Putin's strategy in giving S-300 missiles to Syria

The S-300 complexes will be integrated into the air defense system currently deployed in Syria and Syrian servicemen will be trained to operate the air defense complex within three months, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said on October 2.

Russian S-300 air defense missile. Source: AFP/VNA

"This surprisingly quick delivery suggests that Russia appears to have taken the S-300s from storage or from an air defense unit to hand over to Syria," wrote commentator Anshel Pfeffer onHaaretz. "This makes the missile delivery time so short."

Russia delivered the S-300 air defense system to Syria shortly after the country's IL-20 reconnaissance aircraft was mistakenly shot down by Syrian air defenses on September 17, killing 15 Russian servicemen. Russia accused the Israeli pilot of flying an F-16 fighter jet of hiding behind the ill-fated IL-20 and turning the reconnaissance aircraft into prey for Syrian air defense missiles.

However, in the announcement of the completion of the S-300 handover to Syria, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu did not mention Israel, showing that the transfer of the S-300 to Syria was part of Russian President Vladimir Putin's strategic calculation and the downing of the IL-20 reconnaissance plane was the catalyst to accelerate this process, Pfeffer commented.

"The S-300 is unlikely to prevent Israel from attacking Iranian targets in Syria, but it will change the way the Israeli military operates. This means that Israel will have to return to the secretive operations it had before when senior Israeli politicians and generals proudly announced that the country's military had carried out hundreds of airstrikes against Syria," the expert said.

The Israeli Defense Force (IDF) has the experience, knowledge, and equipment to avoid being detected by the S-300. In 2015, the IDF conducted an exercise to counter the S-300 in Greece. However, the participation of Russian military personnel in operating S-300 batteries in Syria will make the IDF more cautious. The more advanced equipment in the S-300 complex also helps the Syrian air defense avoid unfortunate incidents such as the accidental shooting down of the Russian IL-20 reconnaissance plane.

Pfeffer said that in addition to helping Syria build an advanced air defense system to counter Israel, the transfer of the S-300 could also be part of President Putin's plan with the October 4 announcement that all foreign forces must eventually leave Syria.

Putin had ordered a gradual withdrawal of Russian forces in Syria as the war against rebels and opposition groups drew to a close, but the Il-20 downing and subsequent deployment of the S-300 likely prompted the Russian president to make other choices, including the possibility of a long-term Russian military presence in Syria.

As the fight against the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) in Syria has subsided, foreign powers have increasingly intervened in the country to compete for influence and impose the rules of the game. In this context, Russia’s long-term military presence in Syria plays a very important role.

The Russian-backed offensive against the last rebel and jihadist stronghold in Syria's Idlib province has been shelved under a deal with Türkiye, but territorial unification remains the overriding desire of the Russian-backed Syrian government.

IS still has about 30,000 fighters gathered in the eastern region of Syria. The existence of IS remnants is the reason for the US to decide to continue maintaining the presence of special forces in Syria to support Kurdish forces in the Euphrates River basin.

Iran recently launched a missile and drone attack campaign against Syrian extremist groups that Tehran accused of being behind the shooting in the city of Ahvaz.

The recent events in Syria, coupled with the threat by the US on October 2 to destroy Russian cruise missiles on their launch pads, have certainly forced President Putin to make long-term calculations for Russia in Syria, of which the transfer of the S-300 system is part.

"Russia's move to transfer the S-300 to Syria implies that Moscow is ready to respond if any country challenges Russia's current position in Syria in particular and the Middle East in general," Pfeffer commented.