President Trump's 'return to Syria' problem and Russia's accusations

Policy reversal

Exactly three weeks after deciding to withdraw troops from the northeastern Syrian battlefield, creating conditions for Türkiye to launch a campaign against Kurdish military forces there, the administration of US President Donald Trump has made a move in the opposite direction. On November 2, a US military convoy entered a Kurdish-controlled area in northeastern Syria, where US representatives met with Kurdish officials.

This is the second visit since the US announced its withdrawal from the border area with Türkiye. According to the source, armored vehicles flying the US flag stopped in front of the headquarters of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), outside the city of Qamishli. The convoy also passed the positions of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) - the core force of the SDF and Kurdish security forces in the area. During this visit, the US also informed the Kurdish community here about the plan to return to the city of Qamishli. AFP quoted a source who attended the meetings between the US military and the Kurds as saying: "They will establish an important military base in Qamishli".

US armored vehicles and troops return to northeastern Syria to secure oil fields. Photo: AP

The US began deploying reinforcements to Syria’s oil-rich east on October 26, when a US-flagged military convoy from Iraq crossed the border into the war-torn country. The US had previously reinforced its positions in Deir al-Zor province with additional military equipment in cooperation with Kurdish fighters from the SDF. The US said the aim was to prevent the Islamic State (IS) terrorist organization and other forces from gaining access to the oil fields.

Explaining his dramatic change in policy toward northeastern Syria, US President Donald Trump said the US deployed troops in Syria to protect oil fields and wanted to leave border patrols to Türkiye. “We want to bring the troops home, but we’re keeping them because we want to guard the oil. I like the oil. We’re guarding the oil,” the US President told reporters outside the White House on November 1 before heading to Tupelo, Mississippi, to attend the “Keep America Great” rally.

Mr Trump asserted that many parties can and are patrolling the Syrian border, not just the US. “Türkiye has been fighting for 1,000 years and let them take over the border, we don’t want to do that,” Mr Trump added.

The White House chief's statement sent two messages to the world. First, the US has "created the maximum conditions" for its ally Türkiye to realize its desire to prevent the Kurdish community in northeastern Syria from growing strong enough to establish an autonomous region there. That is the seed to incite and support the Kurds in Türkiye, Iraq or Iran to do the same. How far Türkiye will go to defeat the will of the Kurds is up to them. Second, Syria is still a priority for the Donald Trump administration at a certain level of strategic security. The US will not get too involved, but will try to maintain its interests here.

America will remain a counterweight in Syria's future

The US withdrew troops from northern Syria before Türkiye launched a military operation on October 9 against IS and Kurdish militias there. President Trump said he wanted to "get out of endless wars", but he later changed his mind and said he needed to hold Syria's oil fields and prevent IS from retaking them. According to Defense Secretary Mark Esper, the US military will continue to withdraw from northern Syria and the number of troops remaining in the country is expected to be less than 1,000. Oil and gas facilities in eastern Syria have been a controversial subject, with the US threatening to attack any force approaching them, including Russian and Syrian troops. Defense Secretary Esper said oil revenues would be given to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to maintain their strength and manage IS prisoner camps.

US soldiers in Syria with Kurdish soldiers. Photo source: Reuters

Russia accused the US of “taking control of oil fields in eastern Syria by force” and called it “state robbery”. Russia said US soldiers and mercenaries protect Syrian oil exploitation and smuggling activities, earning more than $30 million a month, which is then paid to private security companies and US intelligence agencies; this form of “protection” is a way for the US to maintain its presence here, and is also an excuse to plot longer-term plans in Syria, once things change.

In fact, most of Syria’s oil and gas fields are concentrated in the northeast of the country, producing 385,000 barrels per day before the civil war began in 2011. Even if it returns to its pre-conflict peak, Syria’s oil industry will still contribute little to the global market, accounting for less than 0.5% of the world’s total oil supply. That same year, the US produced 5.7 million barrels per day, and has now increased that to 12.6 million barrels per day. Therefore, the “energy security” rationale seems unlikely to justify a return to the “oil hubs” in this unstable land. Experts say the economic value that Syria’s oil fields bring to the US is not high, but it could be a valuable bargaining chip for Washington with Moscow and Damascus.

Although it does not have much economic value, oil in Syria will decide the future of peace in this country. Photo: CNN

The US once poured a lot of money into supporting "moderate" rebel groups against the Assad regime. However, after Russia's military intervention in Syria, the rebel groups were defeated one by one, losing all areas of control in southern Syria and forced to retreat to Idlib province on the Turkish border. The US then turned to supporting the Kurdish militia to maintain its position and influence in Syria. However, the US's reputation was severely damaged when the Donald Trump administration decided to withdraw its troops in early October, making Russia almost the most important voice on the Syrian chessboard.

Controlling the oil fields, which are the most important source of revenue for the Bashar al Assad regime, would give the US a say in post-civil war negotiations and determine the rights of the opposition and the Kurdish militias - two groups with which the US could ally (albeit in the short term). Controlling the oil fields would give the US the “motive force” for Syria’s post-war economic recovery, which would require a lot of resources and money. Therefore, although they have little economic value, the oil fields in Syria are still a goal that the US cannot give up.

Map of Syria's oil industry. Source: SouthFront.org