Theories about the series of mysterious explosions at the Russian base on the Crimean peninsula

The veil of mystery

On August 9, 2022, the Saki air base (of the Russian Navy) in the Novofedorivka region of the Crimean peninsula was rocked by a series of consecutive explosions. Many photos and videos from local residents showed the series of explosions. Satellite images also recorded changes at the base before and after the incident.

The British Ministry of Defence said on August 12 that "the cause of the explosions remains unclear but the huge clouds of smoke seen in witness videos were almost certainly caused by four unprotected ammunition storage sites exploding".

Smoke rises after large explosions at the Saki military base near residential areas on the Russian-controlled Crimea peninsula. Photo: Reuters

A British military intelligence report on August 12 confirmed that at least five Russian attack aircraft and three multi-role fighter jets were "completely destroyed or seriously damaged" in a series of explosions at Saki.

Satellite images from Planet Labs show at least eight military aircraft destroyed or damaged after a series of explosions at Saki airport on August 9.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington, DC (USA) said on August 10 that the cause of the explosions has not yet been determined. The institute said that the damage could be caused by many factors such as special forces, missiles, militias, guerrillas, on the spot or from afar.

Information from the Russian side itself seems to be inconsistent in explaining the cause of the series of explosions.

Regarding personnel, an advisor to the Ukrainian Interior Minister said that there are up to60 Russian pilots and technicians were killed and 100 others were injured in this series of explosions. Meanwhile, the Russian side, including the Crimean Ministry of Health, confirmed 1 death and more than 10 people were injured.

Russia uses the Saki air base to launch airstrikes against southern Ukraine. Crimea serves as a springboard for the Russian military in its “special military operation” against Ukraine. The Saki airfield provides significant support for Russian naval operations in the Black Sea. If the reports of major Russian losses at Saki are true, the Russian Navy’s aviation capabilities have been significantly reduced.

Hypotheses about the cause of the explosion

1- Artillery with HIMARS

Ukraine attacked with the HIMARS, a high-precision rocket artillery provided by the US. The Saki base is 200km from the front line, but the HIMARS has a range of 300km.

If HIMARS was used in this incident, the Russian S-400 air defense system seems to have had little effect there.

2- Attack with ballistic or cruise missiles, or launch smart bombs from UAVs

Some experts believe that Ukraine used short-range ballistic missiles or cruise missiles to attack the Saki base. The use of UAVs is also a possibility that cannot be ruled out. UAVs are capable of quietly approaching targets and dropping bombs on them accurately. During the Russia-Ukraine war, Ukraine used quite a lot of armed UAVs, often provided by Türkiye, especially in the early stages.

However, another Russian military blogger named Rybar said that the series of explosions at the Saki base was unlikely to be caused by a missile.

Rybar noted that tourists and residents of Novofedorivka (where the Saki base is located) did not observe any incoming missiles. Numerous videos from the scene also showed nothing resembling an incoming missile.

When reviewing photos of the base at the time of the incident, US CNN also did not detect any rockets flying towards it.

As for UAVs, after an initial period of confusion, the Russian army has organized well electronic warfare and air defense operations to counter the enemy's killer UAVs.

3- Attack by special forces or local guerrilla militia

This is also a scenario that some observers have put forward. In this situation, Ukrainian special forces would have to conduct a thorough investigation, secretly infiltrate the base and then plant explosives in both the ammunition depot and each aircraft.

Ukrainian special forces have been trained and equipped by US special forces and British Army special forces for behind enemy lines and are believed to have carried out several successful attacks in Russian-held territory.

Another Russian blogger, Yuri Podolyak, said on August 11 that the incident on August 9 was a terrorist attack. He also criticized the security measures at the air base. Podolyak said there was negligence on the part of the unit's command.

4- Helicopter attack

Blogger Rybar suggested that a helicopter could have dropped a small bomb that detonated an ammunition depot, triggering a chain of explosions on the airport. There is no evidence of this scenario, but it is a fact that Ukrainian military helicopters have infiltrated behind enemy lines.

5- Violations of fire safety and ammunition storage

This was the explanation given by the Russian Ministry of Defense from the very beginning.

Hidden messages from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and President Zelensky

After the series of explosions at Saki airport, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry acknowledged the explosions but did not explain how they occurred, nor did it declare any Ukrainian involvement in the explosions.

Thus, unlike other cases, Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for any “attack” in Saki, perhaps because they are fully aware of the possibility of a large-scale Russian counterattack, even targeting the capital Kiev, if they openly attack Crimea. After annexing Crimea in 2014, Russia vowed to defend the place to the end and would take especially strong measures against any party that dared to attack Crimea.

Immediately after the August 9 explosions, it was noteworthy that Ukrainian President Zelensky reprimanded his country’s officials for boasting and revealing details of attacks carried out by the Ukrainian army. Here, the Ukrainian leader did not specifically mention the Saki base.

President Zelensky said:"War is definitely not the time for boasting or big talk. The less you reveal specific details about our defense plans, the better it will be for their implementation."./.