'American unknown' in Astana

(Baonghean) - According to plan, peace negotiations for Syria under the auspices of Russia and Türkiye will take place in the capital Astana of Kazakhstan on January 23. However, at present, whether the US will participate in these negotiations or not has not been confirmed with certainty...

The invitation is uncertain.

A series of regional media outlets such as Anadolu, Al Jazeera, Middle East Eye... last weekend simultaneously reported that Russia and Türkiye agreed on the need to invite the US to participate in the upcoming peace talks for Syria in Astana.

The Washington Post also reported more specifically that Russian Ambassador to Washington Sergey Kislyak sent an invitation to attend to Michael Flynn - the national security advisor appointed by US President-elect Donald Trump - via a phone call.

However, all information about Russia and Türkiye inviting the US to attend the Astana talks was quoted from Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu at a press conference in Geneva, Switzerland, without any official confirmation from Russia. The US State Department itself confirmed on January 14 that it had not received an official invitation.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu confirmed that Türkiye and Russia invited the US to attend talks in Astana (AFP).

The little information available from Russia so far is the cautious attitude of Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on January 13 when he said: "I cannot say anything about inviting the US to the negotiations yet", along with the general view that Russia wants the composition of the negotiations to be expanded to all parties that have a role in reaching a political solution in Syria.

According to analysts, although Russia is determined to be "dominating the game" on the Syrian battlefield, the fact that this country "lifted up and put down" the decision to send an invitation to the US shows that Russia is carefully calculating the boundaries for the US's role in Syria.

Russia cannot "ignore" the US

Peace talks between the conflicting parties in Syria under the auspices of Russia and Türkiye have been scheduled for January 23 in the capital Astana, with the participation of Syrian government forces and seven opposition armed groups with about 60,000 fighters, not including the self-proclaimed “Islamic State” (IS) terrorist group and fighters of the former Al-Nusra Front linked to the international terrorist network Al-Qaeda.

The talks followed a ceasefire that took effect on December 30 across Syria between the Syrian government and rebel groups, proposed by Russia and Türkiye. Notably, the ceasefire, which did not involve the US, is considered by public opinion to be more effective than the two previous ceasefires sponsored by Russia and the US, the ceasefires in February 2016 and September 2016.

The UN Security Council’s welcome and support for Russia and Türkiye’s efforts to end the violence in Syria and restart a political process also partly reflects the US’s “sideline” position after many years of deep intervention in Syria, aiming to overthrow the regime of President Bashar al Assad. Even the decision by Russia and Türkiye to bring the peace talks to Astana is a strategic calculation to indirectly “sideline” the US role in this issue.

However, with less than a month to go until the negotiations, the information about Russia sending an invitation to the US shows that perhaps Russia understands that it cannot completely “ignore” the role of the US. Firstly, although the US has recently lost the initiative in Syria to Russia, that does not mean that the US no longer has any influence on the opposition forces on the Syrian battlefield.

The Astana talks are expected to bring peace to Syria after six years of war (Daily News).

Second, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, the Astana talks are a supplement to, and not a replacement for, the UN-backed Geneva talks, which will take place in February, following the Astana talks.

The US will certainly be an indispensable party in Geneva, so the US consensus throughout Astana and Geneva will increase the possibility of the parties reaching an agreement on a political roadmap for Syria. In addition, there is another factor that cannot be ignored after this calculation of Russia, which is that the US participation in Astana will be the first sign of increased cooperation between Russia and the US under the new administration of Donald Trump.

Unknown from the US side

In a recent press conference, US Secretary of State John Kerry said that the US is working to promote the negotiations in Astana and hopes that the negotiations will create a new step towards bringing peace to Syria.

Since then, the US has made little move to demonstrate its role in Astana, beyond occasional phone calls with the foreign ministers of Russia, Türkiye and Arab countries about ceasefire efforts, and occasional talks with the opposition.

The Astana peace talks will take place three days after Donald Trump is sworn in as US President. This is considered the first “test” of Donald Trump’s handling of relations with Russia. So far, Trump’s transition team has not revealed any clear signs of its intentions with Syria.

Although Donald Trump is “in trouble” after acknowledging Russia’s involvement in the recent US presidential election, he still declared that Russia and the US can cooperate on “some fronts”. According to analysts, the “some fronts” that Trump referred to could include Syria. However, all scenarios are still just predictions, and the “American unknown” can only be accurately solved in Astana on January 23.

Thuy Ngoc