The Italian leader's gamble.

Retreat to advance?

According to Reuters, Conte's office revealed to the media on the night of January 25th that Giuseppe Conte planned to hold a cabinet meeting on the morning of January 26th to inform ministers of his momentous decision: that he "wish to go to the Quirinale (Presidential Palace) to..."submits resignation letter"Then, Mr. Conte moved to the aforementioned residence to meet with President Sergio Mattarella, the head of state who might accept the resignation and then potentially question the struggling Prime Minister about whether he could assemble a stronger coalition and secure a more credible majority in Parliament."

The intention speculated by the press has also been confirmed by high-ranking sources within the current government: the prime minister, who has been in office since June 2018, is hoping that President Mattarella will grant him the authority to form a new government with stronger support within Parliament.

Conte is reportedly seeking to build a new governing coalition. Photo: IPA

Looking back at Italian politics in recent days, according to the Associated Press, although Conte did indeed win two confidence votes in Parliament last week, it is concerning that he also lost his majority in the Senate, as the centrist Italian party Viva, led by former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, decided to withdraw from the ruling coalition. The reason for the alliance's "turning their backs" is attributed to the controversy surrounding the government's handling of the Covid-19 crisis and the economic recession engulfing the country.

However, some believe that, despite this reality, Conte is reluctant to resign, fearing he might not be reappointed. Therefore, he has tried to win over wavering centrist and independent senators with vague promises of a new government treaty and possible cabinet positions; but with little success. Even lawmakers from the Democratic Party (PD) have declared he needs to resign and open formal negotiations to allow time to form a new coalition. The consequence of these political infighting is that the effectiveness of the Italian government is hampered, difficulties are piling up, and crises are following one another. The shrinking majority also puts Conte at risk of defeat in the vote scheduled for this weekend in the Senate. Considering the scenarios, perhaps resignation is the best option for Prime Minister Conte at this moment.

Since World War II, Italy has experienced 66 governments. These governments are often dissolved and then reassembled through convoluted, behind-the-scenes negotiations, paving the way for cabinet reshuffles or policy reviews.

What Italy needs

President Mattarella has repeatedly emphasized the urgent need for strong leadership in Italy, especially as the country grapples with...Covid-19 pandemicThe medical tragedy has left and continues to leave terrible "scars" on their already stagnant economy.

Covid-19 has made things even more difficult for the Italian economy. (Photo: Archival image)

Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that, after consulting with government leaders and opposition parties, instead of reappointing Conte, the head of state may decide to choose someone else, considered to have a higher chance of forming a more stable government. And if no one can form a viable, credible coalition, Mattarella still has the option of dissolving Parliament, paving the way for an election two years earlier than planned.

Mr. Conte led a contentious center-left coalition for 16 months. Prior to that, for 15 months, he headed a government that also included the largest party in Parliament – ​​the populist Five Star Movement – ​​but in a coalition with the right-wing League of Matteo Salvini. This first government collapsed when Salvini withdrew his support after his defeat in the bid for the chancellorship. Although often associated with the Five Star Movement, Mr. Conte actually does not lead any political party. Therefore, if he were to emerge from Italy's frequent political crises, Mr. Conte would no longer be part of the formal consultations with President Mattarella, who alternately meets with party leaders at the presidential palace for dialogue.

Before Prime Minister Conte's office issued a statement regarding the possibility of his resignation, the centrist opposition party of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi had expressed support for any new government, asserting that he believed Mattarella's "political acumen" would help find a way out of the crisis. In a statement, Berlusconi said: "There is only one highway. That solution is a new government that represents the genuine unity of the country in this moment of crisis," or perhaps a new election "to give the decisive voice back to the Italian voters."

A session of the Italian Parliament. Photo: CNN

By the end of February, the Italian government must inform the European Union of its intention to allocate approximately 200 billion euros (equivalent to 250 billion USD) from the recovery fund, focusing on reforming the country's healthcare systems and other institutions. One of Renzi's points of contention with Conte is that he believes too much decision-making power is placed in the hands of the prime minister when it comes to these financial programs. As for Salvini, he stated that he has called for a meeting of center-right leaders, including far-right leader Giorgia Meloni and Berlusconi's party, to encourage the opposition to pressure for elections.

Meanwhile, the leader of the main coalition partner – the Democratic Party – has voiced support for granting Conte new authority, arguing that the new government would be “pro-European and have strong support in parliament, ensuring credibility and stability to face the challenges ahead for Italy.” However, analysts believe that support from Conte's own coalition is inconsistent and even prone to rapid change. This viewpoint argues that a new coalition government, whether led by Conte or another prime minister, remains the most likely scenario; but it is crucial to recognize that Italy would still be led by an unsuitable leader for the difficult task ahead, potentially repeating the scenario of the 2018 election.