The balance of power in East Asia is unfavorable to China.

(Baonghean) - To have an overview of the situation in East Asia in the first two months of 2016 and forecast the next developments in the coming time, Nghe An Newspaper interviewed Associate Professor, Doctor, Major General Le Van Cuong - Former Director of the Institute of Strategy and Science, Ministry of Public Security.

PV: Major General, can you summarize the situation in East Asia in the first two months of 2016?

Major General Le Van Cuong:In early January 2016, North Korea announced that it had successfully tested an H-bomb. This event still raises many questions but has created a strong reaction in the world. A month later, Pyongyang tested a ballistic missile under the name of putting a satellite into orbit, with a speed of up to nearly 10 km/s, meaning that the country could potentially send missiles to the Far West and strategic US bases in the Pacific. Four UN Security Council resolutions requiring Pyongyang not to develop nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles were seriously violated.

North Korea's ballistic missile launch disguised as a satellite into orbit has inadvertently put China at a disadvantage. Illustration photo: Reuters/KCNA.

In mid-February 2016, China installed two batteries with eight HQ-9 surface-to-air missile launchers on Phu Lam Island (part of Vietnam's Hoang Sa archipelago) and deployed a high-frequency radar system for military purposes on the reefs it illegally occupied from Vietnam. In particular, China placed a radar mast up to 20 meters high on Chau Vien Reef with the intention of detecting and providing early warning to all aircraft and ships passing through the Strait of Malacca and from southern Singapore into the East Sea.

China's actions are essentially aimed at militarizing the East Sea, violating international law, putting the East Sea in an extremely complicated situation, threatening the security and safety of aviation and navigation through this sea area. The East Sea is one of the five most important shipping routes in the world, so Beijing's illegal actions have caused a strong wave of reactions in the world, attracting the attention of the international community.

PV: Can you tell us what is the motive behind China's illegal deployment of surface-to-air missile systems and radar installations at the present time?

Major General Le Van Cuong:First of all, it must be said that deploying missiles on Phu Lam Island and installing radar on Chau Vien Reef are actions within the “anti-access” strategy that China launched in 2005, through all measures, mainly building military bases for air force, missiles, navy, radar, etc. to form a military complex from Hainan Island to Phu Lam (Hoang Sa), Truong Sa of Vietnam and other islands, monitoring and early warning all foreign aircraft and ships (mainly American) entering the East Sea. Thus, China’s recent actions are essentially the next steps in its long-term calculations towards its plot to control and monopolize the East Sea.

Second, it must be noted that Beijing's actions are all part of a unified plan and strategy, but the timing of implementation is always carefully calculated by China. On February 16, US President Barack Obama held a special meeting with 10 ASEAN member countries in California and issued a joint statement including 17 principles to ensure security and safety of aviation and navigation in the East Sea.

The US-ASEAN Joint Statement is a historic document, agreeing for the first time on the threats to the South China Sea and calling on the parties concerned to resolve disputes by peaceful means, without using force, without changing the status quo. In that context, China’s deployment of missiles and radars is likely to “warn” ASEAN not to cooperate with the US to contain China and indirectly “threaten” Washington not to interfere in the South China Sea.

Besides, there are other reasons why Beijing chose to be aggressive in the East Sea in the context of other world powers having other concerns, when Russia and the US are focusing on Syria with two consecutive ceasefire agreements, when the US is focusing on the final stage of the presidential race, when Europe is struggling to deal with immigrants and the scenario of Britain leaving the Union (Brexit),... Looking deeply, it must be seen that China's foreign policy is always linked to its domestic policy. Every time there is a complicated problem at home, Beijing chooses to "cause trouble" with its neighbors to distract people's attention and reduce domestic tension.

For nearly a year now, China has faced many urgent challenges in both the economic and socio-political fields: the economy has fallen into recession, the stock market has fluctuated many times, investors have lost confidence, Xi Jinping's anti-corruption policy has proven effective and popular but has "touched" the interests of many state-owned corporations, etc. They have implemented recent actions most likely to divert the attention of the people in the country, temporarily forgetting the unresolved internal problems.

PV: Why did the US and countries in the region react so strongly to the actions of North Korea and China, Major General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:As for North Korea, because this country has violated 4 Resolutions of the Security Council, in terms of international law, they will certainly be condemned by the international community. As for China, the action of deploying HQ-9 missiles and installing high-frequency radar has met with fierce opposition from the US, Japan and many other countries for 2 reasons. First, peaceful development is the inevitable and dominant trend today, but China is causing trouble and militarizing the sea area where 1/3 of the world's goods circulate, touching the interests of many countries, so the wave of reaction to Beijing's aggressive actions is understandable. Second, the world sees that there is often a mismatch between China's words and actual actions.

PV: According to Major General, what consequences will the events just analyzed have for North Korea, China in particular and the world in general?

Major General Le Van Cuong:The most obvious consequence of North Korea's H-bomb test and satellite launch is the hotter-than-ever atmosphere in Northeast Asia in the first two months of this year. While humanity has not yet breathed a sigh of relief at the positive changes in Syria, in East Asia there is a potential risk of other concerns erupting. Obviously, North Korea's actions, combined with China's recent actions, have destabilized and complicated the situation in East Asia, making the busiest air and sea routes in the world unsafe. That is the reason why most experts believe that the hottest spot in the world in the first two months of 2016 is East Asia.

The initial consequences for the world are worrying, but I believe the direct consequences for Pyongyang and Beijing are much greater. North Korea's actions of launching missiles and testing hydrogen bombs have inadvertently brought the US closer to South Korea and Japan, creating a pincer movement hanging over Pyongyang. Therefore, in my opinion, this is North Korea's biggest mistake.

The US-ASEAN statement issued in mid-February called on relevant parties to resolve disputes in the East Sea by peaceful means, without using force, and without changing the status quo. Photo: Internet.

Washington’s response has been to gradually add more weapons and equipment to the region, and most recently, reach an agreement with Seoul on the establishment of a missile defense system, directly threatening Pyongyang and indirectly threatening Beijing. While China is doing everything it can to break the US-Japan-South Korea triangle, North Korea “inadvertently” helps to further strengthen this alliance, in fact increasing the threat to China. In other words, the balance of power in East Asia is tilted towards the US-Japan-South Korea trio, which is an irreparable loss for China.

Meanwhile, for its part, although not saying it, in the past two decades China has advocated gradually pushing the “thorn” of the US out of the West Pacific - East Asia. President Obama’s “pivot” to Asia policy since 2011 has also made China dissatisfied, and it has reacted by all means. However, China’s militarization moves have further “held” the US back, forcing the US to cooperate more closely with regional powers such as Australia, Japan, India, etc.

PV: What is your assessment and forecast of the situation in East Asia in the coming time? What should the international community do?

Major General Le Van Cuong:According to Chinese politicians, 2016 is the most favorable year for them to complete the illegal militarization of the East Sea, taking advantage of the Obama administration's busyness with other concerns to complete the military airport, bring fighter jets, strategic bombers, submarines, warships, etc. to Vietnam's Truong Sa archipelago. It is also possible that China will install more long-range anti-ship missiles, deploy ballistic missiles to the islands and rocks that China illegally occupied from Vietnam. In my opinion, by the end of this year, China will concentrate all its forces to militarize the East Sea, moving towards controlling the area with "Chinese-style laws", forcing passing planes and ships to "ask permission" from this country. The situation in the East Sea will become more tense and urgent than ever.

However, the reality is that if China's actions exceed a certain limit and are met with a wave of boycotts from the world, the Chinese economy will certainly collapse, leading to many unpredictable consequences. In the current context, the most important thing is that the international community must fully recognize China's deep intentions and together speak out strongly against its illegal actions to maintain the trend of peace, stability, cooperation and development in the East Asia region in particular and the world in general.

PV: Thank you, Major General.

Thu Giang