Will victory once again call Mr. Trump's name?

Trump's Road to Victory

President Trump is closing the gap with Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the battleground states of Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. Republicans are also pulling away from Democrats in early voting in Florida. If President Trump can win the Sun Belt states he won in 2016 and defeat Biden in Pennsylvania, he could retain the White House for another four years.

"You'll see clearly how he can win," said Republican strategist Jeff Rose, who worked on Ted Cruz's 2016 presidential campaign.

Still, Mr. Trump’s path to victory is fraught with uncertainty, from a Republican “explosive” turnout on Election Day, including new voters, to lackluster support for Mr. Biden among some groups of voters, especially young voters of color, to disruptions at some polling stations that reduce Democratic turnout, to a legitimate victory related to vote counting or overwhelming support for Mr. Trump among undecided voters.

Democratic and Republican strategists and campaign officials agree that President Trump will need most or all of the above in many states to win.

Last week, a Democratic strategist outlined several possible outcomes for Mr. Trump’s electoral votes. There are three possible outcomes: the first is that President Trump wins with 279 electoral votes, the second is a tie, and the third is that the electoral vote ratio between the two candidates is 259 - 259 while Pennsylvania will be the last state to decide the outcome.

If that happens, the Democratic strategist fears the opportunity for President Trump to prepare for post-election legal challenges will be greater: "If we don't win on election night, they're going to fight this and come out with a victory."

Trump campaign regains confidence in victory

Trump advisers and allies say they have grown more optimistic about the president’s re-election prospects in recent days, with polls showing a narrow margin in some states after the second presidential debate. They also say recent strong economic data will help undecided voters decide to vote for Trump.

Who will win the race to the White House?

The US leader is "sprinting" in the battleground states with 14 campaign rallies in 7 states over the weekend and on November 2. Mr. Trump also did not rule out the possibility of holding some campaign rallies on November 3 in the final hours of the election.

President Trump’s best-case scenario — one that his supporters hope for the most — is that the polls are wrong. The state-by-state polls four years ago did not accurately reflect the correlation between the two candidates. This year, the survey results between the two candidates in the battleground states are also noteworthy, although Mr. Biden has consistently led in most of these states.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll released on October 28 showed that Mr. Biden led Mr. Trump by 17 points in Wisconsin, but on the same day, a Marquette Law School poll showed the gap in the state was only 5 points.

President Trump's team is now focusing on states he won four years ago, even though his advisers know he won't be able to reverse the three Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin like he did four years ago.

Aside from Florida, a must-win state for President Trump, Pennsylvania is the most important state that both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are competing for. President Trump could win Pennsylvania and still lose the race for the White House. However, if he fails to win Pennsylvania, where he currently trails by 5 points, he has no chance of even continuing the race. This helps explain why Mr. Trump has focused so heavily on the state, holding four rallies on October 31 alone.

Christopher Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Public Opinion Research Institute in Allentown, Pennsylvania, questioned Trump's victory in the state, but said that if Trump could improve his standing with older voters and mobilize a significant number of rural voters, the President could still win.

Minnesota Democrats warned voters on October 29 not to vote by mail after several federal judges suggested that late-arriving ballots would be invalid. President Trump himself predicted that this year's election "will end up in the Supreme Court."

Of the 17 states Trump initially targeted, he skipped three that he lost in 2016 but still hopes to win: Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico. President Trump is also focusing on three states he failed to win in 2016: Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire, to "make up" for the states he may lose this year. For example, Trump may lose Wisconsin, but if he wins Minnesota or Nevada and New Hampshire, he can still win the same number of electoral votes.

“He’s trying to hold on to what he has and knows he’s probably going to lose a state or two,” said Scott Jennings, an official who worked under President George W. Bush and is close to President Trump’s White House.

Trump campaign officials acknowledged that the president has not performed well as Election Day nears, but they have become more confident in his re-election chances in recent days.

"While we don't take the results for granted, we are increasingly confident in the President's ability to win," said Steve Cortes, senior adviser to President Trump's campaign.

In Florida, top Trump campaign officials have insisted that the margin between Biden and Trump is smaller than the margin between Hillary Clinton and Trump at this point in 2016.

"Although national polls show much worse results than this time in 2016, the numbers in the battleground states are almost equal," said an adviser to President Trump./.