How did Bin Laden's secret meeting 30 years ago change the world?

Osama Bin Laden at a press conference in Khost, Afghanistan in 1998. Photo: AP

As a result of this group's terrorist activities, the United States has seen the deadliest attack ever on its soil, entered a war that has now lasted 17 years, spent an estimated $2.8 trillion defending itself against attack, and seen its politics change in fundamental ways to this day.

After that initial meeting, al-Qaeda records say, “al-Qaeda operations began on September 10, 1988,” exactly 30 years ago.

One day in August 20 years ago, there was no doubt that al-Qaeda intended to launch a global war against the United States when the group bombed the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, killing 224 people.

Seventeen years ago today, al-Qaeda claimed the lives of 2,977 people in the United States.

Against this backdrop of historical violence, what is the threat posed by jihadist terrorists to America today?

In a new report, New America finds that, since the 9/11 attacks, the jihadist threat has changed dramatically.

The World Trade Center on fire on September 11, 2001. Photo: AP

Avoid other attacks

Al-Qaeda has not successfully carried out a deadly attack inside the United States since that day 17 years ago. Nor has any foreign jihadist terrorist organization.

It was a testament to the great success of America's counterterrorism efforts since 9/11. Few analysts in the months and years since the event dared to predict that America would be so successful in avoiding attacks.

Thanks to the efforts of law enforcement, intelligence, and military agencies, as well as greater public awareness, the threat to the U.S. homeland is now much lower than it was on 9/11. This has certainly come at the cost of trillions of dollars in spending, unprecedented security measures at airports and other public venues, and a public debate about immigration and law enforcement.

Yet the United States faces a new and different jihadist threat: individuals motivated by jihadist ideology but not directed by a foreign terrorist organization. According to research by New America, these individuals have carried out 13 attacks in the United States, killing 104 people and injuring 11 others.

The rise of the al-Qaeda splinter group, the Islamic State (IS), has taken this threat to a new level. Three-quarters of the people killed by jihadist extremists in the United States since September 11, 2001, have died since 2014, the year IS declared its “caliphate.” Eight of the 13 deadliest attacks in the United States since September 11 took place during that time, and seven were at least partially motivated by IS propaganda. In 2015, an unprecedented 80 Americans were charged with jihadist terrorism-related crimes, most motivated in some way by IS.

Yet even at the height of its power in Iraq and Syria, IS did not carry out deadly attacks in the United States.

As IS loses territory in Syria and Iraq, the threat to the United States has faded. The number of jihadist terrorist attacks involving U.S. citizens has fallen each year from 80 in 2015. By the end of August, only eight Americans had been charged with jihadist terrorism-related crimes in 2018.

Osama Bin Laden (right) and his deputy Ayman Al-Zawahri on April 17, 2002. Photo: AP

Foreign fighters

Despite widespread fears about the threat posed by “foreign fighters”—Westerners who join IS and other groups abroad—few Americans have successfully “crossed over” to IS. And even fewer have been able to return home. There is only one documented case of an American who fought in Syria or Iraq plotting violence after returning to the US, and none of those who returned have actually carried out an attack.

But Americans should not assume that the threat will disappear with the fall of IS. This lesson was learned from the case of Sayfullo Saipov, a 29-year-old Uzbek-American who killed eight people in a truck attack on a Manhattan bike lane in October 2017, the same month that the self-proclaimed capital of Raqqa was liberated by US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces.

In fact, the jihadist terrorist challenge facing the United States may not be driven solely by jihadist ideology. Many jihadist attackers have personal problems, including histories of non-political violence and mental health issues, and some appear to be influenced by a variety of ideologies other than jihadism.

The US also faces the threat of public violence motivated by ideologies other than jihad, including far-right violence, which has killed 73 people since 9/11.

Photo of the Pentagon taken two days after the September 11 terrorist attack. Photo: Internet

What should America do?

One thing that should not be done, according to CNN, is to pursue the immigration-centric approach to counterterrorism proposed by the Trump administration and the travel ban that the US President should have ended. The threat to the US today is “internal” and not the result of external intrusion.

What America needs to do is take advantage of the opportunity as IS loses territory in Syria and Iraq to reassess and answer fundamental questions about its approach to counterterrorism.

The Trump administration has not publicly released a counterterrorism strategy, and the United States continues to wage war under a 17-year-old Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF); the reference to ISIS, a splinter group from al-Qaeda and many of whose members were not yet born or were children at the time of 9/11, remains an open question. The Trump administration should release a counterterrorism strategy, and Congress should pass an updated authorization for the use of military force.

The Trump administration is said to have made major changes to policies regarding counterterrorism strikes, decentralizing authority to commanders and dropping the requirement that targets pose an “imminent threat” to the American people. The administration should issue new guidance on strikes, as the Obama administration did when it released the President’s Policy Guidance on Counterterrorism Strikes.

The Trump administration continues to seek to prevent immigration from Muslim countries. Photo: AP

The US has spent $2.8 trillion on counterterrorism efforts, including the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria since 9/11 – about 15% of government spending over the same period – and has not consistently accounted for its spending. The US should conduct a review and audit of its counterterrorism spending since 9/11.

Addressing these fundamental issues will be essential as, despite losing territory, IS and even al-Qaeda continue to demonstrate the ability to resurgent, largely due to persistent instability in the Middle East and North Africa.

IS has directed five attacks in Europe since 2014, killing more people than jihadists have killed in the US since 9/11.

Aviation remains a key target. IS killed 224 people when it planted a bomb on a flight from Egypt to Russia in October 2015.

The increased use of drones by terrorist groups and the choice of vehicle crashes by many groups shows the “potential for innovation” from America’s terrorist enemies.

More than a quarter of Americans are too young to remember the September 11 attacks, and one in five Americans were not even born when they happened. Yet those attacks continue to shape much of how the US military, intelligence, and law enforcement operate. And they will continue to impact American politics in fundamental ways.