What will happen to Cuba when Raul Castro steps down as president?

Raul Castro. Photo: Reuters

Since the 1959 revolution, the Castro family has held power in this socialist country. After Fidel Castro retired in 2008, his brother Raul took over. Now, with Raul announcing his resignation, his successor, Diaz-Canel, personally chosen by the Cuban Communist Party, is almost certain to replace him as President when the vote takes place on April 19th.

Diaz-Canel will face economic difficulties, as well as the challenge of maintaining relations with U.S. President Donald Trump, who last year took steps that reversed the warming of diplomatic relations between the two sides achieved under the Barack Obama administration.

No policy changes.

Although Castro will no longer hold direct power, he will continue to be involved in politics. Castro will remain the head of the ruling Communist Party until 2021, working behind the scenes to shape the country's policies.

"He remains in a leading position within the party and will control the situation," said Zbigniew Ivanovsky, head of the Center for Political Studies at the Institute of Latin American Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Therefore, it is unlikely that Cuba's new leader will steer the country in a new direction, as noted by Salim Lamrani, Professor of Latin American and Iberian Studies at the University of Paris IV-Sorbonne.

Cuba's healthcare system ranks 23rd in the World Health Organization (WHO) rankings, ahead of developed countries like New Zealand (40) and South Korea (58). Cuba's literacy rate also ranks 3rd in the world.

“There will be no turning point in Cuban policy because the people of this island nation want to maintain the Castro model of society,” Lamrani said. “Cubans want to protect their independence and all the social achievements, such as free education and healthcare, culture for all, and the security that the Cuban Revolution has brought.”

Can Diaz-Canel boost the Cuban economy?

While Cubans have free access to healthcare and education, as well as subsidized food and housing, consumer goods are scarce. Wages in Cuba are only around $20 a month, and there are only 173,000 cars in this nation of 11 million people. Economic growth has stalled in recent years, following an initial surge when Raul Castro introduced some free-market reforms in 2011. Diaz-Canel will need to work hard to repair Cuba's stagnant economy – but finding an easing of sanctions from Washington is unlikely.

“Cuba needs to improve its economic situation, even if the main obstacle to Cuba’s development is the economic sanctions imposed by the United States,” Lamrani said. “Cuba also needs to confront the hostile policies of Trump himself, who has undone the small steps that Barack Obama had taken, and reverted to a policy of confrontation.”

Since 1962, the United States has maintained a comprehensive trade embargo against Cuba. Following Barack Obama's efforts to normalize relations with Cuba, President Trump further tightened sanctions last November, banning most Americans from visiting the island nation.

Without free trade with the U.S., Cuba would need to improve its agricultural production to become self-sufficient. Currently, Cuba imports 80% of its food, so Diaz-Canel certainly has work to do.

“Cuba’s economy can be said to be in a transitional phase, with small businesses and small-scale trade thriving,” Zbigniew observed. Like Lamrani, he called the economy one of Diaz-Canel’s main challenges. “Generally, public opinion is divided: a segment of society and the party leadership believe that reforms must be pushed forward, while the more conservative faction believes there is no need to rush and that it would be a deviation from socialism.”

Cuban armed forces tanks near the site of the Bay of Pigs incident on April 19, 1961. Photo: Reuters

Will the US seek further invasion?

Relations with the US will largely depend on Washington's stance, expert Lamrani also noted. He said: "Cuba has always shown a willingness to have normal and peaceful relations with the US as long as these relations are based on sovereign equality, reciprocity, and non-interference in internal affairs."

For Havana, relations with the United States revolve around two crucial issues. Cuba wants the U.S. to withdraw its naval base at Guantanamo Bay and lift the imposed trade embargo. Washington's position, however, is that Cuba must pursue "democratization" and implement widespread free-market reforms. Ivanovsky cautiously suggests that neither side will achieve their goals: "Most likely, relations will remain at their current level, as the key issues remain unresolved."

The U.S. government has made numerous attempts, both overt and covert, to overthrow the Castro regime since the 1959 revolution. In 1961, the CIA funded and orchestrated the Bay of Pigs incident, in which defectors from Castro's regime attempted a coup with U.S. military assistance.

A resident walks past a wall inscribed with the words "Fidel lives on" in Santiago de Cuba. Photo: Reuters.

The invasion was a complete failure and a major diplomatic embarrassment for Washington. According to Cuban officials, Fidel Castro has since avoided hundreds more assassination attempts. The CIA is alleged to have bribed a former lover to poison Castro, tampered with a cigar to make it explode in his mouth, and at one point even sent the Cuban leader a poisoned milkshake.

According to Lamrani, the U.S. is now unlikely to undertake any further reckless intervention, and will instead opt for a less direct approach. “The Trump administration will try to overthrow Cuban society,” Lamrani speculates. “But the result will be the same as with other administrations: complete failure.”