'Off track' in the transfer of power in Germany

Self-inflicted failure

Kramp-Karrenbauer, also known as AKK, was a figure Merkel had initially chosen to represent her, but on February 10th, she announced that she would not be running as the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) candidate for Chancellor in the upcoming federal election. Furthermore, according to the CDU press office, she has also resigned as party chair.

Kramp-Karrenbauer (left), who took over leadership of Germany's CDU party in late 2018 and was widely expected to succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor, has unexpectedly relinquished all her positions. Photo: Reuters

It's worth recalling that after nearly 15 years as chancellor, in 2018, Merkel announced that she would not seek re-election when her current term ended in 2021. At that time, she also resigned as leader of the CDU party, handing over the position to her successor, Kramp-Karrenbauer. However, just over a year later, efforts to ensure an orderly transfer of power, as well as Merkel's legacy, seem to have vanished into thin air.

According to CNN, some argue that this mess is a product of Merkel herself. Henrik Enderlein, head of the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin, stated: “To me, this failure is a manifestation of how Angela Merkel exercises power. She has never allowed anyone to rise up in the federal government and become a natural successor.” According to Enderlein, after Merkel stepped down as CDU leader in 2018, the three most promising candidates for the vacant position were Friedrich Merz – who had many years of experience outside of politics – and two relatively young politicians: 38-year-old Health Minister Jens Spahn and Kramp-Karrenbauer.

"AKK (Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer) was then just a relatively inexperienced regional governor of a small German state."

Henrik Enderlein - Head of Hertie School of Management in Berlin

Merkel has served as German Chancellor four times. Photo: DPA

The tangled political legacy of Merkel

Also discussing the turbulent political scene in Berlin, Florian Hense, an analyst at Berenberg Bank, believes that despite the turmoil, the likelihood of Merkel changing her mind and running for re-election in 2021 is very low. He suggests that Merz and Armin Laschet, the Minister President of North Rhine-Westphalia, could be the leading candidates in the upcoming leadership race. Merz narrowly lost to AKK in 2018, and Hense claims that he is perhaps a better fit for the far-right party, Germany's alternative leadership choice, than other candidates. He would certainly be a popular choice, especially for those hoping for a bigger change as Merkel's era comes to an end.

Merkel has formed a broad coalition with the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), and some members of the CDU have criticized the "Iron Lady" for what they see as a leftward shift. Merz, a corporate lawyer who spent the past decade at the investment firm BlackRock, would be the name to steer the party toward the right. Spahn's potential entry into the coalition is also not ruled out, although Hesse suggests his chances are somewhat more limited, as he is not a figure who enjoys widespread popular support in Germany.

Armin Laschet, Friedrich Merz, and Jens Spahn are leading candidates to replace Angela Merkel after Kramp-Karrenbauer resigned as CDU chairman. Photo: CNN

It must be stated clearly that whoever becomes the next leader of the CDU will undoubtedly face the challenge of reuniting a party that is deeply divided. This division was evident last week when a regional branch of the CDU in the eastern German state of Thuringia broke a decades-old taboo and joined forces with the AfD to select a liberal candidate to become the state's premier. Enderlein analyzes: "Thuringia is an example of how the right wing within the CDU wants autonomy in decision-making and how it secretly cooperates with the far-right AfD."

AKK's inability to force CDU members in Thuringia to adhere to the party's official line was merely the "last straw" in a long list of actions that weakened her leadership. Speaking at a press conference earlier this week, she said that the decision to resign had occasionally crossed her mind, and called for the CDU to become "stronger than it is now."

Ultimately, AKK's surprising announcement has plunged the CDU in particular, and Germany as a whole, into political instability. One possible consequence of this event is that German political leaders will focus more on domestic issues. If so, this could be unwelcome news for the European Union, which is struggling to build a strong leadership in its recovery from Brexit.

The AKK's surprising statement has plunged the CDU in particular, and Germany as a whole, into political instability. Photo: DPA

Observers believe that the current situation shows Merkel remains a "cornerstone" in German politics. The female politician, who has served as Chancellor four times, is about to leave politics, but she certainly doesn't want her legacy to be tainted by the word "tangled." However, this is very likely the most probable scenario. Merkel's departure will leave a huge void, causing deep instability in the German political system, and awaiting this parliamentary democracy will be a series of challenging ups and downs in the not-too-distant future.