Where will the situation in Syria go?

"EXCUSES" OF THE US AND ITS ALLIES

Chemical weapons trick

Starting from April 7, the Syrian American Medical Association and rebel forces in Eastern Ghouta, on the outskirts of the capital Damascus, simultaneously accused the Syrian army of carrying out a chemical weapons attack in the town of Douma, killing at least 49 people in this area.

Immediately after that, the media and Western humanitarian organizations flooded with information that the Syrian government army had used the banned substance, Chlorine gas, which was very strong, causing the death toll to increase to a terrifying number, from 50 to 70 people.

US State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said the reports, if confirmed, would be horrifying and require an immediate response from the international community. Ms. Nauert said Russia must ultimately bear responsibility for these attacks.

On April 8, despite the lack of any concrete evidence behind the allegations, President Trump threatened that the Damascus government and Syria's two close allies, Russia and Iran, would have to pay "a very high price".

Immediately after the US announced that it was leaving open the possibility of attacking Syria, British Prime Minister Theresa May affirmed her support for the US decision by loudly warning that President Assad and his backers (including Russia) “will have to face the consequences” if it is true that they attacked with poison gas on the town of Douma controlled by opposition rebels.

Despite Russia’s calls for restraint and a joint investigation, the baseless accusations from the US and its allies continue to “resound”. Despite Russia’s repeated requests, no parties have been able to provide any solid evidence of the chemical attack by the Syrian army.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova once condemned: "The White House believes in the possibility of Syria using chemical weapons in Damascus based only on media information such as videos and images reporting symptoms, without providing specific, reliable evidence. The US and Western media agencies should see and understand their responsibility when making these accusations."

Ignite the war

The incident became more serious when, in the early morning of April 9, two F-151 heavy fighter jets of the Israeli Air Force (IAF) launched an attack with 8 cruise missiles on Tiyas military airport, in the southern part of Homs province, Syria.

The Israeli air force's airstrikes deep into Syrian territory have raised concerns in the international community about the risk that the US and its allies will switch from words to military action against the Damascus government, putting the Assad government in a "thousand-pound" situation when it is at risk of facing an attack by the US's "new, smart" Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Russia and Syria have strongly denied the chemical attack in Douma. The Kremlin described the incident as a “clear provocation” as Syrian government forces prepare to take full control of the Eastern Ghouta region, clearing the last “strongholds” from the gates of the capital Damascus.

Not only that, Russian chemical weapons experts in coordination with the Red Crescent Organization have arrived at the site of the alleged chemical weapons attack to open an investigation. And Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has stated that the experts have not found any traces of chlorine gas or any other chemical weapons in Douma.

Russian leaders have said the incident was a “dirty plot” by the West against Russia and the Assad regime. Once again, Washington is fabricating the incident to justify an attack on Damascus, as it did in April 2017.

The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) has been conducting investigations into the use of chemical weapons in Syria, but so far, the organization has not found any solid evidence of violations by the Government of this Middle Eastern country.

OVERVIEW OF THE ATTACK ON SYRIA

From left to right: British Prime Minister Theresa May, US President Donald Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron. Photo: Internet

After the noisy statements, on April 13 local time, from the White House Diplomatic Room, Mr. Trump declared: "I ordered the United States armed forces to begin precision strikes on targets associated with the chemical weapons capabilities of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad."

In an update on April 14, Pentagon spokeswoman Dana White said the attack “was successful, hitting every target” and that the allies “used every measure and were careful” to only hit the intended targets. “We achieved our objectives. We hit chemical weapons program sites, centers. So, mission accomplished,” she said.

US Lieutenant General Kenneth McKenzie confirmed that no aircraft or missiles in this campaign were successfully intercepted by Syrian air defenses. There was also no sign that Russian air defenses were deployed.

Meanwhile, Syria and its military backer Russia gave a different assessment.

Russian Lieutenant General Sergey Rudskoy told reporters that Syrian air defense systems intercepted 71 out of 103 cruise missiles that Russia said were fired by its Western allies.

Rudskoy also said that initial sources confirmed that there were no casualties among civilians or the Syrian army. However, a number of Syrian air bases, industrial sites and research facilities were damaged in the attack.

The only similarity between the two sides after the attack was the number of casualties, with Syrian state TV reporting three civilians with minor injuries. The Pentagon confirmed that it had not recorded any civilian casualties as of the morning of April 14, US time.

What weapons and equipment are being used?

At least one US Navy warship operating in the Red Sea participated in the April 13 US time attack, along with US B-1 bombers, military and defense officials told CNN.

The Pentagon confirmed that 105 missiles were launched in the attack on Syria. These included 30 Tomahawk missiles launched from the USS Monterey and 7 missiles launched from the USS Laboon in the Red Sea. Another 23 Tomahawk missiles were launched from the USS Higgins in the northern Arabian Gulf.

The submarine USS John Warner launched six Tomahawk missiles from the eastern Mediterranean and a French destroyer in the same area launched three more missiles, the Pentagon said.

The air strike included two US B-1 Lancer bombers, which fired 19 combined air-to-ground attack missiles. The British also deployed Tornado and Typhoon aircraft, which fired eight Storm Shadow missiles, while French Rafale and Mirage fighters launched nine SCALP missiles.

Meanwhile, according to the British Ministry of Defence, four Royal Air Force Tornado GR4s were used in the attacks, launching Storm Shadow missiles at a “former missile base site – approximately 24 km west of Homs”.

The world community speaks out in unison

As a military organization that receives 55% of its total spending from the US, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization immediately voiced its support for the US. However, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that most NATO members will not participate in the campaign in Syria.

The United Nations Security Council held an emergency meeting at Russia's request. Photo: Reuters

Meanwhile, Britain and France not only voiced their absolute support for the US, but also ordered their military forces to concentrate on coordinating with US allies to attack targets and weaken Syria's plan to use chemical weapons.

British Prime Minister Theresa May stressed that there was no alternative to military action. “This military action would not only protect innocent people in Syria from the horrific deaths caused by chemical weapons, but also protect international norms from being eroded.”

French President Emmanuel Macron expressed gratitude to the military for its “excellent performance” in Syria. According to him, all missiles launched in the operation achieved their targets, and this can be considered a military success. President Macron assessed that the attack was legal, the international community intervened at the right time and “conducted in a multilateral format”.

In contrast to the supportive views of NATO, Britain and France, Czech President Milos Zeman declared that the missile attack on Syria only proves the foolishness of the West.

“It was stupid. That's the mildest word I can use to describe it.”

President Milos Zeman

According to the Czech leader, the sudden attack was carried out in violation of international regulations, destabilizing the situation in Syria, while the country had just begun to show signs of a peaceful life.

Russia seriously condemns, Syria steadfast

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on April 14 that the Kremlin “seriously condemns” the attack on Syria, which he called an “act of aggression against a sovereign state… at the frontline of the fight against terrorism” and a violation of the UN Charter and the norms and principles of international law.

At an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council called by Russia on April 14, the Putin administration failed to secure enough votes for a resolution condemning “the aggression of the United States and its allies against the Syrian Arab Republic in violation of international law and the United Nations Charter.”

Russian President Putin and his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad.

After the session, Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia called the day’s events “a blow to the political solution” of the Syrian crisis. “I hope that hot heads will cool down and we can rebuild what has been destroyed,” he told reporters. The US, France and Britain had engaged in “diplomacy of confusion, hypocrisy and lies.”

Bashar Jaafari, Syria's Ambassador to the United Nations, accused the three countries of the United States, Britain and France of destroying international peace and security, and asked to send copies of the UN Charter to the representatives of these countries so that they can "enlighten themselves and awaken from their ignorance and violence".

At the meeting, US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley accused Russia of covering up for the Syrian government and affirmed that Washington continues to maintain its readiness to strike again in response to new chemical attacks.

The Syrian president insists air strikes will not stop him from “fighting terrorism” across the country, Syrian state media says.

The Syrian Foreign Ministry said the coordinated airstrikes by the US, UK and France were “a flagrant violation of international law and the principles of the UN Charter”.

Previously, the Syrian President's office posted on Twitter a video of Mr. Assad going to work on April 14, with the caption "a steadfast morning."

صباح الصمود..

رئاسة الجمهورية العربىةpic.twitter.com/hhIZT6cOTe

— Syrian Presidency (@Presidency_Sy)April 14, 2018

An official with the US-led coalition fighting IS in Syria said pro-government and Russian forces in Syria have not given any signal that they will retaliate against US and allied troops in the country.

General McKenzie said the Pentagon had not seen any military response from inside Syria but the US remained ready to respond to any potential threat to allied forces.

Meanwhile, a Pentagon spokeswoman warned that Russia was spreading disinformation. “The Russian disinformation campaign has begun. In the last 24 hours, the number of Russian posts has increased by 2,000%, so we will keep everyone updated on the real situation that is happening,” she said on April 14.

THE BALANCE OF POWER DOES NOT CHANGE

103 missiles including Tomahawk cruise missiles and air-to-ground missiles for the lightning airstrike on April 14, but it seems that the US could not change the situation in Syria in the tug-of-war between the major powers. The attack was only a factor causing disruption in the situation in Syria, but only to a limited extent.

The sky over Damascus, Syria during an airstrike recently conducted by the US. Photo: MSN

The Washington Post commented on April 14 that the attack in the early morning of April 14 showed that the US still did not have a clear strategy for the Syria issue. The US is now once again in a worrying situation like after the attack on Syria in April 2017. The newspaper also said that the above action was just an overzealous act of President Trump, and did not achieve the goal of reducing the influence of rival Russia in the Middle East region.

The press in the Middle East also commented that if the US considers this a key moment to carry out a military action in Syria, it will be equally key for the US to avoid repeating an attack that will not lead to any results. Invisibly, the US has reduced its image and influence on this battlefield.

Meanwhile, before the attack took place, Russia was informed by the West, and Russia even informed Syria to prepare for the attack. The attack targets were evacuated before the missiles were launched. That explains why more than 100 missiles were launched, but Syria did not suffer any heavy losses. The cruise missiles of the US-UK-France coalition all avoided passing through the area of ​​Russia's air defense network in Syria. It can be seen that the US is very afraid of touching Russia, because it will lead to a direct military confrontation.

Russia has strongly criticized the military actions of the US and its allies, and proposed a draft resolution to the UN Security Council, but has not taken any military "response" action, which is considered by observers as a wise calculation. Russia deployed the S-400 air defense system in Syria to protect its military facilities there, not to protect all facilities of its Syrian allies. For that reason, Russia did not activate the S-400 when the US launched Tomahawks.

The balance of power between the parties remains unchanged after this attack. The US is unlikely to launch further large-scale attacks that would damage Russia in Syria, and Russia will avoid drastic moves that could trigger an uncontrolled direct military clash.

The Syrian problem can only be solved when the parties dialogue and cooperate with each other through a political solution, otherwise this Islamic country will continue to face a protracted civil war with no end in sight.

Let me conclude with a quote from former US President Barack Obama: “Bombing someone just to prove that you are willing to bomb them is the worst reason for military action.”