Scientists predict new SARS-CoV-2 virus variant
New variants will continue to emerge, but they will not be as deadly as they are now.
The Covid-19 pandemic has had no shortage of twists and turns since it began nearly two years ago. Big advances in prevention and treatment could be dramatically impacted by a single change thatSARS-CoV-2 virusbecome more contagious, more virulent, or both.
The number of cases and the level of concern about vaccine effectiveness depend on how the pathogen adapts and changes over time. Could the SARS-CoV-2 virus get worse?
The next virus variant could be different, but not more dangerous or deadly than the current one, experts say.
Since the earliest days of the pandemic, virologists and pathologists have said that all viruses change and mutate over time as they circulate in a population. But according to Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease physician and professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco, viruses are more likely to become contagious over time than they are deadly.
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“Viruses want to have more copies of themselves,” Dr. Gandhi explains. “They don’t usually evolve to kill their hosts more easily.”
Similar to animals, the evolution of microscopic pathogens tends to favor young ones that can reproduce and spread easily.
"More fit variants will likely emerge over time. These variants need to be closely monitored because they pose a public health threat. However, we believe that the variant will persist indefinitely. Eventually, the virus will reach its peak infectivity," a group of scientists wrote in a report to the journal Nature.
“After that, the new variants will no longer have any advantage in terms of transmissibility. The virus will gradually stabilize and this ‘final’ variant will become dominant, becoming the dominant strain, undergoing minimal changes from time to time.”
Dr. Gandhi also noted that a sub-lineage of the Delta variant, AY.4.2, is drawing attention from health officials because it may be more transmissible. Fortunately, most studies so far have found AY.4.2 to be less of a threat than the original Delta variant.
“AY.4.2 appears to have a 12 to 18 percent advantage in transmission over Delta. This will make things a little more difficult, but it’s not a huge leap,” said Dr. Christina Pagel, Director of the Clinical Operational Research Unit at University College London.
The expert said that AY.4.2 may be less of a concern despite its ability to spread faster. "Delta spreads about 60% faster than Alpha. So AY.4.2 is not as big a disaster as Delta. This variant will probably gradually replace Delta in the next few months. But there is no indication that it is more resistant to vaccines. At this time, I would not worry about that variant," Dr. Pagel expressed his opinion.
