Covid-19 and the 'nightmare scenario' Bill Gates once warned about.

An unwanted "title"

A terrible week has just unfolded for humanity, with over half a million people in numerous countries now infected with the novel coronavirus (Covid-19), overwhelming and paralyzing healthcare systems, even in the most prosperous nations. This wave of infection has forced governments to impose successive widespread lockdowns, disrupting the daily lives of billions of people worldwide.

In the US, on March 26th, people were stunned to realize they had surpassed several "hotspots" to receive the unfortunate "title" of the country with the highest number of cases of the acute respiratory disease caused by the virus in the world. More than 82,000 cases in the country have tested positive for Covid-19, higher than the number in Italy – which has the highest number of deaths – and even China – where the virus was first detected in December 2019 in Wuhan city, Hubei province.

People line up to get tested for Covid-19 in New York, USA. Photo: AFP

Fears of a potential global recession, let alone a crisis, are mounting, prompting leaders of the Group of 20 (G20) economies to hold online talks on Thursday to address the crisis, pledging a “solidarity front” to combat the outbreak, along with a massive financial stimulus package.

In a statement, the global economic giants affirmed: “This virus knows no borders. We are injecting more than $5 trillion into the global economy as part of targeted fiscal policies, economic measures, and safeguards to respond to the social, economic, and financial impacts of this pandemic.”

In addition, they pledged "strong" support for developing countries, which are likely to be hit hard by Covid-19 in the coming period after devastating China and Europe. However, according to analysts, the solidarity promised by the G20 is unlikely to live up to expectations, as the two leading economies, the US and China, are still exchanging harsh criticisms about each other's response to the coronavirus crisis.

The number of deaths from Covid-19 in Spain has surpassed that of China. Photo: AFP

In the European Union (EU), the situation is not much better, with Italy and Spain – the country with the second-highest death toll in the world – speaking out against the draft economic plan of the 26-member bloc, arguing that it is insufficient and too weak to cope with the situation. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte affirmed his desire for a “strong and sufficient” financial response to deploy “new financial tools that are truly adapted to a war” like the current one.

Where is the peak of the pandemic?

Shocked by the rapid spread of the coronavirus in Italy, France took drastic measures to contain the virus and began a lockdown on March 17th. Yet, by March 26th, the country had recorded an additional 365 deaths, the highest number in a single day. Furthermore, among the unfortunate victims was a 16-year-old girl, considered a rare case of a young person succumbing to a virus strain that is still considered particularly dangerous for the elderly.

In a recent statement to the press, Jerome Salomon, a French health official, said it is difficult to predict when the epidemic will peak. However, he remained quite optimistic, noting that those currently infected were likely infected before the lockdown came into effect.

"Now that contact has decreased and people are staying indoors, the number of infections will increase less. Therefore, we hope that next week there will be fewer people infected and fewer hospitalizations."

Jerome Salomon - a French health official.

Some scientists in France are researching ways to combat the coronavirus. Photo: AFP

This is not just a concern for France alone, because in the context of healthcare facilities being under immense pressure, medical staff in developed countries like Italy and Spain have had to make harsh choices when undertaking their duties in the heart of the pandemic. Sara Chinchilla, a pediatrician at a hospital near Madrid, confided: “If there are five patients and only one bed left, I would have to choose who gets treated. Those who could have been saved are now dying because there is no more space in the intensive care unit.”

Similarly, in the UK, the National Health Service has stated that hospitals in London are facing "consecutive tsunamis" of critically ill Covid-19 patients, even though the country imposed a lockdown this week.

Meanwhile, in New York – the coronavirus hotspot in the US – state officials are hoping to stem the surge in cases, as the city is already in need of twice its current number of hospital beds. As Governor Andrew Cuomo has warned, almost any realistic scenario would overwhelm the capacity of the existing healthcare system.

Is it still possible to act quickly?

The pandemic has so far inflicted devastating damage on the global economy. Even the world's number one economy, the US, recorded a record 3.3 million unemployment benefit claims last week. A massive number of people have lost their jobs across industries, from food to retail and transportation, as nearly half the country has had to close non-essential businesses. These are just initial figures; the situation is likely to worsen significantly in the coming period, even though the US Senate has begun to approve a $2 trillion relief package.

People line up in pre-drawn circles to maintain social distancing outside a pharmacy in India. Photo: AFP

Global lockdowns have also had a significant impact on India's massive population, while in Russia, all international flights have been suspended, and the mayor of Moscow has ordered the closure of cafes, shops, and parks. Millions of Tokyo residents have also been forced to stay indoors, just days after receiving the shocking news that the 2020 Summer Olympics have been postponed to next year. Most foreign nationals are also being "banned" from China, as Beijing fears that "imported" cases will ruin its hard-won success in reducing domestic infections…

The impact of the new virus strain extends beyond the frontline medical staff, threatening billions of people currently trying to stay indoors, who risk facing what experts call long-term psychological damage.

In recent days, a rare glimmer of hope has emerged as the number of new daily infections in major outbreaks like Italy and Spain has shown signs of leveling off. Undeniably, these figures are an "encouraging sign," as the World Health Organization has noted, but vigilance is also necessary, as it is too early to determine whether the pandemic has peaked. We must not be complacent or underestimate the situation, because if things unfold as bleakly predicted by Imperial College London, 1.8 million people on the planet could never see the light of day again, even with humanity's swift efforts to contain Covid-19.