The $5 billion bargain and the 'test' of the US-South Korea alliance

The bargain failed.

The US-South Korea negotiations on defense cost sharing have been underway for a long time. The US wants South Korea to be a model for further negotiations on cost sharing with other allies, such as in Europe. However, the negotiations that Washington was looking forward to did not have the satisfactory results as expected. The meeting was initially scheduled to last for 1 day for the parties to negotiate and find a unified solution, but after just over an hour of discussion, the US delegation "left" because "the South Korean side did not meet the request for fair sharing of the security cost burden".

South Korean and US officials attend defense cost-sharing talks in Seoul on November 18, 2019. Photo: Yonhap

Specifically, Washington wants Seoul to contribute $5 billion per year to maintain more than 28,000 US troops in South Korea. This amount is five times the amount the South Korean government currently contributes to the US. It is unclear what the “new items” that the US side is demanding to increase costs are. But according to Yonhap, this item will include personnel costs for US soldiers in South Korea, costs to support soldiers and their families, costs for the rotational deployment of US soldiers on the Korean Peninsula and overseas training costs…

In fact, it is difficult to accurately estimate whether the $5 billion figure is a “balanced” fee. The South Korean side said that they are willing to pay more money for the US to maintain a military presence and ensure their security, but within an “acceptable level” and $5 billion is too high. Meanwhile, the US Secretary of Defense has the opinion that “South Korea is a rich country, can and should pay more” for maintaining US troops in this country.

Photo: Reuters

Although not publicly stated, it seems that both the US and South Korea are looking for “reasons” for their own demands and requests. The US believes that its military presence in South Korea will help Seoul deal with the “threat” from neighboring North Korea. If the budget is not increased, the US will withdraw its troops and that will not affect US security, but for South Korea, it is “a life-or-death situation” because theoretically South Korea and North Korea are still in a state of war. However, South Korea believes that inter-Korean relations are warming up, and direct threats from its northern neighbor have somewhat subsided. In addition, the majority of people in the country oppose increasing military spending for the US, which forces the Seoul government to weigh the pros and cons.

Where is the value of alliance?

From both sides, the failure of the defense cost negotiations has disappointed both South Korea and the United States. For the United States, President Donald Trump has long maintained that “the United States is not the global police,” and that any country that wants to be protected by Washington must “pay.” The United States is expected to begin negotiations to re-share defense costs with Japan, Germany, and NATO in 2020. South Korea is the first “test” partner of the Trump administration on this issue. Therefore, this failure will have a major impact on Washington’s plans because “if the beginning is not good, the end will be difficult to achieve.”

US President Donald Trump and his South Korean counterpart Moon Jae In. Photo: AFP

The remaining US partners will certainly monitor President Trump's "behavior" with South Korea to make appropriate preparations.

Previously, Mr. Trump hinted that he might withdraw US troops if South Korea did not agree to share the security burden. If the US carries out its threat, it will create a major rift in the US-South Korea alliance, deeply affecting Washington’s foreign and security policy in Northeast Asia. Meanwhile, if negotiations with Seoul continue without results, the US will find it difficult to have the “prestige” to enter into negotiations on similar topics with other allies.

As for South Korea, the current US administration’s “excessive” demand for defense cost-sharing will cause the country to question its nearly seven-decade alliance with Washington. The dispute over the cost of supporting US troops stationed in South Korea has sparked heated debate in the country’s parliament. A group of South Korean activists said the US demand was “unreasonable” and called for a major reduction or even withdrawal of US troops.

Counterfeit bills with the image of US President Donald Trump are displayed on the street as protesters gather near the US Embassy in Seoul to protest against US demands that Seoul increase spending on hosting US troops there. Photo: AP

This group believes that the US forces in South Korea are also for their benefit to contain Russia and China, not just to ensure Seoul's security. A South Korean official did not hesitate to ask, "Has the US become a mercenary? Is this a business deal?" Although each side has its own arguments for its point of view, the recent failure of the US-South Korea negotiations will certainly have a negative impact on this alliance in the context that the US and South Korea both need each other to solve the common problem, which is the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula.

It can be said that the principle of “reciprocity” is completely normal in international relations, but the US’s request for allies to pay more for security assurances seems to affect the prestige and global role of this country. And in fact, from this move, Washington’s allies are questioning whether the US measures the “value of allies” in money?!

US and South Korean troops participate in a joint exercise. Photo: AFP