'Dangerous gamble' in Russia-US nuclear talks when China has 'free hand'

Pressure failed

Today and tomorrow (June 22 and 23), Mr. Marshall Billingslea - Special Envoy for Arms Control of US President Donald Trump and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov will negotiate in Vienna, Austria, on the issue of extending the New Nuclear Arms Control Treaty (New START).

Before flying to Vienna, Austria to negotiate with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, Mr. Marahall Billingslea publicly expressed many times his wish that China would join the negotiations, that any agreement reached would be a multilateral agreement with China as an indispensable part.

Mr. Marahall Billingslea also increased pressure on China, saying that this superpower is the decisive factor in the success or failure of the negotiations between the US and Russia in Vienna. The recent meeting between US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and senior Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi in Hawaii also caught the attention of international public opinion. Although details of this meeting were not released, many people believe that the US will certainly not miss this opportunity to urge China to accept to sit at the negotiating table in Vienna.

Mr. Marshall Billingslea represents the US in arms control negotiations with Russia in Vienna. Photo: Getty

The US has “psychologically attacked” China by targeting its goal of becoming a superpower, emphasizing that a country can only be considered a superpower if it is transparent about its weapons program, especially nuclear weapons. So far, China’s nuclear warheads are only 320 – too small compared to Russia’s 6,357 nuclear warheads and the US’s 5,800 nuclear warheads.

However, what worries the US is the rapid increase in the number of Chinese nuclear warheads, with the number of Chinese nuclear warheads predicted to double in the next 10 years. The US admits that over the past 10 years, the US has tried to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in its overall national security strategy, but China has gone in the opposite direction. China is constantly modernizing its strategic nuclear force, causing concern for US forces as well as US allies in the Indo-Pacific region.

Notably, the US considers China to be the country with the least transparency about its nuclear weapons program among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, along with the US, UK, France, and Russia. While Russia and the US are bound by many arms control treaties, China has a relatively free hand, and as a result, up to this point, no country has an accurate and comprehensive view of China's true capabilities, except for vague information about the country's "nuclear missile arsenal" - missiles that can be launched from land, aircraft, and submarines, and is developing hypersonic weapons.

China's rapidly growing arsenal is a source of concern for the US. Photo: Daily Times

Despite pressure from the US, China has firmly rejected the possibility of participating in any arms control negotiations with Russia and the US. In the latest development, China also confirmed that it will not appear at the meeting between Marshall Billingslea and Sergei Ryabkov in Vienna today and tomorrow. China defends the argument that its arsenal is maintained at a minimum level to ensure national security, and at the same time makes a “counter-demand” to the US that only when China’s arsenal reaches the same level as Russia and the US, or Russia and the US reduce their nuclear arsenals to the same level as China, will China participate in trilateral negotiations.

That is almost an “impossible request” for the US, not to mention another “card” that China has not used, but has been mentioned by Russia, which is that if they want China to sit at the negotiating table, France and the UK - US allies and possessing 290 and 215 nuclear warheads respectively - must also fulfill similar obligations.

America's dangerous gamble

With China refusing to participate in the negotiations, the talks between Marshall Billingslea and Sergei Ryabkov have little chance of success. But what has drawn analysts’ attention is the real intention of the US in agreeing to negotiate with Russia, while also promoting China’s role as a key factor in determining the future of the New START Treaty.

The New START Treaty was signed by US President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in April 2010 and entered into force on February 5, 2011. The treaty will expire on February 5, 2021 unless both sides agree to extend it for another five years.

Russia and the US have very little time left to agree on an extension of New START. Photo: The Economist

New START is an incredibly complex treaty, with commitments by Russia and the United States to reduce their nuclear warheads by half and annual monitoring mechanisms to ensure that neither side is violating the treaty. So, there is very little time between now and the treaty’s expiration, and it will be difficult for Russia and the United States to even reach a consensus on extending the treaty, let alone moving toward a replacement treaty with China’s participation.

The US is certainly aware of this difficulty, so its insistence on involving China is seen by many as unserious and ill-intentioned. Under President Donald Trump, the US has abandoned many arms control agreements, such as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, and most recently the Open Skies Treaty. If the US does not extend New START, it will also be consistent with US policy.

Therefore, trying to put China in a decisive position for the success or failure of the negotiations in Vienna is considered a "trick" to lower the image of China - a country that the US identifies as a "formidable opponent" in the race for the position of the world's number 1 power in the future.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying also accused the US of trying to divert public opinion from its responsibility to uphold arms control treaties. Therefore, not only did China firmly reject the US invitation to participate in negotiations, but it also cleverly “steered” the story back to the right place when calling on the US to agree to extend the New START Treaty to “create conditions for other nuclear-weapon states to participate in multilateral nuclear disarmament negotiations.”

The collapse of New START would trigger a global arms race. Photo: France 24

Whether he tries to blame China, or previously blame Russia, President Donald Trump is still considered to be playing a dangerous gamble - dangerous for the United States as well as for the world. By withdrawing from arms control treaties, with New START being the largest and only remaining treaty at this point, the United States is betting that it can easily assert its number 1 position in weapons capabilities, especially nuclear weapons, if it is "unshackled". However, whether the United States can overwhelm Russia, or even China in the future, is still a question that cannot be answered with certainty.

Meanwhile, without New START, the world will no longer have any tools to prevent an arms race. There have been many signs of this race, such as Russia putting the Avangard hypersonic missile into combat duty since December 2019, the US deploying the W76-2 nuclear warhead on Ohio-class submarines since February 2020, not to mention Iran and North Korea also no longer have the motivation to restrain their nuclear development program after the negotiations broke down. Therefore, it is not difficult to understand why international public opinion is quite pessimistic about today's negotiations between Russia and the US in Vienna, Austria and calls it "the beginning of the end".