Early elections in Japan - Prime Minister Abe's 'gamble'?

On October 21, voters in many localities of Japan began voting early in the general election scheduled to officially take place on October 22.

The election comes at a very favorable time for Prime Minister Abe Shinzō as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is gaining increasing support from voters.

The latest opinion polls show that, close to the election day, the LDP's support rate is still above 30%, while the support rate for opposition parties has dropped sharply to below 7%.

Opposition parties are deeply divided on security and constitutional policies.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in early general election (Photo: Reuters)

With a large lead ahead of the election, the LDP is likely to maintain its majority in the Diet.

The ruling coalition is forecast to win more than 300 seats out of the 465 seats in the Lower House, enough to maintain its ability to pass major policies in the Diet on its own, while ensuring a solid position for Prime Minister Abe Shinzō's administration.

Previously, the results of the most recent survey published by Kyodo news agency on October 17 predicted that the LDP could win 280 seats out of 465 seats in the House of Representatives and the coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Kometo Party would continue to maintain a majority with 2/3 of the seats in the House of Representatives.

It is still unclear whether Prime Minister Abe will win with an overwhelming majority of votes in this election or not, but in the final hours of the election campaign, Prime Minister Abe still actively emphasized the commitment: "We reaffirm that we will continue to protect the lives and happiness of all Japanese people."

Observers say that holding an early election is considered a wise move by Prime Minister Abe in the context that the main opposition Democratic Party is in internal turmoil and is not ready for the election due to many members leaving the ranks, while the newly formed coalition of Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike is still young.

However, this early election is still considered a "gamble" for Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzō, because it is not impossible that Prime Minister Abe could fall into the "mistake" of British Prime Minister Theresa May when deciding to hold an early election in the context of the Conservative Party's dominance, and then eventually receive "bitter fruit" when losing many seats in the National Assembly to his opponents.

And if the coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito fails to win a landslide victory, at least two-thirds of the seats in the lower house, Mr Abe could be ousted by his ruling party in a leadership election next year.

In addition, there is another notable factor, perhaps the famous Tokyo mayor, Ms. Yuriko Koike, entering the "war".

Currently, Ms. Koike is considered one of Prime Minister Abe's most formidable opponents in the race for the position of head of the Japanese Government in the next term.

According to some analysts, this election may be completely different from previous elections in the cherry blossom country, as it is predicted to be more dramatic and suspenseful, because this will also be a "test" of voters' support for domestic political parties./.

According to VOV