Global food security 'in jeopardy' again

The last straw

The Russian Defense and Foreign Ministries simultaneously announced the suspension of their participation in the grain export agreement for an indefinite period, citing the fact that Russia could no longer guarantee the safety of civilian cargo ships. Russia accused Ukraine of a “terrorist attack” using drones on ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, Crimea, and civilian ships involved in ensuring the security of the grain transit corridor.

Russia accuses Ukraine of attacking the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea. Photo: The Times

Russia said it had destroyed nine drones and seven maritime aircraft and said it would raise the issue of increased drone attacks at a UN Security Council meeting, as Saturday's attack was the largest the Crimean peninsula had ever seen. In addition to accusing Ukraine of carrying out the attack, Russia also accused the British military of helping prepare and train Ukraine, although this information was denied by the British side.

Russia had raised the possibility of suspending the grain deal two weeks ago. In an interview with Reuters, Gennady Gatilov, Russia's ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva, said Moscow was concerned that the deal was not being implemented fairly. Under the deal, which Russia and Ukraine signed alongside Turkey, Russia would facilitate the movement of Ukrainian grain ships from ports in the Odessa region to world markets, while Western countries would also facilitate Russia's exports of fertilizer and grain.

However, Russia believes that the second part of the agreement has not been fully implemented. Although the US and its Western allies have stressed that food and fertilizers are not among the Russian goods subject to sanctions, Russia has reported that Western importers have had difficulty working with banks to import Russian fertilizers and food. The legal uncertainty caused by the sanctions has made Western companies hesitant to work with Russian companies.

Ukrainian grain stuck at ports in Odessa. Photo: Bloomberg

Given the difficulties in export activities in recent times, even after signing an agreement to establish a “grain corridor” with Türkiye, the attack on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is considered the “last straw”. Russia’s anger at these escalating actions can be explained by the fact that Sevastopol in Crimea, annexed by Russia, has been targeted many times in recent months, while it is an important logistics center for Russian military operations in Ukraine. When the explosion on the Crimean bridge occurred nearly a month ago, Russian experts warned of the connection to the grain transport corridor, because according to Russia’s announcement, the explosion on the Crimean ship was caused by explosives transported from Odessa – where Ukraine’s Black Sea port is located.

When the Black Sea Fleet was attacked, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Federation Council K. Kosachev said that Russia had not fully assessed the role of the grain transport corridor in the incident, so Russia would indefinitely suspend its participation in the grain export agreement. Analysts said that with this statement, there was almost no possibility that Russia would extend the agreement after November 19 - the date when the agreement previously signed between Russia, Ukraine and Türkiye expired.

The world is "restless"

At the time Russia and Ukraine signed a grain export agreement with Türkiye, world public opinion considered this a rather fragile agreement, and what has just happened has proven this assessment. It should be recalled that, before Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine, both Russia and Ukraine were the two countries with the largest market shares in the global market: each country held 29%.

At the time, Ukraine exported up to 6 million tons of grain per month. But when the conflict broke out on February 24, Ukraine’s exports plummeted to 300,000 tons in March, about 1 million tons in April and 1.7 million tons in May. The inability to leave ports left Ukraine with tens of millions of tons of grain. The agreement allowing grain exports between Russia, Ukraine and Türkiye was crucial in easing the global food crisis. Since it was signed, it has freed up about 9 million tons of grain.

In September alone, Ukraine exported 3.7 million tons of grain, 2.2 times higher than in August, and according to initial plans, this number will continue to increase after the agreement was extended on November 19, possibly even reaching the pre-conflict level of 6 million tons/month.

Russia’s move to withdraw from the grain deal has left the world “on edge”, especially in the context of escalating prices, including food prices, which remain a difficult problem for many governments. Before the grain deal was signed, a global food crisis was threatening the whole world, and the United Nations repeatedly warned of famine in underdeveloped countries.

The risk of the world falling into this situation again has many people worried. Experts have even warned that the agreement not being renewed this month could create panic in global food markets, especially for countries that depend on imports.

Rising food prices will continue to put pressure on inflation in the medium term, which could exacerbate social unrest and even political unrest as people around the world become discontented with the way governments have handled the Ukraine crisis. That is why many leaders have called on Russia to reverse its decision on the grain export deal. European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Russia’s decision posed a risk to global food markets, while US President Joe Biden called Russia’s response to the attacks “outrageous.”

Responding to criticism that Russia is having a negative impact on the global food market, the Kremlin argued that only a small part of Ukraine’s grain exports under international agreements go to poor countries, with the majority going to the EU. Russia pointed out that in 2011, the European market accounted for only 28% of Ukraine’s grain exports, but this year it had increased to 81%.

The United Nations is concerned about global food security. Photo: Forbes

While the parties continue to argue over Russia’s move, the United Nations has stressed the importance of dialogue to resume the grain corridor. UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said the agency is in contact with Russian officials. Turkey, which brokered the grain deal, is also working to salvage the deal.

It is too early to know whether the talks will change Russia’s mind, but in a positive sign, Andrey Kortunov, director general of the Russian Council on International Affairs, has suggested that the grain export deal could be resumed if Russia receives guarantees that attacks on the Black Sea Fleet will not be repeated in the future.

It can be said that the prolonged conflict in Ukraine is causing many negative impacts on the world, from inflation, to energy crisis, food insecurity... All parties involved in the conflict at this time understand that no one can win completely. Therefore, diplomacy and negotiation are the only way to end the conflict, and first of all, to "save" global food security.