Trump's investment "gamble" in North Korea

US President Donald Trump might want to tell the following story: If you go to the bank and borrow $3 million, if you can't pay it back, you're in trouble. But if you go to the bank and borrow $300 million, if you can't pay it back, then both you and the bank are in trouble.

In other words, the bank has invested a large sum in you and cannot afford to let you default. Your success becomes the bank's success.

US President Donald Trump is also making similar investments in North Korea.

That investment, however, is not monetary. Instead, Mr. Trump is investing huge political capital in North Korea.

He ignored the advice of the entire US foreign policy establishment to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore, betting that the North Korean leader was genuinely ready to denuclearize.

The recent easing of tensions between the US and North Korea is Mr Trump's only diplomatic success. Photo: AP

Now, because of this huge investment, Mr. Trump does not want his new initiative with North Korea to collapse. Because if that happens, it will not only be North Korea's problem, but also the problem of the American leader himself.

North Korea is Trump's only diplomatic success

After all, the recent detente between the US and North Korea is Mr Trump’s only diplomatic success to date. He has disrupted relations with Mexico and Canada. His tariffs have pitted the US against Europe and China.

A Middle East peace plan is also unlikely to be forthcoming. The wars in Afghanistan and Syria are still ongoing. Meanwhile, a war with Iran is brewing.

The only sign of hope is on the Korean peninsula. The summit with Kim Jong-un is the only evidence that Mr Trump is a good negotiator. Mr Trump’s new relationship with North Korea could be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Mr Trump has made some “down payments” on the investment plan. At a press conference after the Singapore summit, he praised Mr Kim Jong-un as “talented” and “incredibly smart” as well as a “good negotiator”.

This is a huge propaganda gift for the North Korean leader.

Second, Mr. Trump unilaterally canceled a major military exercise between the United States and South Korea. The US president made this decision without consulting his military advisers or the South Korean government (even though both sides agreed to the decision).

Third, according to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the Trump administration does not require a strict roadmap for nuclear disarmament.

Democrats, the media, and foreign policy experts all believe that Trump has made a bad investment. They have downplayed his performance in Singapore. They argue that North Korea “fooled” Trump and that the agreement signed at the summit was “show” and not substantive. There is now widespread skepticism that North Korea will take concrete steps toward denuclearization.

But American foreign policy makers were wrong. Mr Trump’s investment has yielded important benefits.

The two Koreas are discussing a number of important measures to improve inter-Korean relations. They are considering moving artillery barrels near the Demilitarized Zone away from the border as a confidence-building mechanism. They are discussing reopening the Kaesong Industrial Complex, a facility north of the DMZ funded by South Korea and employing North Korean workers, as well as undertaking some work at the decommissioned site to prepare for the construction of a joint liaison office.

Negotiations to resume the family reunion program this summer are also underway.

What is important here, however, is that Mr Trump does not impede progress on inter-Korean reconciliation.

In his desire to present the summit with Kim Jong-un as a success, Mr. Trump helped create a favorable environment for North and South Korea to move forward with concrete plans.

Trump does not want the North Korea "gamble" to fail

The main obstacle here is that economic sanctions remain in place. In fact, the Trump administration recently renewed US sanctions on North Korea for another year.

Meanwhile, sanctions imposed by the United Nations will make it more difficult for the two Koreas to promote economic cooperation.

However, all sanctions regimes come with exceptions. As inter-Korean relations progress, both sides should seek to include “exceptions” to international sanctions against North Korea (such as the Kaesong Industrial Complex model).

Kaesong Industrial Complex. Photo: Getty

The important thing here is that Mr. Trump invested in the success of this venture, because if this investment failed, he failed. And Mr. Donald Trump did not want to fail.

Equally important, Kim Jong-un must understand that dealing with Trump is much easier than negotiating with any successor. If Kim wants to change US-North Korea relations, he has the opportunity in the next two years. Trump’s successor could change his policies as quickly as Trump scrapped Obama’s agreements with Iran and Cuba.

Meanwhile, the two Koreas will have the opportunity to take concrete steps toward a full, verifiable and irreversible peace. They will turn the Singapore summit into something substantive.

In other words, they could create an inter-Korean business project - where many people's hopes and dreams rest - so big that it cannot collapse./.