German elections: Can no one stop Merkel?

Few would doubt that Angela Merkel will have another four years in the German Chancellor's seat.

Superior advantages

Elections often create tense moments, and sometimes a decisive turning point. But the upcoming federal general election in Germany on September 24th clearly doesn't follow that logic.

Opinion polls have been producing "boring" and repetitive results for months. Specifically, according to a Forsa poll on September 19th, approximately 36% of German voters would vote for a coalition between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Merkel's Christian Social Union (CSU), while 23% declared their support for the Social Democratic Party (SPD). A more recent poll by GMS on September 21st showed the CDU-CSU coalition winning 37% of the vote, while the SPD would only receive 22%.

In other words, Angela Merkel is practically giving her main rival, Martin Schulz of the SPD, a head start of half the race, but she will still overtake him and win the German Chancellorship, thereby securing a fourth consecutive term in that position.

Angela Merkel. Photo: Time

However, this dominance by Merkel and the CDU-CSU alliance is creating another dilemma: because Merkel's victory is widely seen as a foregone conclusion, voter turnout is likely to be lower than usual.

The forecast is that around 34% of German voters will either not vote, or will be undecided about whether to vote and for whom. This figure was 29% in the 2013 election. Currently, about one-third of German voters have not yet decided whether to sacrifice a Sunday to vote in an election where the outcome is already known.

Although the probability is very low, this could be an unpredictable factor in the election because the more absentee voters there are, the greater the opportunity for far-right or populist parties, as their supporters are always very active in voting.

That is why both Merkel and Schulz are urging German voters to turn out in large numbers to prevent the rise of far-right parties like the Future for Germany (AfD) or the far-left Die Linke.

Stable but lacking vision?

Currently, Chancellor Merkel enjoys significantly higher approval ratings than any of her political rivals. Nearly two-thirds of Germans still believe she is doing a good job. Around 59% of Germans are satisfied with the current state of the German economy and believe the country is heading in the right direction, and as many as 80% feel Germany is at the center of the international political landscape, particularly in Europe.

The German people generally prefer stability, and Merkel is a successful example of stability and predictability in policy. That is why Merkel has maintained a strong political position for over a decade.

Of course, there were criticisms. Because Merkel placed so much emphasis on stability, both domestically and internationally, through the "German model," she was criticized by her opponents for lacking vision or bold decision-making.

The harshest criticisms have focused on issues such as Merkel's government being overly frugal in public investment due to its desire for a budget surplus, despite Germany being a leading global exporter with annual trade surpluses of several hundred billion euros. This low level of public spending is argued to have led to the deterioration of Germany's infrastructure and a failure to improve the quality of life for its citizens.

The second issue on which Merkel has been criticized is her refugee policy. This is a very sensitive topic, and although Merkel's government has handled it relatively well in recent years, opposition groups and protesters still argue that Merkel's opening of Germany's borders to millions of refugees will threaten Germany's security environment and increase social tensions.

Grand coalition and small coalition

At this point, political analysts in Germany and Europe generally agree that Merkel and the CDU party's biggest challenge is not winning the September 24th election, but rather which party to form a coalition with afterward.

The most talked-about scenario is a "Grand Coalition," comprising the CDU, CSU, and the SPD, the CDU's main rival. The advantage of this "Grand Coalition" is stability, but the problem is that, in the eyes of most Germans, this three-party coalition is too boring and stifles domestic political debate.

The SPD itself may not accept another four years living in the shadow of its biggest rival, the CDU. Schulz himself last week laid out four conditions for a coalition with the CDU-CSU and remarked that it was unlikely Merkel would accept those four conditions.

The next scenarios involve coalitions with smaller parties such as the Free Democratic Party (FDP) or the Green Party. However, with these parties, the sticking point lies in foreign policy, meaning they hold very conflicting, sometimes uncompromising, views with the CDU-CSU or with Germany's major European partners, such as France, on issues related to reforming the European Union.

Therefore, choosing which party to form a coalition with will be a complex problem for Merkel. One thing is certain, however: Merkel will not form a coalition with either the left-wing or right-wing parties, namely the Left Party (Die Linke) or the Future for Germany Party (AfD).

The Merkel-Macron duo are poised to act.

Germany is Europe's number one power, and Angela Merkel is widely regarded as Europe's most powerful leader. Therefore, if Merkel wins and remains in office, it would be good news for the European Union, as the German general election is the last major political event in Europe in recent times, following Brexit and the French presidential election.

The current situation is very favorable for Europe because in France, Macron has been demonstrating himself as a fervent supporter of the European Union, and he has also managed to build a fairly good personal relationship with Merkel. The Merkel-Macron partnership is seen as already formed, and after the German elections, the two leading powers of Germany and France will launch strong reforms in Europe.

In France, Macron had even prepared a speech outlining his plans for reforming the European Union and would announce it immediately after the German elections.

Therefore, overall, there will be no major negative changes in Europe, but the Merkel-Macron duo may accelerate the pace of European Union reforms, especially in the political and defense aspects, because Merkel has reacted very strongly to the new US policies towards Europe after Donald Trump became president.

The world is likely to witness a more assertive and independent Europe in the near future, under the leadership of the Merkel-Macron duo.

According to VOV