Five-Year Strategy and North Korean Pressure

TEARS OF THE LEADER

At the time, North Korea was one of the world's poorest countries and was constrained by international economic sanctions due to its relentless pursuit of a nuclear weapons program. As a result, North Korea's five-year economic development strategy received high expectations.

Photo taken in May 2016 when Leader Kim Jong-un announced the 5-year development strategy. Photo: KCNA

On the important national day marking the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea, leader Kim Jong-un could have celebrated the country's economic successes. However, the past few years have not gone as he expected, and in August 2020, Kim Jong-un even admitted that the plan had failed. The reason was pointed out as many "unexpected and unavoidable challenges, as well as the situation in the Korean Peninsula region".

"Behind the message, one can sense that Kim Jong-un is feeling a lot of pressure on his leadership role."

Hong Minh, Korea Institute for National Unification

Unlike previous years, while delivering his commemorative speech, Leader Kim Jong-un burst into tears. While in the past, speeches at major national events often focused on praising North Korea's military might, this year the main content was devoted to sharing the leader's sympathy with the people in the face of many simultaneous challenges. Leader Kim Jong-un expressed his sadness at not being able to significantly improve their lives, despite the absolute support of the people. North Korea has been facingmajor crisiswhen facing three challenges at the same time: international sanctions, the Covid-19 pandemic and natural disasters.

Hong Minh, head of the North Korea division at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said: “Behind the message, one can sense that Kim Jong-un is feeling a lot of pressure on his leadership role. He is going through a really difficult period of running the country.”

Leader Kim Jong-un burst into tears while delivering a speech marking the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea. Photo: Yonhap

UNPRECEDENTED CRISIS

The national strategy of developing a nuclear weapons program while simultaneously trying to boost the economy is hardly balanced in practice. Kim Jong-un has overseen numerous nuclear and ballistic missile tests, while the economy has been in decline by the day. North Korea has completed its efforts to develop nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to create a “mighty sword of peace,” but this has resulted in years of belt-tightening for its people.

Three summits, two leaders, one major disagreement - that's how the nuclear talks between the US and North Korea have panned out.

North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is costly. Every missile test is viewed by the international community as a major provocation. Pyongyang is repeatedly hit with UN Security Council sanctions, which it is hoped will suffocate the North Korean economy enough to force Kim Jong-un to the negotiating table.

The diplomatic option was Kim Jong-un’s logical next step in implementing his country’s five-year strategy, but things have continued to go awry. Three summits, two leaders, one major disagreement—that’s how the nuclear negotiations between the US and North Korea have been described. By the third meeting in June 2019 at the demilitarized zone separating the two Koreas, Pyongyang was in its third year of a five-year plan, but it had yet to deliver the promised economic prosperity to its people.

US President Donald Trump (right) and North Korean President Kim Jong-un during a private meeting at the second US-North Korea Summit in Hanoi on February 28, 2019. Photo: AFP

The sharp disagreement over the big picture prevented the US and North Korea from reaching trust and an agreement. The negotiations gradually reached a deadlock. Therefore, Pyongyang continued toweapons testing. Sanctions remain in place and are preventing Pyongyang from improving its economic prospects.

Then the global pandemic worsened North Korea’s economic woes. Despite being one of the world’s most secretive countries, its proximity to China has not spared it from the pandemic. International travel to North Korea was severely restricted even before the pandemic. But in January, North Korea was forced to close its borders, declare a state of emergency, and set up quarantine centers across the country. Even for a country known as the “hermit kingdom,” self-reliant, closing its borders would come with serious costs.

Pyongyang relies heavily on trade with China to keep its economy afloat. Therefore, whenborder closureWith China, North Korea essentially has no economic lifeline left. In addition, this summer's historic floods caused by major typhoons have also depleted resources.

Leader Kim Jong-un reviews troops at the celebration. Photo: KCNA

Under the negative impacts of the pandemic and sanctions that remain in effect, it is clear that Leader Kim Jong-un's goal of providing his people with a "rich and civilized life" has yet to be fulfilled.

CONTINUE TO PURSUE THE STRATEGY

Faced with a bleak economic picture, leader Kim Jong-un could not celebrate economic achievements on the recent major anniversary. However, as experts predicted, Pyongyang took advantage of the opportunity.ballistic missile announcementA new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) incorporating the latest technology. Military experts and researchers have called this missile “a monster”, saying it is much larger and more powerful than any missile in North Korea’s arsenal.

Satellite imagery also showed activity at a shipping facility known to develop submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), fueling speculation that Pyongyang may be testing a new type of solid-fuel SLBM. A successful test launch would mark another milestone in North Korea's push to develop advanced weapons technology.

North Korea's new intercontinental ballistic missile is displayed during a military parade marking the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean Workers' Party. Photo: Yonhap

Whether it is a demonstration or a test, any new weapon will attract a lot of international attention. For North Korea, a show of military might will help distract from the pandemic, the economy and its failing five-year plan.

Kim Jong-un's economic ambitions may not have materialized, but as a shrewd politician, the international community will still be watching when he announces his next five-year plan in January 2021. What new directions will be put forward, in the context of an economy squeezed by sanctions?