The Italian leader's 'gamble'

Back to move forward?

According to Reuters news agency, Mr. Conte's office revealed to the media on the night of January 25 that Mr. Giuseppe Conte had planned to hold a cabinet meeting on the morning of January 26 to inform ministers about his important decision, that he had "a wish to go to the Quirinale (Presidential Palace) tosubmit resignation”. Mr. Conte then travels to the residence to meet President Sergio Mattarella, the acting head of state, who could accept the resignation, and then likely ask the embattled Prime Minister whether he can assemble a stronger coalition that would ensure he commands a more credible majority in Congress.

The intention speculated by the press has also been confirmed by high-ranking sources in the current government, that the Prime Minister in office since June 2018 is hoping that President Mattarella will give him the authority to form a new government, gaining stronger support within the National Assembly.

Mr. Conte is said to be looking to build a new ruling coalition. Photo: IPA

Looking back at Italian politics in recent days, according to the AP news agency, although Mr. Conte did indeed pass two confidence votes in the National Assembly last week, it is worrying that he himself also lost his majority in the Senate, because the centrist Italia Viva party under the leadership of former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi decided to withdraw from the ruling coalition. The reason for the allies' "turning away" was determined to be due to the controversy surrounding the government's handling of the Covid-19 crisis and the economic recession that is besieging the boot-shaped country.

However, some opinions say that, faced with that reality, Mr. Conte still does not want to resign because he is worried that he may not be reappointed. Therefore, he has tried to attract moderate and independent senators who are wavering to his side through vague promises of a new government pact and possible positions in the cabinet; but has not achieved the expected success. Even legislators from the Democratic Party (PD) have declared that he needs to resign and open formal negotiations to have time to form a new coalition. The result of the political disputes is that the effectiveness of the Italian government is hindered, difficulties pile up on difficulties, crisis after crisis. And the "shrinking" majority also puts Mr. Conte at risk of being defeated in the vote scheduled to be held this weekend in the Senate. Considering the scenarios, perhaps resigning is the "brightest" option for Prime Minister Conte at this time.

Italy has had 66 governments since World War II, often dissolved and then reassembled in tortuous, backroom negotiations that paved the way for cabinet reshuffles or policy reviews.

What Italy needs

President Mattarella has repeatedly stressed the urgent need for Italy to have strong leadership, especially as the country struggles withCovid-19 pandemic, the medical tragedy has left terrible “scars” on their long-stagnant economy.

Covid-19 has made the Italian economy even more difficult. Photo: File

Therefore, it is not impossible that, after consulting with the leaders of the government and the opposition parties, instead of reappointing Mr. Conte, the head of state may decide to choose another person who is considered to have a higher chance of forming a more solid government. In case no one can create a viable, reliable coalition, Mr. Mattarella still has the option of dissolving the National Assembly, paving the way for elections to take place 2 years earlier than expected.

Mr Conte has been at the helm of a contentious centre-left coalition for 16 months. Before that, for 15 months, he headed a government that also included the largest party in parliament, the populist 5-Star Movement, but in alliance with Matteo Salvini’s right-wing League party. That first government collapsed when Mr Salvini withdrew his support after his failed bid for the premiership. Although often linked to the 5-Star Movement, Mr Conte does not actually lead any party. So if he leaves Italy’s perpetual political crisis, he will no longer be part of the formal consultations with President Mattarella, when he meets party leaders who take turns at the presidential palace.

Before Conte’s office announced his resignation, former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s centrist opposition party expressed its support for any new government, saying it believed Mattarella’s “political astuteness” would help find a way out of the crisis. “There is only one highway,” Berlusconi said in a statement. “The solution is a new government that represents the real unity of the country in a time of crisis,” or perhaps a new election “to give the final say to the Italian electorate.”

A session of the Italian Parliament. Photo: CNN

By the end of February, the Italian government must notify the European Union of its intention to allocate about 200 billion euros ($250 billion) from the recovery fund, focusing on reforming the country's health system and other institutions. One of Renzi's sticking points with Conte is that he believes too much power is placed in the prime minister's hands when it comes to these financial programs. As for Salvini, he said he has called a meeting of center-right leaders, including far-right leader Giorgia Meloni, and Berlusconi's party, to push the opposition to press for elections.

Meanwhile, the leader of the main coalition partner - the Democratic Party - has voiced support for giving new powers to Mr. Conte, arguing that the new government will be "pro-European and have strong support in parliament, ensuring credibility and stability to face the challenges that Italy is about to face." But according to analysts, the support from Conte's own coalition for this leader is unstable, even easily changing quickly. This school of thought argues that a new coalition government, whether under the leadership of Conte or another prime minister, is still the most feasible scenario; but it is important to realize that Italy will still be led by a leader who is not suitable for the difficult task ahead, potentially risking a repeat of the 2018 election./.