Clinton, Trump and the future of US foreign policy

(Baonghean.vn) - Since World War II, it can be said that no US presidential election has had as much influence on the world as 2016.

The presidencies of Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump could affect the world in different ways. Photo: Reuters

A candidate who represents continuity, signaling that Mrs. Clinton will do even more than her predecessor to shore up the current liberal world order.

Mrs. Clinton's opponent vows to change that order, eliminating alliances and free trade agreements, while seeking to cut off trade with the world's authoritarian powers.

If Donald Trump wins the election on November 8, a foreign policy crisis could unfold in the heart of Washington if he follows through on his campaign promises.

On the other hand, if Hillary Clinton wins the election, she will face the problem of how to distinguish her foreign policy from that of Mr. Obama, especially when faced with the influence of President Vladimir Putin.

North Korea

North Korea is expected to soon complete nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the west coast of the United States.

Faced with this problem, Clinton's foreign policy advisers said they would ensure support for allies Japan and South Korea, while pressuring China to enforce UN sanctions. If that fails, the Clinton administration would have to accept Pyongyang's nuclear weapons status on the condition that it halts ballistic missile development.

If Mr. Trump were in the Oval Office, there would likely be a nuclear arms race in Northeast Asia. Ultimately, the Trump administration would have to deal with the threat of North Korea’s long-range missiles. If negotiations fail, he would be prepared to use America’s nuclear arsenal.

China

Beijing has turned the South China Sea into naval and air bases to control some of the world's busiest shipping lanes. New Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has threatened to remove US troops from the country.

Mrs. Clinton's policy will focus on restoring the confidence of American allies in Southeast Asia to help them resist China's efforts to dominate the East Sea.

Mr. Trump has not yet come up with a concrete solution to this problem. He is more focused on the trade relationship with Beijing. He may turn a blind eye to China’s takeover of the East Sea in exchange for a bilateral agreement with better terms.

Syria

During the presidential debates, Clinton talked about establishing “no-fly zones” and “safe zones” in Syria. However, this idea may be blocked because of the risk of direct confrontation with Russia. The former secretary of state will also seek to increase the amount of weapons used to suppress opposition groups.

Mr Trump wants to join forces with Mr Assad and Mr Putin to solve the IS problem. This may be seen as a betrayal by the Syrian opposition and the Gulf countries.

Russia and Ukraine

A Clinton administration would take a tougher line with Moscow, seeking to take a leadership role in negotiations with Russia over Ukraine and the Minsk peace process. Clinton could also send arms aid to Ukraine to increase US leverage.

In contrast, Mr. Trump would likely accept Russia's annexation of Crimea and influence in eastern Ukraine.

Europe and NATO

Clinton's aide said he was ready to help bring the EU and NATO together and would attend summits of both in February.

In contrast, Mr. Trump has called NATO obsolete and questioned the purpose of the defense pact, causing anxiety among Eastern European countries facing Russian aggression.

Commerce

Mrs. Clinton is likely to pursue and complete ambitious multilateral trade agreements like the Obama administration's two major free trade projects: the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with Europe (TTIP) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with countries on the Pacific Rim.

Mr. Trump opposes the above transactions and promises to seek bilateral trade agreements with better conditions.

Climate change

Mr Trump wants to withdraw the US from the Paris agreement on climate change because he believes it is a hoax by China, and that efforts to reduce greenhouse gases mean the risk of affecting US jobs.

So if elected, he would likely scrap Obama's Clean Power Plan, a policy that would limit emissions from power plants.

Thanh Hien

(According to the Guardian)