass starvation or total annihilation.
 |
| The nuclear weapons program that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is pursuing is not only intended to deter real or potential military threats, but also to lay the foundation for the regime's legitimacy. Photo: Getty |
To counter, Mr Trump needs to offer a deal that maintains North Korea’s revered status, through a transition to a market-oriented system, with sustained economic growth of at least 10%, secured by development funds from South Korea – no less than $30 billion annually for a minimum of 10 years.
CIA director secretly met with Kim Jong-un
The Washington Post reported on April 17 that Mike Pompeo, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the nominee for Secretary of State by US President Donald Trump, made a secret visit to North Korea over Easter last weekend and met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Concerns Trump could fall into trap in meeting Kim Jong-un
Experts are concerned that Trump is not well prepared and could fall into North Korea's "traps" in the upcoming summit.
