Shinzo Abe's 8 years as Japanese Prime Minister: Storms and glory

On August 24, Mr. Shinzo Abe became Japan's longest-serving Prime Minister.Shinzo AbeWhen he returned to power in December 2012, many feared he would steer Japan toward the conservative nationalism they saw in his speeches, language, and actions.

They raised concerns that Mr Abe would worsen relations with regional neighbours, that he would change the pacifist Constitution, or that he would call for a review of history and disregard women's rights.

Looking back, Prime Minister Abe’s tenure is very different from the above thinking of domestic and international decentralists. Like all other political leaders, his time in power has had its successes, failures, and missed opportunities. But it will be difficult for any successor to succeed in making Japan as influential on the international stage as under his predecessor.Shinzo Abe.

Abenomics and Womenomics Strategy

Following the leaders of the Meiji Restoration, in Japan's modernization, Mr. Abe initiated Abenomics, an economic strategy that combined quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus through government spending programs and regulatory reform.

These policies were initially quite positive, until two consumption tax hikes were passed in 2014 and 2019, which were deemed inappropriate. The World Bank and others have argued that Abenomics has failed because it was not strong enough in structural reform.

The economic turmoil has been exacerbated by US President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies and the US-China trade war, which have negatively impacted Japanese businesses. This has been followed by the economic crisis stemming from the Covid-19 pandemic, leaving Japan’s current economic situation with virtually no progress compared to the end of 2012.

Along with Abenomics, Mr. Abe also initiated the Womenomics campaign, aiming for “Japan, where women can shine.”

According to a 2019 Goldman Sachs report: “Japan now has a record high female employment rate (71%), surpassing the US and Europe, generous family leave benefits, gender transparency and improved labor reforms.” The same report highlighted “a dearth of female leaders, gender pay gaps, inflexible labor contracts, tax incentives, inadequate caregiving and bias” that were not fully addressed by Mr. Abe’s policies.

In fact, only a handful of Cabinet members are women and only 10% of seats in the House of Representatives are held by female lawmakers, suggesting that women’s rights have not been a priority for Japan’s leaders. As a result, womenomics has not had the desired effect in helping to improve gender inequality in Japan.

To improve the situation, Japan needs to learn more from international companies headquartered in the country that have succeeded in placing women in leadership and management positions, offering more flexible labor contracts and dealing with the obstacles outlined in the Goldman Sachs report.

Responses to the Covid-19 pandemic

Abe’s handling of the quarantine of the Diamond Princess cruise ship in early February was also met with criticism, despite similar measures taken by the US, Australia and other countries on their cruise ships.

The Japanese Prime Minister’s declaration of a state of emergency in April was also seen as belated, although infections have since temporarily eased. Japan has now recorded more than 65,000 cases of Covid-19, including 1,200 deaths, with daily new cases falling from a peak of 1,998 on August 3 to 701 on August 26 (236 in Tokyo). The course of the pandemic in the coming year may have more positive or negative impacts on Prime Minister Abe’s domestic legacy than his other signature policies.

Difficulties and achievements on the international front

When he took office in late 2012, Abe also inherited Sino-Japanese relations that had been severely damaged after the Democratic Party of Japan government asserted sovereignty over the Senkaku Islands. Surprisingly, he has succeeded in smoothing the bilateral relationship (although disputes remain). In particular, a state visit by President Xi Jinping, scheduled for this spring but postponed, has been a major success.

Mr. Shinze Abe shook hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the meeting on the sidelines of APEC 2017 held in Da Nang, Vietnam. Photo: Xinhua

Abe’s diplomatic efforts are expected to produce a “fifth political document,” a document that will set the tone and nature of Japan-China relations for the next decade. But the Covid-19 pandemic has heightened skepticism toward China among the Japanese public and conservative policymakers, and escalating tensions between the US and China could hamper the document’s development and Xi’s state visit.

At the same time, relations with South Korea have not been smooth. In December 2015, Mr. Abe reached an agreement with the South Korean government on women's rights, creating the possibility of laying the foundation for bilateral relations to improve.

But the initial progress in Japan-South Korea relations stalled with the election of President Moon Jae-in in 2017. Coupled with Moon’s changes to the women’s rights agreement, his threat to withdraw from the GSOMIA intelligence-sharing pact, and a South Korean Supreme Court ruling ordering Japanese companies to compensate Korean wartime laborers, bilateral relations have plunged to their worst since Tokyo and Seoul normalized relations in 1965. Politicians and the public’s views of each other have also deteriorated to a record low.

Unlike security issues between China and Japan that still have room for improvement in the future, the Japan-South Korea relationship has been undermined by politics in both countries, despite the fact that the two sides share common norms, political systems, and many regional interests.

Mr. Abe is probably one of the few Japanese politicians who can reset bilateral relations by taking steps or measures to resolve some of the core issues that divide the two countries. Promoting large-scale cultural, educational and business exchanges is one of those measures, he creates conditions for the people of the two countries to learn about each other's culture and society, aiming to build good relations in the future instead of keeping grudges in the past.

Arguably Mr Abe’s biggest challenge in office has been balancing the Japan-US relationship since Donald Trump was elected. President Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, imposed tariffs on Japanese steel and aluminum, started a trade war with China and encouraged Japan to sign a mini-trade deal last September, all while rejecting the value of alliances and demanding that Japan and other alliance partners change their burden-sharing arrangements with the US.

Prime Minister Abe has responded to the US moves on several levels. First, he has sought to personalize his relationship with the US leader while limiting his critical comments about Mr. Trump and his administration.

Abe then bolstered both the quality and quantity of Japan’s diplomatic staff in Washington through increasingly frequent visits by Self-Defense Forces officers, politicians, academics, tank researchers, and business leaders. This has strengthened the Japan-US relationship, making it less susceptible to Trump’s random tweets or false statements.

Final,Prime Minister of JapanJapan has invested heavily in multilateralism and the promotion of a rules-based order. Using its Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and the Economic Partnership Agreement with the European Union (EPA), Japan has been attracting more members to the FOIP, aiming to secure a trade market and build a rules-based community.

The Partnership for Sustainable Connectivity and Quality Infrastructure between the European Union and Japan and the Australia-Japan-US Trilateral Infrastructure Partnership are testaments to Mr. Abe's approach of strengthening relations with the US while increasing Japan's partners, demonstrating autonomy in foreign policy.

Impressions after 8 years

While domestically, his core policies have fallen short due to a lack of structural reforms, limited improvements in women's rights, and external pressures, reforms in corporate governance, the relaxation of immigration regulations, and other reforms to the domestic economy are giving Japan momentum.

At the international level, he has had astute geopolitical conversations, earning praise from critics of regional power, such as the Lowy Institute's Asia Power Index, which sees Japan as “the leader of the liberal order in Asia.”

The ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s State of Southeast Asia 2020 survey also confirms this, showing that Japan is the most trusted country in the region, a result of Shinzo Abe’s leadership during his tenure as prime minister.

Whoever becomes Japan's next leader will have much to learn from Mr. Abe's leadership./.