Russia's accusation that it shot down an II-20 plane is a "high-level" warning to Israel

Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov during the announcement of the investigation report into the Il-20 plane crash (RT)

Israel must certainly be worried and have calculations after this statement by Russia, because reality shows that Russia rarely forgives actions that violate Russia's interests and position.

Evidence against Israel

At a press conference in Moscow, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov firmly asserted that the fault for the downing of the Russian Il-20 reconnaissance plane in Syria “lies entirely with the Israeli Air Defense Forces.”

According to the Russian side, the Israeli aircraft deliberately created a dangerous situation by using the Russian aircraft as a shield against Syrian air defense systems. As a result, the Il-20 aircraft was mistakenly shot down by a missile fired by the Syrian S-200 air defense system, killing 15 Russian servicemen. Mr. Konashenkov accused the Israeli pilot of providing false information about the Israeli aircraft's attack location. This accusation was proven by the Russian side with specific details, according to which the Russian military received a call from the Israeli commander at 18:39 GMT on September 17 that Israel was attacking "northern Syria", where the Il-20 was monitoring the Idlib de-escalation zone. Immediately, the Il-20 aircraft was instructed to leave the mission area to the south and return to base. But just one minute after the Israeli call, Israeli F-16s attacked targets in Latakia, a city in western Syria.

Israel may pay the price for betraying Russia's trust in Syria

The Russian military's full blame of Israel for the Il-20 plane downing may make Putin tougher on Tel Aviv.

Russia accused the Israeli pilot of acting “the height of unprofessionalism or at least negligence” that prevented the Russian Il-20 from reaching a safe zone. Regarding Israel’s claim that its planes were returning to its airspace at the time of the Russian plane’s downing, Konashenkov made it clear that the F-16s left the area about 10 minutes after the plane was shot down.

Previously, Israel had tried to blame the lack of professionalism of the Syrian air defense force, saying that the Syrian air defense missile system had fired without “discriminating against targets.” But with the unfavorable evidence presented by Russia, Israel had almost no chance to justify itself in order to evade responsibility in this incident.

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In fact, even the US, when operating in Syrian airspace - where Russian aircraft are present - must be very cautious and regularly inform each other about combat plans. Meanwhile, Russia has issued 310 notifications about its activities in Syria compared to 25 notifications from Israel. Therefore, although this is the most serious case of accidental fire since Russia intervened militarily in this country at the request of President Bashar Al Assad in late 2015, and the party that fired the shots was Syria, Israel clearly understands that it is Israel that will have to bear the consequences if Russia takes retaliatory steps.

“Don't mess with the Russian bear”!

The Russian Defense Ministry simulated an Israeli aircraft (blue) approaching a Russian Il-20 aircraft (red) to avoid Syrian fire. Photo: RT

Immediately after the incident, an Israeli military delegation, led by Major General Amikam Norkin, Commander of the Israeli Air Force, arrived in Moscow to prevent a possible diplomatic crisis between the two countries. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also immediately offered to assist Russia in investigating the incident. Israel's soft response showed that the country really wanted to "appease" Russia, because Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had frankly warned his Israeli counterpart, Avigdor Liberman, that shooting down the Il-20 was an act that could not be ignored.

Israel has reason to be worried after becoming the "culprit" named by Russia. Up to this point, Russia's reaction is considered quite mild, stemming from the strategic calculation that Russia and Israel still need each other on the geopolitical chessboard of the Middle East as well as the pressure of the Jewish lobby, which has a large presence in Russia. But with the first step of conducting exercises in international waters in the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Israel and Syria that will last until tomorrow (September 26), Russia still wants to send a clear warning message to Israel.

According to the map warning of the exercise area, the Russian forces will apply a no-fly zone covering most of the Mediterranean Sea, including the Israeli coast, Russia wants to imply that it has the ability to block all Israeli air force activities in the area. Both Russia and Israel clearly understand that Israel has no motive to target Russian forces in Syria as well as Syrian government forces. The main target that Israel should be concerned about the situation on the Syrian battlefield is Iran and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah forces. But regardless of Israel's target, if Israel is not "reasonable", Russia can make it impossible for Israel to pursue its goals on the Syrian battlefield by establishing no-fly zones near Russia's Hmeymim and Tartous bases in Latakia province - the route that the Israeli air force must fly over if it wants to access the northern territories. Furthermore, Russia could also step up the delivery of advanced air defense systems such as the S-300 to Syria – an idea that Russia had previously discussed but postponed after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s discussions with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in May. If that happens, the Israeli air force will have a harder time operating even outside the no-fly zones established by Russia.

After Russia accused Israel of being responsible for the Il-20 downing, Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman made it clear that Israel would not stop its attacks in Syria because it was "necessary to ensure the security of Israeli citizens." However, in the interview, Mr. Lieberman avoided asserting Israel's "freedom of action" regarding Syria - a phrase he has used before. Like many other countries, Israel understands that Russia is now the "rule-maker" in Syria, so Israel has had to commit to strengthening the deconfliction mechanism with Russia to avoid similar clashes in the skies over Syria. Russia and Israel have maintained a relatively good relationship despite the instability in the Middle East. Given the current situation on the Syrian battlefield, Israel would be the party that would suffer more if this relationship were broken.

The story of the shooting down of the Russian Il-20 plane recalls the incident nearly 3 years ago, when Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24 plane that was also operating in the Syrian battlefield. Russia's response at that time forced Turkish President Tayip Erdogan to "give in" and apologize many times to save the relationship with Russia. Israel's actions now are the same, because perhaps both Israel and Türkiye understand that, with Russia's current strength, with the influence that Russia has established in Syria in particular and the Middle East in general, it is best not to "play with the Russian bear"!