President Macron's 'dice roll' and the political earthquake in France.
French President Emmanuel Macron rolled the dice on his political future on June 9th, calling for early parliamentary elections later this month.
The move comes after he was defeated by Marine Le Pen's far-right party in the European Union referendum.
An unexpected move
According to Reuters, Macron's shocking decision has caused a political earthquake in France, giving the far-right a chance to seize real political power after years on the sidelines and potentially rendering Macron's presidency "nominal" with three years remaining in his term.
This is because, if Le Pen's National Rally (RN) party wins a majority in parliament, Macron will have virtually no influence on domestic affairs.
President Macron said that the EU election results were harsh for his government and something he could not ignore. In a nationwide address, less than two months before Paris hosted the Olympic Games, he announced that the parliamentary elections would be held on June 30th and the second round of voting on July 7th.
Macron stated: “This is a time for clarity. I have heard your message, your concerns, and I will not ignore them... France needs a clear majority to act calmly and harmoniously.”
Following President Macron's announcement, hundreds of anti-far-right protesters gathered at Place de la Republique in Paris, waving flags in support of left-wing and green parties, and chanting slogans against the RN.
Led by 28-year-old politician Jordan Bardella, the RN won approximately 32% of the vote in the June 9th election, more than double the 15% received by Macron's party, according to exit polls. Meanwhile, the Socialist Party also closely followed Macron's party, with 14%.
Ms. Le Pen, widely considered the leading candidate for the 2027 election in which Mr. Macron is unable to run, has welcomed the French president's decision.
She said at a rally: "We are ready to take power if the French people place their trust in us in the upcoming national elections."
It should be noted that Macron's Renaissance Party currently has 169 lawmakers in the Lower House, out of a total of 577; while the RN has 88.
If the RN wins a majority, Macron will still lead defense and foreign policy, but will lose the power to set the domestic agenda, from economic to security policy.
Commenting on the president's move, Green Party MP Sandrine Rousseau said: "Emmanuel Macron is a poker player, we saw that tonight."
"Living together" isn't always pleasant.
Teneo, a consulting firm, commented that "Macron has called for an election that he could lose." The firm suggested that "his ultimate goal may be to deliver an immediate victory for the RN to expose the party's inexperience in government and force them to confront painful political decisions ahead of the 2027 presidential election."
Olivier Blanchard, a former International Monetary Fund official now working at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, assessed that Macron did his best in a "position of weakness."
Blanchard wrote on X: “Either the lack of coherence in the RN’s program becomes apparent during the campaign and the party loses the election, or the RN wins, takes control, and quickly messes things up.”
According to Reuters, Macron's gamble is similar to that of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who called for an early national election last year after the far-right defeated his party in local government elections.
Sanchez managed to retain power, but only after months of infighting with regional parties and a controversial agreement to grant amnesty to Catalan separatists.
France has historically experienced periods of "coexistence," when the president belonged to a political party different from the one holding the majority in parliament. In such cases, the prime minister of the majority party would become France's top domestic decision-maker.
During the most recent period, from 1997-2002, President Jacques Chirac played a secondary role after Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin. At that time, the euro slipped to its lowest level in about a month at the start of Asian trading, reflecting the aforementioned uncertainty.
Returning to the current situation, Macron's decision clearly shows that the past night was a harsh one for centrist parties across Europe, as Eurosceptic nationalists achieved the biggest victory in the European Parliament elections.
The succession battle is heating up.
Le Pen's resounding electoral victory, a 10 percentage point increase over her 2019 EU election results, is likely to attract conservative rebels to the RN, a party with clear momentum.
On the evening of June 9th, Le Pen's niece, Marion Marechal, a political ally of Eric Zemmour and his far-right Reconquete party, said she was preparing to meet with her aunt to discuss a treaty. Marechal stated, "To me, a right-wing coalition seems more necessary than ever."
Le Pen's rise is also likely to fuel the centrist succession battle to find a replacement for Macron.
Political sources indicate that several prominent figures – such as Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin, former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire – are vying for this top position.
Minister Darmanin commented on Macron's announcement: "We will have to ask ourselves and explain to the French people why we haven't been able to listen to them enough."
The results on June 9 also showed the rise of the center-left in France, with Socialist candidate Raphael Glucksmann, a moderate figure, winning around 14%. His achievement will further strengthen the Socialist Party, after it suffered a defeat in the 2017 election against Macron.
