Scientists predict new SARS-CoV-2 virus variant

The Covid-19 pandemic has had no shortage of twists and turns since it began nearly two years ago. Big advances in prevention and treatment can be dramatically impacted by a single change that causesSARS-CoV-2 virusbecome more contagious, more virulent, or both.

The number of cases and the level of concern about vaccine effectiveness depend on how the pathogen adapts and changes over time. Could SARS-CoV-2 get worse?

The next virus variant could be different, but not more dangerous or deadly than the current one, experts say.

Since the early days of the pandemic, virologists and pathologists have known that all viruses change and mutate over time as they circulate in a population. But according to Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease physician and professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco, viruses are more likely to become contagious over time than they are deadly.

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“Viruses want to have more copies of themselves,” Dr. Gandhi explains. “They don’t usually evolve to kill their hosts more easily.”

Similar to animals, the evolution of microscopic pathogens tends to favor young ones that can reproduce and spread easily.

"More fit variants will likely emerge over time. These variants need to be closely monitored because they pose a public health threat. However, we believe that the variant will persist indefinitely. Eventually, the virus will reach its peak infectivity," a group of scientists wrote in the journal Nature.

“After that, the new variants will no longer have any advantage in terms of transmissibility. The virus will gradually stabilize and this ‘final’ variant will become dominant, becoming the dominant strain, undergoing minimal changes from time to time.”

Dr. Gandhi also noted that a subtype of the Delta variant, AY.4.2, has attracted the attention of health officials because it may be more transmissible. Fortunately, most studies so far have found AY.4.2 to be less of a threat than the original Delta variant.

“AY.4.2 appears to have a 12 to 18 percent transmission advantage over Delta,” said Dr. Christina Pagel, director of the Clinical Operations Research Unit at University College London. “That would make things a little more difficult, but it’s not a huge leap.”

AY.4.2 may be less of a concern, despite its ability to spread faster, the expert said. "Delta spreads about 60% faster than Alpha. So AY.4.2 is not as big a disaster as Delta. This variant will probably gradually replace Delta in the next few months. But there is no indication that it is more resistant to vaccines. At this time, I would not worry about that variant," Dr. Pagel expressed his opinion.