German Election: Can No One Stop Merkel?

Few people doubt that Angela Merkel will have another four years in the German Chancellor's chair.

Outstanding advantages

Elections often produce dramatic moments, and sometimes a decisive turning point. But the German federal election on 24 September clearly does not follow that logic.

Polls have been showing "boring" results over and over again for months. Specifically, according to the results of a poll by the Forsa Institute on September 19, about 36% of German voters will vote for the coalition between the Christian Democrats - CDU and Merkel's Christian Social Union (CSU), while the number of voters declared to vote for the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is 23%. Another, newer poll, by GMS on September 21, showed that the CDU-CSU alliance will win 37% of the vote, while the SPD will only get 22%.

In other words, Angela Merkel is almost "giving" her main opponent, Martin Schulz of the SPD party, half the race ahead, but will still surpass and win the race for the German Chancellor position, thereby sitting in that position for the 4th consecutive term.

Ms. Angela Merkel. Photo: Time

But this superiority of Mrs. Merkel and the CDU-CSU alliance is creating another dilemma, that is, because Mrs. Merkel's victory is seen by many as a given, the number of voters going to the polls is likely to be lower than usual.

The forecast figure is that about 34% of German voters will abstain from voting, or will be undecided about whether to vote or not, compared to 29% in the previous election, in 2013. As it stands now, about a third of German voters are undecided about whether to sacrifice a Sunday to vote in an election that is considered a foregone conclusion.

Although the possibility is very low, this could be an unpredictable factor of the election because the more absent voters there are, the more opportunities there are for far-right or populist parties because their supporters are always very active in voting.

That is the reason why both Mrs. Merkel and Mr. Schulz are calling on German voters to turn out in large numbers to prevent the rise of far-right parties such as AfD or Die Linke, which follow the far-left line.

Stable but lacking vision?

Merkel still enjoys a higher approval rating than any of her political rivals. Nearly two-thirds of Germans still think she is doing a good job. Some 59% of Germans are satisfied with the current state of the German economy and think the country is on the right track, and 80% feel Germany is at the center of international politics, especially in Europe.

Germans generally prefer stability and Ms. Merkel is a successful example of stability and predictability in policy. That is why Ms. Merkel has maintained a strong political position for more than a decade.

Of course, it is not without criticism. Because of Ms. Merkel's overemphasis on stability, both domestically and internationally through the "German model", she has been criticized by her opponents for lacking vision or bold policy decisions.

The most serious criticisms have focused on the fact that Ms. Merkel's government, in order to maintain a budget surplus, has been too frugal in public investment, while Germany is the world's leading exporting country and has an annual trade surplus of several hundred billion euros. This lack of public spending is said to have caused Germany's infrastructure to deteriorate and the quality of its people to not improve accordingly.

The second issue that Merkel has been criticized for is her refugee policy. This is a very sensitive topic and although Merkel's government has handled it relatively well in the past few years, opponents and opponents still believe that Merkel's opening of Germany's borders to millions of refugees will threaten Germany's security environment and increase social tensions.

Grand alliance and small alliance

Up to this point, in fact, political analysts in Germany and Europe all believe that the biggest challenge for Ms. Merkel and the CDU party is not to win the election on September 24, but which party to form a coalition with afterward?

The most talked about scenario is a “Grand Coalition”, which would include the CDU-CSU and the SPD, the CDU’s main rival. The advantage of such a “Grand Coalition” is stability, but the problem is that in the eyes of the majority of the German people, this three-party coalition is too boring and kills domestic political debate.

The SPD itself may not be willing to spend another four years in the shadow of its biggest rival, the CDU. Last week, Mr. Schulz laid out four conditions for a coalition with the CDU-CSU, and he himself commented that it would be difficult for Mrs. Merkel to accept them.

The next scenario is a coalition with smaller parties such as the Free Democrats – FDP or the Greens. But with these parties, the problem lies in the foreign policy aspect, that is, these parties have very contradictory, sometimes uncompromising, views with the CDU-CSU or with Germany's major partners in Europe, such as France, on issues related to reform of the European Union.

Therefore, choosing which party to form a coalition with will be a complicated problem for Mrs. Merkel. Only one thing is certain, that is, Mrs. Merkel will not form a coalition with the two left-wing and right-wing parties, the Left Party - Die Linke and the AfD party.

Merkel-Macron duo waiting for action

Germany is the number one power in Europe and Angela Merkel is widely seen as the most powerful leader in Europe. Therefore, if Merkel wins and continues to stay in office, it will be good news for the European Union because the general election in Germany is the last key political event in Europe in recent times, after Brexit and the French presidential election.

The current situation is very favorable for Europe because in France, Mr. Macron has been showing himself to be a leader who strongly supports the European Union and Mr. Macron has also built a good personal relationship with Mrs. Merkel. The Merkel-Macron duo is considered to have taken shape and only after the election in Germany will the two German-French locomotives launch strong reforms in Europe.

In France, Mr. Macron has even prepared a speech on his plans to reform the European Union and will announce it right after the German election ends.

Therefore, overall, there will not be any major negative changes in Europe, but the Merkel-Macron duo may speed up the reform of the European Union, especially in the political-defense aspect because Ms. Merkel has a very strong reaction to the new US policies towards Europe after Mr. Donald Trump became President.

It is likely that the world will witness a more assertive and independent Europe in the near future, under the leadership of the Merkel-Macron duo./.

According to VOV