The AI ​​Revolution: Health, Wealth, and a World of Jobless People

To maintain a smoothly functioning economy and prevent widespread social unrest, Roubini predicts that governments will implement universal basic income (UBI), which are unconditional subsidies replacing the existing social security system, unemployment benefits, and other welfare programs. To fund this program, AI would be taxed, helping to offset some of the costs.

While Roubini's prediction that most jobs will disappear within 20 years may seem overly optimistic, he believes that AI will ultimately completely change the nature of work as we know it.

As traditional jobs disappear, people will gravitate towards a more meaningful and purposeful lifestyle. In this context, the healthcare industry, encompassing mental, physical, and spiritual well-being, could become the sector that benefits most from this transformation.

Amara's Law

In the 1970s, American researcher and futurist Roy Amara made a famous statement about human adaptation to technology, known as Amara's Law: "We tend to overestimate the impact of technology in the short term, but underestimate its impact in the long term."

AI is a clear example of this law. Invented in the 1960s, many scientists at the time predicted that AI would surpass humans in every field by the 1980s.

However, reality has proven that they were more than half a century ahead of their time. Today, experts predict that by 2030, AI will surpass humans in most fields.

While it's too early to say for sure, current advances suggest that AI, combined with large-scale automation and robotics, is bringing us closer to Roubini's predicted scenario of the end of most repetitive jobs. What is happening in East Asia, particularly China, is a living prophecy of the future.

Currently, China possesses nearly 2 million industrial robots, accounting for more than half of the global total. Beyond just scale, Chinese manufacturers have created AI robots capable of performing a wide range of tasks, from planting and harvesting crops to installing and cleaning solar panels.

In addition, the level of automation in China is reaching new limits, such as:

- Over 90% of the processes in the production of electronics, batteries, solar panels, containers, and warehousing have been automated.

The most modern electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing plants can assemble a car in just 30 seconds.

BYD, the Chinese electric vehicle giant, has deployed 500 multi-tasking humanoid robots capable of doing everything from sorting components and tightening screws to performing product quality checks using AI.

At the same time, the role of humans in supply chains and production lines is shrinking. By 2030, China is projected to account for nearly half of global manufacturing output, largely thanks to its leading position in automation and AI.

Thus, technology is not only changing the way we work, but it is reshaping the very concept of "work" for humanity.

AI is not just about optimizing production and logistics.which is reshaping the entire labor market.

The remarkable advances in Big Language Modeling (LLM), such as the US's ChatGPT or China's DeepSeek, are revealing a worrying reality: very few jobs remain secure against the wave of automation.

Today, LLMs are not only capable of writing articles or technical documents, but can also review contracts, analyze medical images, and automate software testing—tasks traditionally performed by humans.

Mark Zuckerberg, the founder of Facebook, predicted in an interview last month that AI could begin replacing software engineers as early as this year.

He emphasized: "AI will take over the work of mid-level engineers this year. We will soon reach a point where the majority of the source code in applications and AI will be developed by AI engineers themselves, rather than humans."

With its current rate of evolution, AI is not only assisting humans but is gradually replacing us in many fields.

AI and abundance: What about basic income?Is universality the solution?

Economist Nouriel Roubini supports the views of futurist Peter Diamandis, co-author of the bestselling book "Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think".(Rough translation: Prosperity: A better future than you think).

According to Diamandis, we are approaching a point where we can meet all the essential needs of people worldwide, ushering in an era of "abundance" for all.

Like Roubini, Diamandis believes that AI, robotics, and advanced technology will revolutionize manufacturing, creating a nearly limitless supply of consumer goods at ever-decreasing costs.

This could lead to a deflationary effect, resulting in lower living costs. However, the biggest problem isn't production, but keeping the economy running as wealth inequality worsens.

Economic inequality has reached record levels and could continue to rise without intervention. This is why Roubini believes that universal basic income (UBI) will become an inevitable necessity.

He argued that AI could generate massive wealth to fund UBI, ensuring people still have purchasing power even as traditional jobs gradually disappear.

Recognizing the immense impact of AI, many tech leaders such as Elon Musk, Sam Altman (OpenAI), and Jack Dorsey (co-founder of Twitter) have voiced their support for UBI. Large corporations like Google, Apple, and Cisco have even funded pilot projects for this model.

A study by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) emphasizes that the timing of UBI implementation is crucial. Implementing it too early could negatively impact a country's competitiveness.

Furthermore, for UBI to be truly effective, it cannot operate in isolation but needs to be accompanied by major reforms to the tax system and social safety net.

Health for everyone

Sooner or later, a world without jobs will become a pivotal moment in human history.

If the 20th century saw machines diminish the economic value of physical strength, the 21st century will see AI challenge the value of specialized knowledge, from accounting and architecture to law.

For many people, work is not just a means of earning a living, but also a part of their identity, defining their social status and providing a sense of accomplishment. As the security of employment gradually disappears, society will need to seek new values ​​and a more meaningful way of life.

In particular, the healthcare industry, with its focus on mental, spiritual, and physical health, could be one of the biggest beneficiaries.

This sector is projected to grow by 9% to 12.5% ​​over the next decade, far outpacing overall economic growth. Beyond providing traditional healthcare services, the industry is expanding into areas such as community health experiences, group therapy, mindfulness training, and holistic mindset development programs.

While AI may impact the healthcare industry, jobs requiring compassion and human connection will largely be protected from the wave of automation.

East Asia has demographic reasons to lead the AI ​​revolution. Japan, with an average age of 49 and a continuing rise, is approaching a 1:1 ratio of workers to dependents within the next 20 years. China and South Korea also face similar demographic challenges.

Despite having the world's oldest population, East Asia has the potential to be a pioneer in the post-labor era. The region not only produces the majority of the hardware needed for Industry 4.0 but is also not burdened by the same skepticism about AI as the West.

China has even proactively integrated AI into education, preparing future generations to adapt to the new world. Last December, the Chinese Ministry of Education issued guidelines requiring primary school students to become familiar with and experience AI, while secondary school students are trained to understand and apply AI concepts in practice.