Russia's new offensive strategy leaves Ukraine with no safe place

While intensifying airstrikes, Russia has also changed tactics by increasing the number of missile and drone attacks on western Ukraine such as Lviv, Chernivtsi and Lutsk, places that were once considered relatively safe.

On July 12, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that for the third consecutive night, Russia launched 26 cruise missiles and 597 drones to attack areas in western Ukraine, far from the front line. Ukraine shot down most of the UAVs and more than 20 Russian missiles. However, Kiev confirmed that two people were killed and 20 others were injured.

Experts believe the recent wave of Russian airstrikes shows a change in the Kremlin's strategy.

“They have never had any technical problems getting into western Ukraine, whether it be Lviv or any other area,” Israel-based military analyst David Sharp told the Kyiv Independent. “It’s always a matter of priorities,” Sharp said, stressing that while Ukraine’s air defenses are very effective at stopping cruise missiles, UAVs pose a completely different threat.

“Cruise missiles are very expensive and their use is limited in terms of finance and production capacity. So when Russia achieved the capacity to produce large numbers of UAVs, they seized the opportunity,” Mr. Sharp explained.

The aim of the massive attack on Western Ukraine

For most of the conflict, Russia’s Shahed UAVs have been directed against central and southern Ukraine, hitting cities like Odessa, Mykolaiv, Dnipro, and Kiev. But in recent weeks, the attacks have expanded westward. On July 9, for example, Russia launched 728 Shahed UAVs and decoy UAVs across enemy territory.

Serhii Bratchuk, a spokesman for the Ukrainian army's southern division, said the move was part of a broader Russian strategy to sow fear and undermine trust.

"This tactic is aimed at increasing people's fear, deepening the feeling of insecurity and loss of confidence in the Ukrainian government or defense forces across the country. Russia's attack shows that all regions are potentially threatened," Mr. Bratchuk emphasized.

According to him, Russia's tactic is to overload Ukraine's air defense systems by using a large number of Shahed UAVs and decoy UAVs.

“The Russian strategy is clear. They choose a town, usually a large or medium-sized town, and attack it continuously to the maximum extent. Unlike before, when the attacks were mainly at night, now Russia can attack all day. This is a deliberate attack against the whole of Ukraine,” Mr. Bratchuk said.

In the same vein, Mr. Sharp believes that Russia’s goal is also to weaken Ukraine’s military capabilities by stretching its resources, forcing the enemy to intercept Shahed UAVs and cruise missiles. He explains that many Ukrainian air defense units are stuck defending cities in the rear, rather than being deployed near the front line, where they could pose a more direct threat to the Russian military.

According to Mr. Sharp, Western military aid packages are allocated in financial form, meaning resources used for air defense may have been diverted to other needs.

“If Ukraine had not had to intercept the Shahed UAV near Lutsk, that money could have been used for HIMARS missiles or other weapons,” said Mr. Sharp.

What happens next?

Both Mr. Bratchuk and Mr. Sharp warned that Russia is unlikely to reduce its UAV production. Instead, Russia will increase attacks using Shahed UAVs and decoy UAVs to weaken air defenses and sow confusion among Ukrainians.

President Zelensky also recently predicted that Russia will escalate its UAV attacks and be capable of launching up to 1,000 UAVs per day.

“Russia is not sitting still. They are using cheap decoy UAVs, which are wasting resources and causing stress for both civilians and the Ukrainian military,” said Mr. Sharp.

Meanwhile, Mr. Bratchuk emphasized the need to provide advanced weapons to strengthen Ukraine's mobile firepower in preventing Russian airstrikes. "They need better weapons such as heavy machine guns, man-portable air defense systems, and possibly light fighters capable of shooting down UAVs," Mr. Bratchuk said.

He also mentioned the importance of developing interceptor UAVs to counter enemy drones. However, according to him, the optimal solution is to attack the source of the UAV threat. He hopes that Ukraine's partners will provide the necessary weapons, because "Kiev cannot solve the problem on its own right now."

Russia began widespread use of the Shahed UAV in Ukraine in late 2022. Its low cost and relative ease of production have made it a central part of Moscow's airstrike strategy.

According to Airwars, a London-based conflict monitoring organization, Russian forces launched nearly 2,000 Shahed UAVs into Ukraine between September 13, 2022 and August 30, 2023. However, this number skyrocketed in 2025. Specifically, in June alone, Russia launched a record 5,337 Shahed UAVs into Ukraine.