Putin's strategy in giving S-300 missiles to Syria

The S-300 complexes will be integrated into the air defense system currently deployed in Syria and Syrian servicemen will be trained to operate the air defense complexes within three months, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said on October 2.

Russian S-300 air defense missile. Source: AFP/TTXVN

"This surprisingly quick delivery suggests that Russia appears to have taken the S-300s from storage or withdrawn them from an air defense unit to hand over to Syria," wrote commentator Anshel Pfeffer onHaaretz. "This makes the missile delivery time so short."

The S-300 air defense system was delivered to Syria by Russia shortly after the country's IL-20 reconnaissance aircraft was mistakenly shot down by Syrian air defense on September 17, killing 15 Russian servicemen. Russia accused the Israeli pilot of flying an F-16 fighter jet of hiding behind the ill-fated IL-20 and turning the reconnaissance aircraft into prey for Syrian air defense missiles.

However, in the announcement of the completion of the S-300 handover to Syria, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu did not mention Israel, showing that the transfer of the S-300 to Syria is part of Russian President Vladimir Putin's strategic calculation and the downing of the IL-20 reconnaissance plane is a catalyst to accelerate this process, Pfeffer commented.

"The S-300 is unlikely to prevent Israel from attacking Iranian targets in Syria, but this complex will change the way the Israeli military operates. This means that Israel will have to return to secret operations like the time before Israeli politicians and senior generals proudly announced that the Israeli military carried out hundreds of airstrikes against Syria," the expert said.

The Israeli military (IDF) has enough experience, knowledge and equipment to avoid being detected by the S-300. In 2015, the IDF practiced countering the S-300 in Greece. However, the participation of Russian military personnel in operating S-300 batteries in Syria will make the IDF more cautious. The more advanced equipment in the S-300 complex also helps the Syrian air defense avoid unfortunate incidents such as the accidental shooting down of the Russian IL-20 reconnaissance plane.

Pfeffer said that in addition to helping Syria build an advanced air defense system to counter Israel, the transfer of the S-300 could also be part of President Putin's plan with the October 4 announcement that all foreign forces must eventually leave Syria.

Putin had ordered a gradual withdrawal of Russian forces in Syria as the war against rebels and opposition groups was coming to an end, but the Il-20 downing and subsequent S-300 deployment likely prompted the Russian president to make other choices, including the possibility of the Russian military continuing to have a long-term presence in Syria.

As the war against the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) in Syria has subsided, foreign powers have increasingly intervened in the country to compete for influence and impose rules of the game. In that context, Russia's long-term military presence in Syria plays a very important role.

A Russian-backed offensive against the last rebel and insurgent stronghold in Syria's Idlib province has been shelved under a deal with Türkiye, but territorial reunification remains the overriding desire of the Russian-backed Syrian government.

IS still has about 30,000 fighters gathered in the eastern region of Syria. The existence of IS remnants is the reason for the US to decide to continue maintaining the presence of special forces in Syria to support Kurdish forces in the Euphrates River basin.

Iran recently launched a missile and drone attack campaign against Syrian extremist Islamic groups that Tehran accused of being behind the shooting in the city of Ahvaz.

The recent events in Syria, coupled with the US threat to destroy Russian cruise missiles on their launch pads on October 2, certainly forced President Putin to make long-term calculations for Russia in Syria, of which the transfer of the S-300 system is part of this strategy.

"Russia's move to transfer the S-300 to Syria implies that Moscow is ready to respond if any country challenges Russia's current position in Syria in particular and the Middle East region in general," Pfeffer commented.