'Off the rails' in the power transition in Germany

Self-made failure

Kramp-Karrenbauer, also known as AKK, was Merkel’s “handpicked” candidate, but on February 10 announced that she would not stand as the candidate of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) to run for German chancellor in the upcoming federal election. Not only that, according to information from the CDU press office, she has also resigned as chairwoman of the party.

Ms. Kramp-Karrenbauer (left) took over as leader of Germany's CDU Party in late 2018 and was expected to succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor, but suddenly gave up everything. Photo: Reuters

It should be recalled that after nearly 15 years as chancellor, in 2018, Ms. Merkel announced that she would not seek re-election when her current term ends in 2021. At that time, she also resigned as leader of the CDU party and entrusted the seat to her successor, Kramp-Karrenbauer. However, just over a year later, the effort to ensure an orderly transfer of power, as well as Merkel's legacy, seems to have gone up in smoke.

According to CNN, some views say that this mess is a product of Ms. Merkel herself. Henrik Enderlein - Dean of the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin commented: "For me, this failure is a manifestation of how Ms. Angela Merkel exercises power. She has never allowed anyone to rise up in the federal government and become a natural successor." According to Enderlein, after Merkel stepped down as leader of the CDU in 2018, the three most promising candidates for the vacant position were Friedrich Merz - who had many years of working outside of politics, and two relatively young politicians - the 38-year-old health minister Jens Spahn and Ms. Kramp-Karrenbauer.

“AKK (Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer) was then just a relatively inexperienced regional governor of a small state in Germany”

Henrik Enderlein - Dean of the Hertie School of Management in Berlin

Ms. Merkel has held the position of German Chancellor four times. Photo: DPA

Merkel's political legacy in turmoil

Also discussing the story that is stirring up the political scene in Berlin, Florian Hense, an analyst working at Berenberg bank, commented that despite the turmoil, the possibility of Mrs. Merkel changing her mind and running again in 2021 is very rare. He believes that Merz and Armin Laschet, the premier of North Rhine-Westphalia state, will likely be the leading candidates in the upcoming leadership race. Merz lost narrowly to AKK in 2018, and Hense said that he is probably more suitable to take on the role of the far-right party, the alternative for Germany, than the other candidates for leadership. He will certainly be a popular choice, especially for those who are looking forward to a bigger change when Mrs. Merkel's era ends.

Merkel has formed a grand coalition with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), and some members of the CDU have criticised the “Iron Lady” for what they see as a leftward move. Merz, a corporate lawyer who spent the past decade at investment firm BlackRock, would be the name to move the party to the right. Spahn could also be announced, although Hesse believes his chances are more limited because he is not a popular figure among Germans.

Armin Laschet, Friedrich Merz and Jens Spahn are the leading candidates to replace Angela Merkel, after Kramp-Karrenbauer resigned as CDU chairwoman. Photo: CNN

It is clear that whoever becomes the next leader of the CDU will face the challenge of reuniting a deeply divided party. That split was on display last week, when a regional CDU branch in the eastern German state of Thuringia broke decades of taboo and joined forces with the AfD to elect a liberal candidate as state premier. “Thuringia is an example of how far the right wing of the CDU wants to make autonomous decisions and to cooperate with the far-right AfD,” Enderlein said.

Ms AKK’s failure to force CDU members in Thuringia to stick to the party’s official line was the last straw in a long list of moves that weakened her leadership. Speaking at a press conference earlier this week, she said the decision to resign had crossed her mind from time to time, calling on the CDU to become “stronger than it is today”.

Ultimately, the AKK’s surprise announcement has thrown the CDU and Germany as a whole into political uncertainty. One possible consequence of this is that Germany’s political leadership will focus more on domestic issues. If so, this could be bad news for the European Union, which is struggling to build a strong leadership while recovering from Brexit.

The AKK's surprising announcement has pushed the CDU in particular and Germany as a whole into political instability. Photo: DPA

Observers say that the current situation shows that Ms. Merkel is still the “cornerstone” of German politics. The female politician who has served as Chancellor four times is about to leave politics, but she certainly does not want to associate her legacy with the word “bubble”. However, this is most likely the most feasible scenario. Ms. Merkel’s departure will leave a large void, causing deep instability in the German political system, and this parliamentary democracy will face many ups and downs in the near future.