The 'gamble' of the iron lady

(Baonghean) - In a rather surprising move, British Prime Minister Theresa May on April 18 called for a general election on June 8 - 3 and a half years earlier than planned.

If the general election results as Theresa May expects, it will give her greater legitimacy in the difficult negotiations with the European Union on the process of Britain leaving the bloc (Brexit), while also solving the internal problems of the Conservative Party. However, the upcoming general election is also like a gamble that Theresa May is not sure of winning.

"The wind changes direction"

Since Theresa May took over as British Prime Minister from David Cameron, one big question has been hanging over 10 Downing Street: whether there will be an early general election.

However, Theresa May has always rejected any plans for an early general election, saying that this will not take place until the UK completes negotiations with the European Union (EU) on taking the UK out of the bloc (Brexit).

Therefore, Mrs. May's call on April 18 was quite a surprising move, even Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon called it "the most unusual reversal in modern British political history"!

Speaking to the press after this important event, Theresa May revealed that her decision was made during a recent weekend walk in Wales, and it was quickly approved by cabinet members.

Theresa May calls for an early general election outside No. 10, Downing Street. Photo: Reuters

A day later, Theresa May announced a bill paving the way for an early election, urging all parties to pass it. Before 2010, the British Prime Minister only needed the Queen's approval to hold an early election.

But in 2010, then British Prime Minister David Cameron introduced a new law stipulating that the term of Parliament must last a full five years and that if he wanted to hold an early election, the British Prime Minister must have the approval of two-thirds of the MPs.

Although Theresa May's Conservative Party currently holds only a narrow majority in Parliament, the support of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has been crucial in bringing the plan to fruition.

Two birds with one stone

In her speech at 10 Downing Street, Theresa May explained that an early general election was necessary to ensure strong and stable leadership of the government, to overcome the Brexit negotiations and to develop the country in the post-Brexit period.

The Brexit journey that the UK is preparing to undertake starting at the end of May is predicted to contain many diverse and complex risks, stemming from internal divisions.

This has been evident in recent weeks, with the opposition Labour Party announcing it would vote against the final deal the UK has reached with the European Union, the Liberal Democrats moving to block the government's progress, and the Scottish National Party also declaring its opposition to any legal process to revoke the UK's EU membership.

Therefore, Mrs. Theresa May was quite determined when she said: "If we do not hold a general election now, the parties will not stop their "political games". In the context of the British Parliament being very divided, Mrs. Theresa May wants to increase her own power through higher legitimacy.

Previously, she became the British Prime Minister by being elected by the Conservative Party to replace Mr. David Cameron. Therefore, she was accused of coming to power through the “back door” without the mandate of the voters, weakening Mrs. May’s position in negotiating with the EU on Brexit.

Through this general election, she wants to become an elected Prime Minister. Therefore, she appealed: "Every vote for the Conservative Party will make me stronger in the Brexit negotiations".

Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron - who is trying to win seats from the Conservatives. Photo: PA

In addition to giving Theresa May a leg up in Brexit negotiations, an early general election would also help her resolve internal problems within the Conservative Party. Currently, May’s Conservative Party only has a narrow majority in Parliament.

With polls showing support for the opposition Labour Party at an all-time low, this is an opportunity for Mrs May to win an overwhelming majority for the Conservative Party in Parliament.

Furthermore, as the scandal over the Conservative Party’s opaque election expenses in the 2015 general election has begun to emerge in the media, an early general election that is elevated to the level of “critical to the future of the country” would relegate the scandal to the level of “not worth mentioning”.

Risky gamble

Observers believe that the Conservative Party has many advantages and will win the upcoming general election. However, after the US election last November, upcoming elections in Europe – most recently in France – are considered very difficult to predict.

Therefore, Theresa May’s decision to hold an early general election also carries many risks like a “gamble”. Going back a year, May’s taking over as British Prime Minister also stemmed from a “gamble” that former Prime Minister David Cameron always thought he had a “chance” of winning – the “gamble” that paved the way for Britain to leave the European Union.

In addition to the element of surprise, the upcoming general election has also rekindled the deep divisions in the UK that existed nearly a year ago. While Theresa May has shown her willingness to accept a “hard” Brexit scenario with the saying “no deal is better than a bad deal”, those who opposed leaving the EU always wanted to seek a soft deal, meaning keeping the UK in the European single market.

And the June general election will be an opportunity for these supporters to make their voices heard. Tim Farron, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, which holds nine seats in the House of Commons, said shortly after May’s call: “This election is a chance for Britain to change course.

If we want to avoid a hard Brexit, if we want to keep ourselves in the European single market, if we want Britain to remain open, integrated and united, this is the opportunity. Only the Liberal Democrats can stop the Tories from winning a majority in Parliament.”

A betting company employee posts odds for parties in the early general election outside Parliament House.

Thus, although it is considered brave, wise and timely, it does not mean that Prime Minister Theresa May's move does not contain risks.

If the Conservative Party does not win by a landslide as she expected, Theresa May will have to suffer a series of "backfire effects", from her personal reputation to decline, the leadership role of the Conservative Party to be shaken, and in the immediate future, the lack of certainty in the difficult negotiations with the European Union.

Thuy Ngoc