When will Southeast Asia fulfill its World Cup dream?

Of course, it's almost "default" that besides top teams like Japan, South Korea, Iran, Australia, and Saudi Arabia (5 spots) who have qualified for the World Cup many times, this time the opportunity will go to mid-level teams like China, Uzbekistan, UAE, and Iraq… (the remaining 3-3.5 spots).

However, football is full of surprises, so hopefully there will be some "errors" in the above assessment, so that even a slim chance won't be too far out of reach for Vietnam or Thailand.

In the history of regional football, Indonesia participated in the 1938 World Cup without having to play in the qualifying rounds (as the East Indies, a Dutch colony), but now they are struggling immensely to secure a spot in the third round of the Asian World Cup qualifiers.

Meanwhile, Thailand reached the third round in the 2002 and 2018 World Cups but only managed draws and finished last in their groups. Vietnam reached the third round in the 2022 World Cup, with one 3-1 win against China and one 1-1 draw against Japan, but still finished last in their group and are still striving to improve.

This World Cup 2026 qualifying campaign has advanced to the second round in the region, alongside teams like Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Singapore. Group F includes the Philippines, Vietnam, and Iraq. This is a significant advantage, as the top spot in the group is unlikely to slip from Iraq's grasp, while the second qualifying spot for the third round is predicted to be a race between Indonesia and Vietnam.

Meanwhile, Thailand is in Group C with South Korea and China, making it very difficult for the Thai team. Malaysia is in Group D with Oman, Kyrgyzstan, and Chinese Taipei, teams that aren't too strong, so they still have a chance. Many believe that Vietnam has the best chance of reaching the third round, but generally, those are just initial predictions, and the reality will be much harsher.

By this point, the regional teams had completed their first round of the second qualifying stage on November 16th, with favorable results for Vietnam (winning away against the Philippines by two goals) while Indonesia suffered a crushing 1-5 defeat against Iraq and Malaysia (winning at home against Kyrgyzstan 4-3). Thailand lost 1-2 at home to China, signaling that coach Polking's position is under serious threat. The other teams also suffered heavy defeats, as predicted, against stronger opponents.

The upcoming matches on November 21st will provide further insight into which team will gain an early advantage to advance further in the tournament. The Vietnamese team will face Iraq, who are brimming with confidence after their comfortable victory against Indonesia, as mentioned earlier.

Under Park Hang-seo, the Vietnamese national team once played on equal footing with this West Asian opponent in the 2019 Asian Cup, only losing by a narrow margin of 2-3. Similarly, in 2015, during the 2018 World Cup qualifiers, the two teams drew 1-1 at My Dinh Stadium under coach Miura.

Iraq, a former Asian champion, remains a major force in Asian football despite facing numerous difficulties. Therefore, in the upcoming home match against Iraq, the Vietnamese national team will face significant challenges in achieving even a single point or simply minimizing the number of goals conceded to be able to compete with Indonesia later on.

Meanwhile, Indonesia will play away against the Philippines, and after their crushing defeat in the first match, they may be able to regain their form. However, if Indonesia doesn't get a favorable result compared to Vietnam against the Philippines, they will be pushing themselves further away from their goal of advancing to the third round. Thailand's match against Singapore is an opportunity for them to find victory and keep their hopes of a comeback alive later, although it will be difficult…

For the Vietnamese national team, theoretically, they haven't faced much difficulty against either Indonesia or the Philippines, but who knows what the future holds when things are constantly changing and we have to wait and see. Philippe Troussier failed to beat Indonesia at the U23 level during the SEA Games 32, and even at what was considered his peak, Park Hang-seo didn't beat Indonesia in the AFF Cup 2022.

After a long period of finishing second in the region, Indonesian football finally won a gold medal at the 32nd SEA Games, despite the embarrassing violence it displayed. The upcoming match between Troussier and Shin Tae-yong will undoubtedly be worth watching, as they were both successful World Cup coaches.

Of course, the results in Group F also affect Iraq and the Philippines, so any outcome is important. For example, Indonesia's recent 1-5 defeat to Iraq is a major disadvantage that a later-playing team like Vietnam will do everything to avoid repeating in order to gain an advantage later on.

The race among regional teams is heating up, with Polking, Shin Tae-yong, and even Troussier potentially losing their positions if they don't achieve the desired results, particularly for Vietnam in their home game against Iraq. However, Troussier clearly holds the upper hand because he dares to act, dares to change, and his young players are proving that this is entirely feasible, both in the short and long term.

No one taxes dreams, not even World Cup dreams, but clearly, there's a huge gap between dreams and reality, a gap that's not easily bridged. For Vietnamese football, that gap seemed so close, but once it was, it was clear it was still… a long way off!