Russia's accusation that it shot down an Il-20 plane is a "high-level" warning to Israel

Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov during the announcement of the investigation report on the Il-20 plane crash (RT)

Israel must certainly be worried and calculating after this statement by Russia, because reality shows that Russia rarely forgives actions that violate Russia's interests and position.

Evidence against Israel

At a press conference in Moscow, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov firmly asserted that the fault for the downing of the Russian Il-20 reconnaissance plane in Syria “lies entirely with the Israeli Air Defense Forces.”

According to the Russian side, the Israeli aircraft deliberately created a dangerous situation by using the Russian aircraft as a shield against Syrian air defense systems. As a result, the Il-20 aircraft was mistakenly shot down by a missile fired by the Syrian S-200 air defense system, killing 15 Russian servicemen. Mr. Konashenkov accused the Israeli pilot of providing false information about the location of the Israeli aircraft's attack. This accusation was supported by the Russian side with specific details, according to which the Russian military received a call from the Israeli commander at 18:39 GMT on September 17 that Israel was attacking "northern Syria", where the Il-20 was monitoring the Idlib de-escalation zone. Immediately, the Il-20 aircraft was instructed to leave the mission area to the south and return to base. But just one minute after the Israeli call, Israeli F-16s attacked targets in Latakia, a city in western Syria.

Israel may pay the price for betraying Russia's trust in Syria

The Russian military's full blame for the Il-20 plane downing on Israel may make Putin tougher on Tel Aviv.

Russia accused the Israeli pilots of “the height of unprofessionalism or at least negligence” that prevented the Russian Il-20 from reaching a safe zone. Regarding Israel’s claim that its planes were back in its airspace at the time of the Russian plane’s downing, Konashenkov made it clear that the F-16s left the area about 10 minutes after the plane was shot down.

Previously, Israel tried to blame the lack of professionalism of the Syrian air defense force, saying that the Syrian air defense missile system fired without “discriminating against targets”. But with the unfavorable evidence presented by Russia, Israel has almost no chance to justify itself in order to evade responsibility in this incident.

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In fact, even the US, when operating in Syrian airspace - where Russian aircraft are present - must be very cautious and regularly inform each other about their combat plans. Meanwhile, Russia has issued 310 notifications about its activities in Syria compared to 25 notifications from Israel. Therefore, although this is the most serious case of accidental fire since Russia intervened militarily in the country at the request of President Bashar Al Assad in late 2015, and the party that fired the shots was Syria, Israel clearly understands that it is Israel that will have to bear the consequences if Russia takes retaliatory steps.

“Don't mess with the Russian bear”!

The Russian Defense Ministry simulated an Israeli aircraft (blue) approaching a Russian Il-20 aircraft (red) to avoid Syrian fire. Photo: RT

Immediately after the incident, an Israeli military delegation, led by Major General Amikam Norkin, Commander of the Israeli Air Force, arrived in Moscow to prevent a possible diplomatic crisis between the two countries. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also immediately offered to assist Russia in investigating the incident. Israel's soft response showed that it really wanted to "appease" Russia, because Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had frankly warned his Israeli counterpart Avigdor Liberman that the shooting down of the Il-20 was an act that could not be ignored.

Israel has reason to be worried after becoming the “culprit” that Russia has named. Up to this point, Russia’s reaction is considered quite mild, stemming from the strategic calculation that Russia and Israel still need each other on the geopolitical chessboard of the Middle East as well as pressure from the Jewish lobby, which has a large presence in Russia. But with the first step of conducting exercises in international waters in the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Israel and Syria that will last until tomorrow (September 26), Russia still wants to send a clear warning message to Israel.

According to the map warning of the exercise area, the Russian forces will apply a no-fly zone covering a large part of the Mediterranean Sea, including the Israeli coast, Russia wants to imply that it has the ability to block all Israeli air force activities in the area. Both Russia and Israel clearly understand that Israel has no motive to target Russian forces in Syria, nor Syrian government forces. The main target that Israel should be concerned about in the Syrian battlefield is Iran and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah forces. But regardless of Israel's targets, if Israel is not "reasonable", Russia can make it impossible for Israel to pursue its goals in the Syrian battlefield by establishing no-fly zones near the Russian bases of Hmeymim and Tartous in Latakia province - the route that the Israeli air force must fly over if it wants to access the northern territories. Furthermore, Russia could step up the delivery of advanced air defense missile systems such as the S-300 to Syria—an idea that Russia had previously raised but put on hold after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s discussions with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in May. If that happens, the Israeli air force would have a harder time operating even outside the no-fly zones that Russia has established.

After Russia accused Israel of being responsible for the Il-20 downing, Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman made it clear that Israel would not stop its attacks in Syria because it was "necessary to ensure the security of Israeli citizens." However, in the interview, Lieberman avoided asserting Israel's "freedom of action" in Syria - a phrase he has used in the past. Like many other countries, Israel understands that Russia is now the "rule-maker" in Syria, so Israel has committed to strengthening its deconfliction mechanism with Russia to avoid similar clashes in the skies over Syria. Russia and Israel have maintained a relatively good relationship despite the turmoil in the Middle East. Given the current situation on the Syrian battlefield, Israel would be the one to suffer more if this relationship were to break down.

The story of the downing of the Russian Il-20 plane recalls the incident nearly 3 years ago, when Türkiye shot down a Russian Su-24 plane that was also operating in the Syrian battlefield. Russia's response at that time forced Turkish President Tayip Erdogan to "give in" and apologize many times to save the relationship with Russia. Israel's actions now are the same, because perhaps both Israel and Türkiye understand that, with Russia's current strength, with the influence that Russia has established in Syria in particular and the Middle East in general, it is best not to "play with the Russian bear"!