Russia's new offensive strategy leaves Ukraine with no safe place

While stepping up airstrikes, Russia has also changed tactics by increasing the number of missile and drone attacks on western Ukraine such as Lviv, Chernivtsi and Lutsk, places that were once considered relatively safe.

On July 12, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that for the third consecutive night, Russia launched 26 cruise missiles and 597 drones against areas in western Ukraine, far from the front line. Ukraine shot down most of the UAVs and more than 20 Russian missiles. However, Kiev confirmed that two people were killed and 20 others were injured.

Experts believe the recent wave of Russian airstrikes shows a change in the Kremlin's strategy.

“They have never had any technical problems getting into western Ukraine, Lviv or any other area,” Israel-based military analyst David Sharp told the Kyiv Independent. “It’s always a matter of priorities,” Sharp said, stressing that while Ukraine’s air defenses are very effective at stopping cruise missiles, UAVs are a completely different threat.

“Cruise missiles are very expensive and their use is limited in terms of both financial and production capacity. So when Russia achieved the capacity to produce large numbers of UAVs, they seized the opportunity,” Mr. Sharp explained.

The aim of the massive attack on Western Ukraine

For most of the conflict, Russia’s Shahed UAVs have been directed primarily at central and southern Ukraine, hitting cities like Odessa, Mykolaiv, Dnipro, and Kiev. But in recent weeks, the attacks have expanded westward. On July 9, for example, Russia launched 728 Shahed UAVs and decoy UAVs across enemy territory.

Serhii Bratchuk, a spokesman for the Ukrainian army's southern division, said the move was part of a broader Russian strategy to sow fear and undermine trust.

"This tactic is aimed at increasing fear among the population, deepening the sense of insecurity and loss of confidence in the Ukrainian government or defense forces throughout the country. The Russian attack shows that all regions are potentially threatened," Mr. Bratchuk emphasized.

According to him, Russia's tactic is to overload Ukrainian air defense systems by using large numbers of Shahed UAVs and decoy UAVs.

“The Russian strategy is clear. They choose a town, usually a large or medium-sized town, and attack it continuously to the maximum extent. Unlike before, when the attacks were mainly carried out at night, now Russia can attack all day. This is a deliberate attack against the entire country of Ukraine,” Mr. Bratchuk said.

In the same vein, Sharp believes Russia’s goal is also to weaken Ukraine’s military capabilities by stretching its resources, forcing the enemy to intercept Shahed UAVs and cruise missiles. He explains that many Ukrainian air defense units are stuck defending cities in the rear, rather than being deployed closer to the front line, where they could pose a more direct threat to Russian forces.

Western military aid packages are also allocated in financial terms, meaning resources used for air defense could be diverted to other needs, Sharp said.

“If Ukraine had not had to intercept the Shahed UAV near Lutsk, that money could have been spent on HIMARS missiles or other weapons,” said Mr. Sharp.

What happens next?

Both Bratchuk and Sharp warned that Russia is unlikely to reduce its UAV production. Instead, Russia will increase attacks using Shahed UAVs and decoy UAVs to weaken air defenses and sow confusion among Ukrainians.

President Zelensky also recently predicted that Russia will escalate its attacks with UAVs and be capable of launching up to 1,000 UAVs per day.

“Russia is not sitting still. They are using cheap decoy UAVs, which are draining resources and causing stress for both civilians and the Ukrainian military,” said Mr. Sharp.

Meanwhile, Mr. Bratchuk emphasized the need to provide advanced weapons to strengthen Ukraine’s mobile firepower in deterring Russian airstrikes. “They need better weapons like heavy machine guns, man-portable air defense systems, and maybe light fighters capable of shooting down UAVs,” Mr. Bratchuk said.

He also mentioned the importance of developing interceptor UAVs to counter enemy drones. However, according to him, the optimal solution is to attack the source of the UAV threat. He hopes that Ukraine's partners will provide the necessary weapons, because "Kiev cannot solve the problem on its own right now."

Russia began using the Shahed UAV extensively in Ukraine in late 2022. Its low cost and relative ease of production have made it a central part of Moscow's airstrike strategy.

According to Airwars, a London-based conflict monitoring organization, Russian forces launched nearly 2,000 Shahed UAVs into Ukraine between September 13, 2022 and August 30, 2023. However, this number skyrocketed in 2025. Specifically, in June of this year alone, Russia launched a record 5,337 Shahed UAVs into Ukraine.